Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26% since the low in April, but concerns about weak non-farm payroll data and inflation fears due to tariffs may lead to a pause in the bull market during the third quarter [1][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests a potential phase adjustment in the U.S. stock market in Q3, driven by the lagging effects of tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty [1][8] - Despite the potential for a pullback, Morgan Stanley believes the current bull market is not over, viewing any adjustments as opportunities for buying on dips [1][8] Group 2: Earnings and Economic Indicators - The core driver of the bull market is the V-shaped recovery in Earnings Revision Breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently, indicating a confirmation of the market bottom [5] - The "rolling earnings recession" that began in early 2022 is nearing its end, with companies cutting costs and labor to pave the way for profit margin expansion [5] Group 3: Tariff and Labor Market Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting industries with weak pricing power, while industrial companies that can pass on costs will be less affected [8] - Recent labor market data has heightened policy uncertainty, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing the worst revisions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term risks, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, supported by enhanced earnings growth certainty, with consensus expectations for S&P 500 EPS growth of 9% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to eventually shift its policy, with a high probability of entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2026 as inflation pressures ease and the labor market cools [11] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains high, but the 10-year Treasury yield is stable below 4.5%, indicating resilience in equity risk premiums without clear signs of a bubble [11]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]