2月13日，美国财长贝森特在 CNBC 节目中发表讲话。 贝森特建议谈及美联储提名人沃什，称参议院银行委员会也调查美联储相关项目。推进参议院听证会非 常重要。 "我们认为已就听证会达成一致。任何关心美联储的人都希望看到政策的连续性。" 他指出，"债券市场如此平静，是因为我们正在整顿财政。2025年GDP增长率很有可能达到3%。通胀可 能在2026年年中回到2%左右。" 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 贝森特谈就业问题，称这是特朗普重归私有化经济计划的一部分。谈及美国赤字称，他更相信市场，而 不是国会预算办公室（CBO）的预测。 他称自己刚刚与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔通过话，并补充道"我们将看看关税是否会有所'缩窄'"。他 还表示，任何最终决定都将由总统做出。 持续更新中…… ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of tariffs** on the dollar's performance in the global market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Performance**: The dollar has weakened significantly in the first half of the year, with the dollar index around 98, influenced by a larger downward revision of U.S. economic growth compared to global growth, Trump's tariff policies, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][4][6]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: The IMF revised U.S. economic growth forecasts from 2.7% to 1.8%, while global growth was adjusted from 3.3% to 2.8%. This indicates a more significant impact on the U.S. economy compared to the global economy [2][4]. 3. **Tariff Policy Impact**: Trump's tariffs have had a strong and uncertain impact, particularly following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. However, the negative impact on the U.S. economy is expected to diminish in the second half of the year due to new trade agreements [4][5]. 4. **Federal Reserve's Dilemma**: The Fed faces a dual risk of needing to cut rates due to political pressure while inflation levels do not support rapid cuts. The market anticipates two rate cuts in the second half, but the timing remains uncertain [6][7][17]. 5. **Fiscal Pressure and Dollar Weakness**: High deficit rates typically correlate with a weak dollar. The CBO predicts that interest payments as a percentage of GDP will rise, indicating potential future dollar weakness [7][9]. 6. **Tariff Revenue Projections**: U.S. tariff revenue is expected to reach $250 billion in 2025, with a potential increase of $2.5 trillion over the next decade, which may alleviate some fiscal pressures despite the "Big and Beautiful" plan increasing the deficit [9][17]. 7. **Global Fund Allocation Trends**: There has been a shift in global fund allocation, with a reduction in stock holdings and an expansion in bond holdings. The "American exceptionalism" narrative is reversing, but the dollar's status as a reserve currency remains strong [3][11][14]. 8. **Stablecoin Development**: The development of stablecoins is crucial for maintaining the dollar's reserve status in the cryptocurrency space, with the U.S. government taking steps to ensure its dominance [15]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Monitoring**: Attention is needed on structural pressures within the CPI, as rising inflation could complicate the Fed's decision-making regarding rate cuts [6][7]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Future Trends**: The market sentiment may experience a reversal in the second half of the year, with potential fluctuations in the dollar's value as it navigates between 95 and 100 [18]. 3. **Long-term Fiscal Outlook**: While there are concerns about long-term debt and fiscal health, short-term impacts on the dollar are expected to be manageable due to measures taken by the current administration [17].

Hot News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will be implemented on September 15, 2025, emphasizing market - government cooperation and regulating housing rental enterprises [2] - On July 21, the National Energy Administration released June's electricity consumption data, showing a 5.4% year - on - year increase, with varying growth rates in different industries [2] - At a press conference on July 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun had no information on the possible meeting between Chinese and US heads of state [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are coking coal, soda ash, asphalt, rapeseed meal, and glass [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity futures sectors shows varying growth rates, with the precious metals sector having the highest growth rate of 28.87%, followed by the coal - coking - steel - ore sector at 14.71% and the oil - and - fat sector at 12.44% [4] Major Asset Performance - Different types of major assets have different daily, monthly, and annual growth rates. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily increase of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 3.35%, and an annual increase of 6.21%; the precious metals like London spot gold have excellent performance with an annual increase of 29.44% [6]

Core Points - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the recent tax and spending bill signed into law by President Trump will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next ten years [1] - The CBO's analysis indicates that the bill includes cuts to Medicaid and provisions that will result in 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034 [1] - According to the CBO's scoring, compared to current law, U.S. revenues will decrease by $4.5 trillion and spending will decrease by $1.1 billion by 2034 [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1144.16 tons on July 3, a decrease of 8.17 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at 3346.50 USD/ounce on July 4, up 0.31%, with an intraday high of 3355.00 USD/ounce and a low of 3332.80 USD/ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fiscal legislation proposed by Trump aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent and introduces new tax deductions, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay [2] - The legislation includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for low-income Americans to qualify, and tightens food stamp regulations [2] - The bill allocates over 46 billion USD for border security and immigration enforcement, while raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion USD [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the new fiscal legislation will increase the U.S. deficit by 3.4 trillion USD over the next decade [2] - The national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 97.8% to over 125%, significantly higher than the CBO's earlier forecast of 117.1% [2]