尽管无人将9月会议作为基本情景下的加息时点，但在风险情境下，约四分之一受访者认为加息可能提前至下月。约60%认为最早10月可能启动加息。 十月成为日本央行最热门的加息时机 智通财经APP注意到，随着美国总统特朗普宣布包括美日贸易协定在内的多项协议，市场对日本贸易前景的预期趋于明朗，日本央行观察人士纷纷提前对下 次加息的预测时点。 最新调查显示，在45位受访经济学家中，约42%预计日本央行将在10月加息，较前次调查的32%显著上升。该调查于7月22日美日贸易协定公布前及日本央 行政策会议前进行。预测明年1月加息的比例微降至三分之一，而预计12月加息的比例翻倍至11%。 日本央行在上周四发布的季度展望报告中，将本财年通胀预测从2.2%大幅上调至2.7%。相较于三个月前仅看到下行风险，央行现在认为物价风险总体平 衡。 | BOJ July forecasts | Core-CPI | Core-core | | --- | --- | --- | | FY25 | 2.7% | | | FY26 | 1.8% | | | FY27 | 2% | | 但植田和男在会后记者会上淡化了报告中的鹰派倾向，反复强调不确定性虽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The results of the Japanese Senate elections have increased uncertainty regarding the future of the Japanese yen, as political dynamics may shift in response to economic pressures [1] Group 1: Election Impact - The Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has pledged to remain in office and continue negotiations on the US-Japan trade agreement, but opposition parties may advocate for expansionary fiscal policies to address public welfare concerns [1] - These expectations have already put pressure on Japanese government bonds prior to the elections, negatively impacting the yen [1] Group 2: Political Risks - There is a risk that Shigeru Ishiba could be replaced by more conservative factions, which may call for the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes [1] - The current upward trend of the yen lacks clear support, indicating potential volatility in the currency's performance [1]