Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating between $4080 and $4100, influenced by the resumption of the U.S. government and upcoming economic data releases, while U.S.-China rare earth negotiations show positive progress, stabilizing the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices are maintaining stability around $4087, showing less volatility compared to the previous week [1]. - The end of the government shutdown has not fully restored the statistical system, leading to uncertainty regarding the release of October employment and inflation data [1]. - Market expectations suggest that delayed data may reveal a slowdown in job growth and economic momentum, potentially supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have created upward pressure on gold prices, making it difficult for gold to break through resistance levels [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 54%, down from 62.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. - Upcoming speeches from Fed officials may further influence gold prices, with a hawkish tone likely to maintain pressure on gold [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data and Trade Relations - The current uncertainty in the data system leaves the market with a lack of clarity regarding the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving has led to a reassessment of trade conditions, slightly boosting the dollar index [2]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will heavily depend on the timing of data recovery and the guidance from Federal Reserve communications [3].

Group 1 - The global market focus is shifting from geopolitical risks to monetary policy, particularly the upcoming Federal Reserve Jackson Hole meeting, with investors concerned about potential interest rate cuts in September [1] - Oil prices have slightly retreated, with Brent crude down approximately 0.3%, indicating a gradual easing of market concerns regarding energy supply disruptions [1] - The U.S. and European stock futures are maintaining moderate gains, supported by strong corporate earnings reports, with over half of the S&P 500 companies raising their full-year earnings guidance, resulting in an overall year-on-year earnings growth of 11% [1] Group 2 - Retail sector earnings reports from major companies like Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Lowe's will be closely watched for insights into consumer demand resilience, which will also serve as important indicators for central bank decisions [1] - In the interest rate market, futures contracts indicate an approximately 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, although any signals from Powell that are less dovish than expected could impact the bond market [1] - Short-term yields remain stable under rate cut expectations, while long-term rates are rising due to inflation concerns, expanding fiscal deficits, and uncertainties in monetary policy, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1] Group 3 - In Europe, stock index futures are also showing slight increases, while European bond yields have recently risen due to increased borrowing needs from governments to address fiscal pressures and defense spending [2] - The upcoming speeches from European Central Bank President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey may influence market re-evaluation of European monetary policy paths [2] Group 4 - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: the impact of Federal Reserve policy signals on global liquidity, the support provided by corporate earnings and consumer data to the stock market, and the changes in global bond market yield curves along with underlying inflation and fiscal expectations [7] - A robust investment strategy should involve multi-asset allocation with dynamic adjustments between equities, bonds, and commodities to hedge against potential volatility risks [7] - As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, market risk sentiment may temporarily increase, providing investors with an opportunity for repositioning [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent statements made by the Federal Reserve, highlighting their implications for the financial markets and economic outlook [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve's recent communication lasted 14 minutes, indicating a focused approach to monetary policy [1] - The signals from the Fed suggest a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets are closely monitoring the Fed's signals, with potential impacts on investment strategies and asset valuations [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of interpreting the Fed's messages for understanding future market trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is currently experiencing a downward trend, with a focus on the 3000 support level, while potential for a rebound exists [1][2] - The recent performance of gold shows significant volatility, with a peak at 3167.57 USD/oz followed by a sharp decline of over 75 USD, resulting in a weekly increase of only 1.2% [1] - Silver and platinum also faced declines, with silver experiencing a weekly drop of 7.2%, marking its worst performance since September 2020 [1] Group 2 - The short-term trend for gold has turned bearish, but the long-term bullish structure remains intact as long as the 3000 support level holds [2][4] - The analysis suggests that if the 3000 level is maintained, there is potential for a strong rebound, with key resistance levels identified at 3042, 3058, and 3072 [4] - The market is advised to focus on upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. March CPI data, and the reactions to tariff measures and Federal Reserve communications [1]