Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for December are expected to show a year-on-year decline, with fixed asset investment continuing to decrease, retail sales growth remaining weak, and export growth slightly declining due to base effects. The GDP growth rate for Q4 is projected at 4.6%, with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.0% [2][8]. Group 1: Retail Sales and Consumption - Retail sales are anticipated to continue low growth, with a 30% year-on-year decline in retail sales of four major home appliances in December. The passenger car retail volume is expected to drop by 12.7% year-on-year, a 4.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to November [3]. - The restaurant industry is experiencing a downturn, with the December restaurant PMI at 42.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is below the average performance from 2010 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is expected to continue, with a projected annual decrease of -3.0% for January to December, compared to -2.6% for the first eleven months [3]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% for the entire year, down from 1.9% in the first eleven months [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate - Infrastructure investment is expected to turn negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.4% for the year. Although there are new policies to support investment, the effects may not be fully realized until early 2026 [4]. - Real estate development investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year decline of -16.5% for the year, with December sales showing a year-on-year drop of 27.3% [4]. Group 4: Exports and Industrial Production - Export growth is expected to decline due to base effects, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.0% in December, down from 5.9% in November. Imports are expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year [5]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in December, influenced by seasonal effects and increased operating rates in major industries [5]. Group 5: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable at 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices showing slight improvements and energy prices declining [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline to -2.0% in December, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting the overall index [7]. Group 6: Financial Data - Social financing and monetary growth are expected to decline, with new loans projected to reach 900 billion yuan in December. The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decrease significantly year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to improve, and domestic supply has room for a small increase. Demand is currently weak due to the traditional off - season, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals are in a state where supply is boosted, demand is weak, but the macro - environment provides support and industry expectations are positive. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,664 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 181,068 lots, down 12,931 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 9,545 lots, down 5,230 lots. The LME copper inventory is 107,125 tons, up 4,625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 84,589 tons, up 3,039 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 38,250 tons, up 1,150 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 21,729 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,610 yuan/ton, down 645 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 15 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 22.37 dollars/ton, down 28.94 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.25 dollars/kiloton, up 0.56 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,900 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,600 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,590 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.89%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.98%, down 0.35%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.66%, up 0.0180%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.63, up 0.1377 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes show that officials have increasing differences in interest - rate prospects. Trump said that Sino - US relations have improved. The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and China's new - energy vehicles have globalization opportunities. In 2024, the number of new - energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million, and the number of innovative drugs under research accounted for about 30% of the global total [2].