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“弱美元”:来到十字路口
2025-07-29 02:10
"弱美元":来到十字路口 20250728 摘要 Q&A 上半年美元走弱受美国经济增速下修幅度大于全球、特朗普关税政策冲 击及美联储降息预期影响。IMF 数据显示美国经济预测下调幅度较大, 关税政策力度强且不确定性高,通胀数据不及预期加剧降息预期。 下半年关税对美国经济的负面冲击预计减弱,二季度美国 GDP 数据表现 出韧性,就业市场稳定。需密切关注 CPI 中的结构性商品压力,通胀压 力或影响美联储降息决策。 美联储面临降息与推迟降息的双向风险,降息紧迫性来自政治压力,但 通胀水平不支持快速降息。货币政策的不确定性源于经济状况变化及特 朗普干预美联储独立性的风险。 美国赤字率较高时通常伴随弱美元,净利息支出占 GDP 比重上升也倾向 于导致美元走弱。CBO 预测未来美国利息支出占 GDP 比重将上升,暗 示财政压力下美元可能走弱。 2025 年美国关税收入预计达 2,500 亿美元,未来十年关税政策或增加 2.5 万亿美元收入。尽管"大而美法案"增加赤字,但关税收入可在一 定程度上缓解财政压力。 今年上半年美元汇率的表现如何?有哪些核心因素影响了美元的走势? 今年上半年,美元呈现出弱势,美元指数大约在 98 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250722
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:41
Hot News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will be implemented on September 15, 2025, emphasizing market - government cooperation and regulating housing rental enterprises [2] - On July 21, the National Energy Administration released June's electricity consumption data, showing a 5.4% year - on - year increase, with varying growth rates in different industries [2] - At a press conference on July 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun had no information on the possible meeting between Chinese and US heads of state [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are coking coal, soda ash, asphalt, rapeseed meal, and glass [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity futures sectors shows varying growth rates, with the precious metals sector having the highest growth rate of 28.87%, followed by the coal - coking - steel - ore sector at 14.71% and the oil - and - fat sector at 12.44% [4] Major Asset Performance - Different types of major assets have different daily, monthly, and annual growth rates. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily increase of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 3.35%, and an annual increase of 6.21%; the precious metals like London spot gold have excellent performance with an annual increase of 29.44% [6]
国会预算办公室:特朗普税法将使美国赤字增加3.4万亿美元
news flash· 2025-07-21 18:30
美国国会预算办公室(CBO,无党派机构)估计,总统特朗普近期签字为法律的税收和支出法案(大 漂亮法案)将在十年内使美国赤字增加3.4万亿美元。根据国会预算办公室的分析,该法案包括削减医 疗补助等支出,以及一些条款,这些条款将导致到2034年1000万美国人失去医疗保险。国会预算办公室 的评分反映,与现行法律基准相比,到2034年,美国收入将减少4.5万亿美元,支出将减少1.1亿美元。 ...
【comex黄金库存】7月3日COMEX黄金库较上一交易日减持8.17吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-07 11:28
Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1144.16 tons on July 3, a decrease of 8.17 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at 3346.50 USD/ounce on July 4, up 0.31%, with an intraday high of 3355.00 USD/ounce and a low of 3332.80 USD/ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fiscal legislation proposed by Trump aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent and introduces new tax deductions, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay [2] - The legislation includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for low-income Americans to qualify, and tightens food stamp regulations [2] - The bill allocates over 46 billion USD for border security and immigration enforcement, while raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion USD [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the new fiscal legislation will increase the U.S. deficit by 3.4 trillion USD over the next decade [2] - The national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 97.8% to over 125%, significantly higher than the CBO's earlier forecast of 117.1% [2]