| 候选人 | 当地时间 | | 观点言论 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沃勒 | 7/18 | | 美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作，而非总统的言论。 | | | 7/30 | . | 7 月降息 25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。 | | (美联储现任理 | 8/1 | . | 我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎，在我看来，没有正确平衡经济前景的风险，可能导致政策落后 | | 章） | | | 于形势变化。 | | | 8/1 | . | 美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。 | | 哈塞特 | 7/14 | | 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 | | (白宫国家经济 | 7/16 | ● | 美联储需要重新调整利率的路径,明确利率应当达到的水平。 | | 委员会主任 ) | 8/6 | . | 特朗普的首要任务是维护美联储的独立性。 | | | | . | （被问及美联储职位相关问题时）乐于探讨这一挑战。 | | | 7/17 | . | 如果由一个人领导美联储和财政部，协议会更容易达成。 | | 沃什 (美联储前理事) ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase yesterday but saw a slight pullback today, indicating a cooling of bullish sentiment [1] - The Trump tax reform has passed in the Senate and is awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives, raising concerns about ongoing fiscal implications for gold [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 76% and bearish sentiment of 24% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 85% and bearish sentiment of 15% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 42% and bearish sentiment of 58% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 49% and bearish sentiment of 51% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 16% and bearish sentiment of 84% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 29% and bearish sentiment of 71% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 7% and bearish sentiment of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair has a bullish sentiment of 92% and bearish sentiment of 8% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 17% and bearish sentiment of 83% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a balanced sentiment of 50% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 36% and bearish sentiment of 64% [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 89% and bearish sentiment of 11% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a balanced sentiment of 50% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 63% and bearish sentiment of 37% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 77% and bearish sentiment of 23% [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 42% and bearish sentiment of 58% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 67% and bearish sentiment of 33% [4] - The USD/CNH pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 19% and bearish sentiment of 81% [4]

Core Insights - The main uncertainty for oil prices this week will be related to tariff news and trade negotiations between the US and the EU [1] Group 1: Oil Market Reaction - Oil prices rose during early Asian trading on Monday following President Trump's extension of the deadline for trade negotiations with the EU, alleviating concerns about potential tariffs impacting global economic growth and fuel demand [1] - Analyst Tony Sycamore from IG Markets noted that the extension led to an increase in both oil and US stock futures [1] Group 2: Risk Factors - Trade and tariff news, along with ongoing fiscal concerns, are expected to be the primary factors influencing market sentiment and oil prices throughout the week [1]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance's Deputy Minister has indicated that fiscal concerns are currently impacting inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Minister's comments highlight the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation, suggesting that uncertainties in fiscal management are leading to increased inflation expectations [1]