电动车公社 . 重新思考汽车 本文来自微信公众号： 电动车公社 ，作者：社长，原文标题：《车企组团出逃俄罗斯！304亿直接 打水漂？》 两年前那些"自愿"离开俄罗斯的国际车企，现在可能想回都回不去了。 事情是这样的，两年前因为响应西方制裁措施，现代汽车跟随诸多友商的脚步，"主动"退出了俄罗斯 市场。 以下文章来源于电动车公社 ，作者社长 因为走得实在匆忙，现代汽车只要了7000卢布（约550块人民币）就把位于圣彼得堡的工厂贱卖给了 俄罗斯本地企业，回购权两年。 在很多人看来，这都是笔稳赚不赔的买卖。 既然开工肯定没希望了，工厂维护、复工的成本要以亿计算。还不如做个顺水人情，借俄罗斯企业用 一阵。等停战了再买回来，能省一大笔钱。 这就有点像是把自己家孩子寄养给了隔壁老王，穿衣吃饭都是老王花钱，两年后再把孩子接回来，还 是父慈子孝，岂不妙哉。 可谁承想，如今两年之期已到，俄乌那边的局势还没恢复稳定，什么时候能稳定也是遥遥无期。 回，就要承担荒废工厂的无底洞投入；不回，这可是当年投资5400亿韩元（约26亿元人民币）、耗 时两年才建成的工厂！难道就要这么拱手让人了？ 然而，急得像热锅上的蚂蚁的，可不止现代汽车一家。 ...

来源：张扬超说 黄金很快将会突破历史前高，而一旦突破4380前高，那么短期下一站将会是4500，内盘黄金1000，然后是1010，当 然，这个价格也并非终点。 做趋势的朋友，你只需要在正确的方向里跟随并耐心持有即可！ 有人说四季度 的黄金不会有大单边行情，理由是今年黄金已经涨的太多了，现在价格太高了！但是我想说的是，回顾历年来的黄金 走势，每一次的历史性新高，都在不断刷新人的认知！ 近期黄金etf持续大手笔增持黄金，地缘危机跌宕起伏， 美联储年内连续三次降息之后，并且很快将会在未来几个月换任新的美联储主席，2026年的美联储政策或许比今年更 加鸽派！ 总之一句话，黄金的上涨周期还将会持续很长时间！ 大家应该记得我们最近一次上车的位置是在 902或者910附近，再之后就是我们反复强调的950以及945上车的，也就是4100，以及4200下方。所以，在正确的趋势 里做时间的朋友，你可以实现躺赢！ 而对于本周的黄金走势来讲，短期下方4280至4265是一个非常关键的防守 区域，也就是965附近，极限在960这样！短期如果有机会给到，仍然可以去考虑上车，但是这里上车的话就只能是短 线进行。 而之前在950下方以及91 ...

美国总统特朗普12日再次向委内瑞拉政府发出威胁，宣称将"很快"启动针对该国贩毒集团的地面行动， 并强调陆路行动相对容易执行。地缘危机持续支撑黄金。 另外投资者正密切关注本周即将公布的关键经济数据，特别是美国非农就业报告，将于12月16日发布。 分析师指出，黄金当前处于强势通道，基本面和技术面均支持进一步上涨，目标指向4350-4400美元区 间。同时关注美元走势和美债收益率，如果美元继续疲软，金价上行空间将进一步打开。地缘上关注美 乌和平计划进展，可能引发避险情绪升温。 周一(12月15日)亚洲时段，现货黄金延续强势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4325.79美元/盎司，上涨 0.55%，最高触及4329.61美元/盎司，最低下探4297.39美元/盎司。美联储年内第三次降息强化了明年继 续宽松的预期，同时全球不确定性推升避险需求支撑金价走高，目前接近前期高点附近，短期或将面临 宽幅震荡，若美元指数继续走低，则不排除金价向上加速的可能性。 美联储上周的降息决定并非一致通过，多位官员表达了反对意见。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德直言通 胀"过热"，反对本次降息，认为货币政策应保持适度紧缩。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也反对近期降息 ...

