（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月27日电华泰证券研报称，北京时间10月30日（周四）凌晨美联储将公布10月议息会议 决定，由于近期美国就业市场仍延续放缓，而关税对通胀影响较为温和，预计美联储大概率降息25个基 点。 此外，考虑到近期量价指标均指示联储已触及可以停止缩表的转换阈值，且此前美联储已经与市场充分 沟通——不排除鲍威尔10月FOMC即宣布停止缩表的可能性。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced slight fluctuations with a noticeable slowdown in upward and downward momentum, indicating a potential short-term rebound [1] - In September, global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly net inflow on record, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, marking a record high [1] - Central banks globally purchased 890 tons of gold in the first three quarters of the year, the second-highest level in history, despite being slightly lower than the same period in 2024 [1] - The strong buying actions by central banks are seen as a robust support for gold, as countries accelerate diversification of reserve assets in response to U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, reaching a new high for the month, with reports suggesting U.S. actions against oil-producing countries may aim to suppress oil prices [2] - The weakening of oil prices could serve dual purposes: to undermine U.S. adversaries and to bolster domestic support for President Trump [2] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices face significant resistance at previous highs, with potential for a pullback [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Federal Reserve - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to further weaken the dollar [2] - The probability of a rate cut in October is estimated at 98.3%, with a 93.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2] - The Federal Reserve may also announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction, as bank reserves have dropped significantly, raising concerns about liquidity risks [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. September CPI, expected at 3.1%, and the October preliminary PMI, anticipated at 52 [5][6] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October is projected to be 55, reflecting consumer confidence trends [6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced slight fluctuations with a noticeable slowdown in upward and downward momentum, indicating a potential short-term rebound [1] - September saw the largest monthly net inflow into global physical gold ETFs on record, with a total inflow of $26 billion in Q3, marking a historic high [1] - Central banks globally purchased 890 tons of gold in the first three quarters of this year, the second-highest level in history, despite being slightly lower than the same period in 2024 [1] - The attractiveness of gold as a reserve asset is increasing, especially as countries diversify their reserve assets following the U.S. tariff wars [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, reaching a new high for the month, amid reports that the U.S. may intensify sanctions on Russia's oil industry [2] - The U.S. aims to weaken oil prices to create room for its actions without impacting domestic oil prices, which could also help boost President Trump's approval ratings [2] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices face significant resistance at previous highs, with a potential for a pullback [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December is estimated at 93.4%, indicating strong market expectations for continued easing [3] - The Federal Reserve may also halt its balance sheet reduction to prevent liquidity risks in the banking system [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small gain, suggesting that short-term moving averages are providing effective support [5] - The index has broken through significant resistance levels, indicating a high probability of continued upward movement [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices closed with a significant gain, approaching previous highs and forming a continuation pattern [6] - The price has surpassed long-term moving averages, indicating a potential upward trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the NABE annual meeting indicated a shift in monetary policy, with a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months, reflecting concerns over the labor market and inflation pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - Recent non-farm payroll data showed weakness, failing to meet market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to a year-high of 4.3% [3]. - The ADP data corroborated this trend, showing a decline in employment numbers over the past three months, with negative growth reported in September [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Changes - Powell signaled that the Fed may stop its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, marking a potential end to three years of monetary tightening [3]. - This shift aims to ease liquidity constraints and create a more favorable environment for future interest rate cuts, indicating a transition from a focus solely on combating inflation to balancing growth and employment [3]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Despite the dovish signals, Powell reiterated concerns about inflation, particularly the impact of tariffs on price pressures, suggesting that ongoing trade conflicts could complicate the timeline for rate cuts [4].