Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to operate strongly in the short - term, with attention on the MA5 support and testing the upper 390,000 - yuan mark. The macro - situation involves the US non - farm payrolls in December being lower than expected, leading to market expectations of about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. In China, the December CPI hit a 34 - month high. Fundamentally, the domestic tin ore import supply is tight, processing fees are low, and refined tin production is expected to be limited. The demand side shows that downstream procurement is active, and inventory decline is better than expected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 376,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24,380 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is - 710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan/ton. LME 3 - month tin is at 45,560 US dollars/ton, up 1,810 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 50,635 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 786 lots, an increase of 1,693 lots. LME tin total inventory is 5,415 tons, up 10 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 6,333 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 368,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 370,680 yuan/ton, up 19,980 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,200 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 8,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,890 yuan/ton, up 11,790 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 0.1447 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, with the annual increase being the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. China's December CPI year - on - year increase hit a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by food prices, and the month - on - month increase was due to non - energy industrial consumer goods. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [3]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for December are expected to show a year-on-year decline, with fixed asset investment continuing to decrease, retail sales growth remaining weak, and export growth slightly declining due to base effects. The GDP growth rate for Q4 is projected at 4.6%, with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.0% [2][8]. Group 1: Retail Sales and Consumption - Retail sales are anticipated to continue low growth, with a 30% year-on-year decline in retail sales of four major home appliances in December. The passenger car retail volume is expected to drop by 12.7% year-on-year, a 4.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to November [3]. - The restaurant industry is experiencing a downturn, with the December restaurant PMI at 42.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is below the average performance from 2010 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is expected to continue, with a projected annual decrease of -3.0% for January to December, compared to -2.6% for the first eleven months [3]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% for the entire year, down from 1.9% in the first eleven months [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate - Infrastructure investment is expected to turn negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.4% for the year. Although there are new policies to support investment, the effects may not be fully realized until early 2026 [4]. - Real estate development investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year decline of -16.5% for the year, with December sales showing a year-on-year drop of 27.3% [4]. Group 4: Exports and Industrial Production - Export growth is expected to decline due to base effects, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.0% in December, down from 5.9% in November. Imports are expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year [5]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in December, influenced by seasonal effects and increased operating rates in major industries [5]. Group 5: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable at 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices showing slight improvements and energy prices declining [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline to -2.0% in December, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting the overall index [7]. Group 6: Financial Data - Social financing and monetary growth are expected to decline, with new loans projected to reach 900 billion yuan in December. The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decrease significantly year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to improve, and domestic supply has room for a small increase. Demand is currently weak due to the traditional off - season, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals are in a state where supply is boosted, demand is weak, but the macro - environment provides support and industry expectations are positive. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,664 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 181,068 lots, down 12,931 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 9,545 lots, down 5,230 lots. The LME copper inventory is 107,125 tons, up 4,625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 84,589 tons, up 3,039 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 38,250 tons, up 1,150 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 21,729 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,610 yuan/ton, down 645 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 15 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 22.37 dollars/ton, down 28.94 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.25 dollars/kiloton, up 0.56 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,900 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,600 yuan/metal ton, down 660 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,590 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.89%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.98%, down 0.35%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.66%, up 0.0180%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.63, up 0.1377 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes show that officials have increasing differences in interest - rate prospects. Trump said that Sino - US relations have improved. The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and China's new - energy vehicles have globalization opportunities. In 2024, the number of new - energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million, and the number of innovative drugs under research accounted for about 30% of the global total [2].