黄金很快将会涨到4500，很快！而且今天4200关口以及950下方，仍可继续上车。 理由很简单，黄 金etf昨天再次大幅度增持4.58吨，这是至11.21号之后的四连增，那么对应的盘面是在4050区域开始的 建仓！ 我认为etf大幅增持的原因有两个，一是盘面上，此前黄金冲高4380后开启回落的低点3900 已经成为黄金中期多空转折的关键点，这个早前在直播的时候给大家讲过，而随后自3900开启的拉升至 4250后的二次回落的低点是在4000美元关口区域。那相比之前的3900而言低点在抬高。随后展开了一周 的横盘宽幅震荡，之后在一小时级别上走出了底部结构，然后一直上涨到现在，所以不难看出，etf的 持续增持黄金也正顺应了市场的客观规律，依据形态结构进行加减仓，这个与我的交易体系不谋而合！ 二是美联储即将展开的降息。这也是我为什么看涨4500美元的理由。 主要是看好12月8号美联 来源：张扬超说 储将会展开新一轮的降息。这点很关键！届时这将会推动黄金进一步走强。而随着美联储降息频率的增 加，以及2026年美联储主席的换届，再结合特朗普的一贯风格，届时的美联储将会更倾向于鸽派，这也 是在上一次美联储降息之后，我说，美 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: [HuaBao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. The market believes that weak employment data will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates further, and the US government is releasing delayed economic data. In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Downstream开工率 declined, and the aluminum water ratio decreased. In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The PMI of the aluminum processing industry in November showed significant differentiation. As of December 1, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in the mainstream consumption areas in China remained flat compared with last Thursday and decreased by 17,000 tons compared with last Monday [13]. - View: There is obvious support from the macro - aspect, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten fundamentally. However, with the arrival of the short - term off - season, the downstream demand weakens and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. It is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained high. The processing fees of zinc concentrates decreased compared with early November. The galvanizing开工率 decreased slightly last week. The zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the export window of zinc ingots was still open recently [14]. - View: In the short term, the price maintains a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events and the LME inventory trend [14]. Tin - Logic: Last week, the price of Shanghai tin rose significantly. Due to the slow ore output in Myanmar and the tense situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the price of Shanghai tin exceeded 300,000. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates decreased year - on - year. Yunnan and Jiangxi are still in a state of raw material shortage with low开工率. The downstream semiconductor consumption is acceptable, but the traditional automotive and home appliance sectors have cooled down [15]. - View: Due to the sudden situation at the mine end, the price of tin is strongly sorted [15]. Group 4: Weekly Market Review Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Contract | Closing Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Closing Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | Spot Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Spot Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | CU2601 | 89,280 | 86,080 | 3,200 | 3.72% | 89,150 | 86,215 | 2,935 | 3.40% | | Aluminum | AL2601 | 21,865 | 21,380 | 485 | 2.27% | 21,730 | 21,330 | 400 | 1.88% | | Zinc | ZN2601 | 22,590 | 22,390 | 200 | 0.89% | 22,206 | 22,212 | - 6 | - 0.03% | | Tin | SN2601 | 306,580 | 292,860 | 13,720 | 4.68% | 311,500 | 293,750 | 17,750 | 6.04% | | Nickel | NI2601 | 117,850 | 115,530 | 2,320 | 2.01% | 120,340 | 118,290 | 2,050 | 1.73% | [9] Group 5: Variety Data - Aluminum Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, up 5 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, up 20 year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.2 US dollars/ton on November 28, down 0.26 week - on - week and 20.24 year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports on November 28 was 5.1392 million tons, up 3.0815 million tons week - on - week and 1.4105 million tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 4.5221 million tons, down 262,300 tons week - on - week and 134,000 tons year - on - year [23]. Alumina - Price and Cost - Profit: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, down 2,855 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,899.3 yuan/ton, down 5.5 week - on - week and 342.6 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 100.23 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 2,881.99 year - on - year [26]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost on November 28 was 16,078.1 yuan/ton, down 2.64 week - on - week and 5,109.33 year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton on November 28, up 30 week - on - week and down 30 year - on - year [30]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables on November 27 was 63, up 0.6 week - on - week and down 8.8 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 66.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 5.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.5, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 1.7 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 5.2 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5, up 0.9 week - on - week and up 5.6 year - on - year [32][33]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on November 27 was 39,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and down 1,400 year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 60,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and up 10,400 year - on - year; the social inventory on December 1 was 596,000 tons, down 17,000 week - on - week and up 43,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on November 24 was 139,400 tons, up 25,300 week - on - week and up 17,300 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 115,277 tons, down 8,439 week - on - week and down 109,099 year - on - year; the LME inventory on November 27 was 539,050 tons, down 8,950 week - on - week and down 159,425 year - on - year [37][38]. - Spot and Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 150 yuan/ton, down 230 week - on - week and down 100 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week and down 130 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 210 yuan/ton, down 205 week - on - week and down 115 year - on - year [44]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 30 week - on - week and down 50 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 25 week - on - week and down 20 year - on - year [45]. Group 6: Variety Data - Zinc Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fees: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on November 28 was 18,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,518 year - on - year; the domestic processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, down 