如何看 2025 年 4 月消费数据 20250519 摘要 • 2025 年 4 月社零总额增速同比提升 5.2%，但环比下降 0.4%。实物商品 网上零售额同比增长 6%，占社零总额 24.3%。线下业态中，便利店、专 业店、超市和百货店零售额分别增长 9.1%、6.4%、5.2%和 1.7%，超市 和百货增速环比回暖。 • 必选消费品中，粮油食品零售额增长 14%，日用品增长 7.6%。化妆品受 益于低基数和电商发展，同比增长 7.2%。珠宝类商品增长 25.3%，主要 受金价上涨驱动。通讯器材和家电在以旧换新政策刺激下，分别增长 20% 和 39%。 • 餐饮行业 4 月增速回落至 5.2%，限额以上餐饮企业增速降至 3.7%。酒店 行业商旅需求疲软，文旅需求在节假日表现良好，但三四月份 RevPAR 同 比下滑 9%，入住率和价格均下降，供过于求明显。 • 海南免税市场人均客单价提升，但购物转化率下降至 6%，价格上涨 20% 以上，导致 3 月销售额同比下降 5.43%。 • 4 月汽车社零总额同比增长 0.7%，乘用车销量增长 11%，新能源乘用车 销量增长 40.2%，渗透率达 51%。汽车市 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the foreign exchange market this week is the substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations [1] - High-level talks between the US and China took place in Geneva, resulting in an "important consensus" and the establishment of a trade consultation mechanism [1] - President Trump indicated a potential reduction of tariffs on China from a maximum of 145% to 80%, reflecting a compromise stance [1] Group 2 - The market is focused on key economic data from the US, including April CPI, PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the May Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve has recently signaled a hawkish stance, but there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a prudent monetary policy, supporting economic growth through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index (DXY) has recovered above the 100 mark for the first time since early April, with short-term resistance at 102 and support around 100.20 [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.22 and 7.27, reflecting a stable outlook for the Chinese yuan [2] - The USD/JPY pair has seen an increase due to widening interest rate differentials and reduced risk aversion, with a focus on the 145.0-146.0 range for support and resistance [2] Group 4 - The market sentiment has improved due to the US-UK trade agreement and the US-China joint statement, but economic data and central bank policies remain key variables influencing the market [4] - Investors should closely monitor the details of the trade negotiations and US inflation and consumption data to adjust trading strategies accordingly [4] - The stability of the Chinese yuan is supported by both growth policies and eased trade tensions, presenting potential opportunities for medium to long-term investments [3]

Macro - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance to defend its independence and stabilize inflation expectations, with 2-3 potential rate cuts remaining in 2025 depending on economic indicators such as consumer and employment data [4] Coal Industry - In March, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and some coal companies are facing accounting losses, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns [5] - Electricity generation from thermal power has been significantly below expectations since the beginning of the year, but demand for coal may recover as the summer peak approaches [5] Retail - During the Labor Day holiday, sales from key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a decline of 7.3% in sales amount [5] - The overall consumption data has shown resilience, with specific segments such as national subsidies, gold and jewelry retail, and emotional consumption being highlighted as areas of interest [5] Automotive Industry - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a revenue of 73.15 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.82 billion yuan, down 17.60% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.12 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.26 billion yuan, up 117.20% year-on-year [6] Technology and AI - Northstar Holdings is projected to achieve total revenue of 940 million yuan in FY25, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%, with cloud HCM solutions expected to generate 730 million yuan [7] - The company anticipates an adjusted net loss of approximately 60 million yuan for FY25, corresponding to an adjusted net loss rate of -6.4% [7] Healthcare - Steady Medical reported a revenue increase of 9.7% and a net profit increase of 19.8% in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing a revenue growth of 36.5% and a net profit growth of 36.3% [8] - The medical consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 46.3% in Q1 2025, while health and lifestyle consumer products grew by 28.8% [8] Alcohol Industry - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a total revenue of 360.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [9] - In Q4 2024, total revenue decreased by 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 11.32% [9]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 区域的视角系列（5）：如何看待北京消费 数据？ 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治 ...