1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to improve, and domestic supply has room for a small increase. Demand is currently weak due to the traditional off - season, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals are in a state where supply is boosted, demand is weak, but the macro - environment provides support and industry expectations are positive. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,664 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 181,068 lots, down 12,931 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 9,545 lots, down 5,230 lots. The LME copper inventory is 107,125 tons, up 4,625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 84,589 tons, up 3,039 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 38,250 tons, up 1,150 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 21,729 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,610 yuan/ton, down 645 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 15 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 22.37 dollars/ton, down 28.94 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.25 dollars/kiloton, up 0.56 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,900 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,600 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,590 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.89%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.98%, down 0.35%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.66%, up 0.0180%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.63, up 0.1377 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes show that officials have increasing differences in interest - rate prospects. Trump said that Sino - US relations have improved. The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and China's new - energy vehicles have globalization opportunities. In 2024, the number of new - energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million, and the number of innovative drugs under research accounted for about 30% of the global total [2].

周四大多数亚洲货币基本保持稳定，投资者正在消化美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的最新贸易关税举措，同时美联储利 率前景的不确定性进一步导致市场波动有限。 衡量美元对一篮子主要货币的美元指数在亚洲交易时段下跌0.1%，延续了温和跌势。 美元指数期货下跌0.2%。 特朗普本周开始向主要贸易伙伴发送关税信函，并已宣布对韩国和日本等国的商品征收25%的关税。 虽然最近的关税威胁对更广泛市场的影响有限，但交易员仍对潜在的未来贸易升级保持警惕。 韩元兑美元汇率小幅下跌0.1%，而日元兑美元汇率基本保持不变。 在岸人民币和离岸人民币兑美元汇率均基本保持稳定。 特朗普宣布铜关税，提高对巴西关税 特朗普总统周三宣布对铜进口征收50%的关税，将于8月1日生效，称该措施旨在促进国内铜产业发展。 周三早些时候，他还宣布对巴西的互惠关税将从10%上调至50%。 卢拉回应警告称，任何新关税都将面临报复性行动。 新加坡元兑美元汇率也保持平稳，而印度卢比兑美元汇率小幅下跌0.1%。 澳元兑美元汇率上涨0.1%。 大多数政策制定者预计今年晚些时候降息将是适当的。 "美元因此难以找到明确方向，美联储叙事仍是外汇市场的主要驱动因素，"荷兰国际集团(ING) ...