250 week - on - week and up 850 year - on - year; the import processing fee was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton, down 11.8 week - on - week [54]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - Loss and Inventory: The enterprise production profit on November 28 was 5,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,538 year - on - year; the import profit - loss was - 2,710.15 yuan/ton, down 859.58 week - on - week and down 2,543.97 year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on November 28 was 150,000 physical tons, unchanged week - on - week and up 9 year - on - year [58]. Refined Zinc - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on December 1 was 144,300 tons, down 6,700 week - on - week and up 44,400 year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on November 27 was 3,600 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 5,900 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on November 28 was 95,916 tons, down 4,431 week - on - week and up 42,933 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory on November 27 was 51,750 tons, up 4,425 week - on - week and down 216,875 year - on - year [62]. Galvanizing - Production, Operating Rate and Inventory: The production on November 27 was 336,690 tons, up 5,300 week - on - week and down 61,375 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.54, down 0.63 week - on - week and down 9.97 year - on - year; the raw - material inventory was 14,520 tons, down 330 week - on - week and up 2,480 year - on - year; the finished - product inventory was 366,200 tons, down 600 week - on - week and up 12,820 year - on - year [66]. Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread - Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 60 week - on - week and down 990 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 100 week - on - week and down 1,450 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 105 yuan/ton, down 140 week - on - week and down 1,865 year - on - year [70]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week and down 460 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan/ton, down 80 week - on - week and down 875 year - on - year [71]. Group 7: Variety Data - Tin Refined Tin - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on November 28 was 0.336 million tons, up 0.002 week - on - week and up 0.0175 year - on - year; the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 69.34%, up 0.41 week - on - week and up 3.61 year - on - year [80]. Tin Ingot - Inventory: The total SHFE tin - ingot inventory on November 28 was 6,359 tons, up 130 week - on - week and down 880 year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China on November 28 was 7,825 tons, up 171 week - on - week and down 352 year - on - year [84]. Tin Concentrate - Processing Fees: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year; the processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year [85]. - Import Profit - Loss: The import profit - loss level of tin ore on November 28 was 9,605.95 yuan/ton, down 4,095.68 week - on - week and down 2,350.24 year - on - year [88]. - Spot Price: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 288,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year; the prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 292,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: Macro sentiment provides strong support, with a persistent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets and high prices. However, downstream demand weakens during the off - season, increasing the pressure of inventory accumulation. Later, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro policies, supply expansion, and consumption release [14]. - Zinc: In the short term, prices follow the overall non - ferrous metals trend and remain at a high level. But in the long - term, supply expansion exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, and be vigilant about macro - risk events and LME inventory trends [16]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and tin prices are consolidating strongly. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Color Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 85,940 yuan, down 1070 yuan (- 1.23%) from October 31. The spot price was 85,995 yuan, down 1570 yuan (- 1.79%) [9]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 21,625 yuan, up 325 yuan (1.53%) from October 31. The spot price was 21,580 yuan, up 280 yuan (1.31%) [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 22,720 yuan, up 365 yuan (1.63%) from October 31. The spot price was 22,768 yuan, up 248 yuan (1.10%) [9]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 283,510 yuan, down 400 yuan (- 0.14%) from October 31. The spot price was 283,750 yuan, down 500 yuan (- 0.18%) [9]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 119,440 yuan, down 1150 yuan (- 0.95%) from October 31. The spot price was 121,290 yuan, down 980 yuan (- 0.80%) [9]. 02. This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US Treasury bond yield declined slightly with the government shutdown, and the non - farm payroll report was not released. Fundamentally, in October, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Although some mines can resume production, they need government approval. Some mines increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained at a high level. The average weekly TC of domestic SMM Zn50 decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing starting rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the inventory increased slightly [16]. Tin - Logic: In October, domestic tin ingot production increased to 16,090 tons. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow, and Indonesia's export speed slowed down. Domestic production and starting rates increased, but processing fees remained low. Semiconductor consumption was good, while traditional sectors cooled down [17]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 660 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 590 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.8 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars week - on - week [22]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports was 3.1232 million tons, down 649,600 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 3.991 million tons, down 742,400 tons week - on - week [23]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the full cost was 2905 yuan/ton, down 15.