Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a strong dollar impacting prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum alloy futures contract (2603) closed at 21,915 CNY, down 430 CNY, a decrease of 1.92%, with a trading volume of 6,836 lots, down 1,370 lots, and an open interest of 4,361 lots, down 169 lots [1]. - On February 5, the average price for aluminum alloy ADC12 was reported at 23,500 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY; A356.2 at 25,700 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; A380 remained stable at 25,000 CNY/ton; ZL102 at 25,100 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; and ZLD104 at 25,000 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, supporting high-cost levels for aluminum alloy, while demand is weakening as downstream enterprises reduce operations ahead of the Spring Festival [2]. - The market is characterized by high aluminum alloy prices, with sellers reluctant to lower prices, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere and low trading activity [2]. - Overall, while tight supply and cost support maintain high aluminum prices, low inventory buildup intentions and fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment are expected to lead to price adjustments in the short term [2].

博弈焦点：三大关键变量决定黄金下一步走向当前，黄金市场正站在一个十字路口，其未来走势将紧密围绕三大核心变量展开激烈博弈。首先，也是迫在眉 睫的，是即将于2月11日发布的美国1月非农就业报告。 这份因政府停摆而推迟的报告，已成为全球市场的焦点。在此之前公布的ADP民间就业数据不及预 期，仅为增加2.2万个岗位，远低于预估，这为劳动力市场蒙上了一层阴影。 市场正在艰难权衡：当前由科技股领跌的股市动荡，究竟是典型的避险情绪（通常利好美元），还是美国经济核心板块恶化的信号？非农数据将成为解答这 一疑惑、并重塑美联储利率路径预期的关键。美联储政策预期的任何变化——无论是降息预期提前还是推迟，都将通过美元和实际利率渠道，直接而猛烈地 冲击金价。其次，地缘政治局势呈现"冰火两重天"的复杂态势。 然而，更具权威性的美国1月非农就业报告因政府停摆而推迟至2月11日发布，这一关键数据的缺席使市场处于观望状态，等待更明确的经济政策路径指引。 其他贵金属表现分化：现货白银上涨1.3%，至每盎司86.08美元，尽管较上周创下的历史高点大幅回撤，但年初至今涨幅仍超过20%，显示其波动性显著高 于黄金。铂金与钯金也均录得小幅上涨。 美元的 ...