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit in Shanxi was - 94.41 yuan/ton, up 25.73 yuan week - on - week [28]. - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: 16,113.5 yuan/ton, up 70.44 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Regional spread: The spread between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Downstream processing: The starting rates of aluminum cables, foils, strips, profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys showed different degrees of change, with some decreasing and some increasing or remaining unchanged [36][37]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 46,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the total bonded - area inventory was 65,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 627,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 112,300 tons, down 18,400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE inventory was 113,335 tons, down 239 tons week - on - week; the LME inventory was 549,225 tons, down 8825 tons week - on - week [42][43]. - Spot: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan week - on - week [48]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week [49]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 18,206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the domestic processing fee was 2850 yuan/metal ton, down 400 yuan week - on - week; the imported processing fee was 98.37 dollars/dry ton, down 4.17 dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 5206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the import profit and loss was - 2305.84 yuan/ton, down 47.67 yuan week - on - week; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week [61]. - Refined zinc inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, down 2100 tons week - on - week; the bonded - area inventory was 3800 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, down 3208 tons week - on - week; the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week [64]. - Galvanizing: The production was 318,270 tons, down 24,350 tons week - on - week; the starting rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points week - on - week; the raw material inventory was 13,080 tons, up 420 tons week - on - week; the finished - product inventory was 359,000 tons, down 8000 tons week - on - week [68]. - Zinc basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month was - 20 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 120 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan week - on - week [72]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan week - on - week [73]. Tin - Refined tin: - Production and starting rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 3350 tons, up 20 tons week - on - week; the combined starting rate was 69.13%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [83]. - Tin ingot inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 5992 tons, up 73 tons week - on - week; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 7033 tons, up 349 tons week - on - week [86]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged week - on - week [89]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level was 11,635.53 yuan/ton, down 2907.46 yuan week - on - week [90]. - Spot average price: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: With obvious support from macro - sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term. Attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [10][11] - Zinc: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - Copper (CU2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95% compared to October 17. The spot price was 86,370, a weekly increase of 1,535 or 1.81% [8] - Aluminum (AL2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 21,225, a weekly increase of 315 or 1.51% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,130, a weekly increase of 170 or 0.81% [8] - Zinc (ZN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 22,355, a weekly increase of 540 or 2.48% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,818, a weekly decrease of 38 or - 0.17% [8] - Tin (SN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 284,300, a weekly increase of 3,550 or 1.26% compared to October 17. The spot price was 282,750, a weekly increase of 1,500 or 0.53% [8] - Nickel (NI2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 122,150, a weekly increase of 990 or 0.82% compared to October 17. The spot price was 123,240, a weekly increase of 460 or 0.37% [8] 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the increase in US consumer prices in September was lower than expected, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, and the price has increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is stable in the peak season with internal differentiation. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [10] - Viewpoint: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [11] - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price was strong. The import of zinc ore is still significantly loss - making, and domestic zinc ore is in short supply. The operating rate of galvanizing decreased last week. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased due to downstream enterprises' cautious purchasing. The overall domestic inventory increased, with different trends in different regions [13] - Viewpoint: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [13] Tin - Logic: In September 2025, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Indonesia's closure of illegal tin mines and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar have led to a tight supply situation. The domestic production and operating rate have rebounded, but the processing fee of smelters remains low. Downstream consumption in emerging fields is okay, but traditional sectors are cooling down [15] - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] - Later attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [15] 3.3 03品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The port arrival and departure volumes increased week - on - week and year - on - year [19][22] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the full cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [25] - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the regional price difference increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The operating rates of different downstream processing sectors showed different trends. The inventory in different regions and types also had different changes. The basis and monthly spread also changed [29][32][38] Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the imported processing fee decreased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the import profit and loss decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52][55] - Refined zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the LME inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [58] - Galvanizing: The output increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the operating rate decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the finished - product inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [61] - Zinc basis and monthly spread: The basis and monthly spread of zinc changed week - on - week and year - on - year [64][68] Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the combined operating rate increased week - on - week and year - on - year [73] - Tin ingot: The total inventory of SHFE tin ingots increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [76] - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [77] - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [79] - Spot price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year [83]

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the guidance of peak-season inventory consumption on price direction [9][10] - Zinc prices are expected to have a slight weak adjustment in the short term, with support in the peak season but medium- to long-term supply increase putting pressure on the upside [12][13] - Tin prices are expected to have a strong adjustment in the short term under the situation of weak supply and demand [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Non-ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Copper**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 79,910 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1,150 yuan or -1.42%; the spot price was 79,970 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1,020 yuan or -1.26% [7] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 20,795 yuan, a weekly decrease of 325 yuan or -1.54%; the spot price was 20,840 yuan, a weekly decrease of 210 yuan or -1.00% [7] - **Zinc**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 22,045 yuan, a weekly decrease of 260 yuan or -1.17%; the spot price was 22,082 yuan, a weekly decrease of 154 yuan or -0.69% [7] - **Tin**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 268,770 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5,180 yuan or -1.89%; the spot price was 269,250 yuan, a weekly decrease of 4,000 yuan or -1.46% [7] - **Nickel**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 121,500 yuan, a weekly decrease of 480 yuan or -0.39%; the spot price was 123,020 yuan, a weekly decrease of 410 yuan or -0.33% [7] 3.2. This Week's Non-ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices adjusted at a high level. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, many Fed officials released hawkish signals, leading to a slight price correction. Fundamentally, the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a high level, the import window is open, and domestic inventories are high. On the demand side, the开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% last week, down 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - **Viewpoint**: After the previous macro factors were settled, the price adjusted slightly after rising. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the guidance of peak-season inventory consumption on price direction [10] Zinc - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices adjusted weakly. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by $12.5/dry ton to $111.25/dry ton. The Shanghai-London ratio fell to around 7.5, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. On the demand side, the galvanizing开工率 reached 58.05%, up 1.99 percentage points from the previous week. Zinc ingot inventories increased slightly. The die-casting zinc alloy开工率 was 53.78%, down 0.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of September 22, the total inventory of SMM seven places was 15.70 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with September 15 [12] - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the macro benefits have basically been released, and the price has a slight weak adjustment. There is still support in the peak season, but the medium- to long-term supply increase puts pressure on the upside [13] Tin - **Logic**: The Fed's 25-basis-point interest rate cut did not exceed market expectations, and there was some pressure on tin prices in the short term. In July, China's tin ore imports were 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month-on-month decrease of 13.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.79%. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 72,400 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 32.32%. After Myanmar completed the mining license approval, the progress was slow, and ore production will continue until at least the fourth quarter. The tight supply situation promoted tin prices. Currently, the raw materials in Yunnan are in short supply, and the inventory is less than 30 days; the scrap tin in Jiangxi is also tight, resulting in a significant decline in the开工率 of smelters in the two provinces. Downstream demand is average, and although the data of consumer electronics and new energy vehicles are good, there are signs of a market slowdown. The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [16] - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are strongly adjusted [16] 3.3. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The price of domestic high-grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton; the price of domestic low-grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 580 yuan/ton; the average price of imported bauxite index was $75.1/ton, a decrease of $0.38 compared with the previous week. The port arrival volume was 3.4174 million tons, a decrease of 837,100 tons compared with the previous week; the port departure volume was 4.6711 million tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared with the previous week [20][23] - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared with the previous week; the full cost was 2,890.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.8 yuan compared with the previous week; the profit in Shanxi was -8.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.82 yuan compared with the previous week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost was 16,335.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.95 yuan compared with the previous week; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the previous week. The开工率 of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 65.2; the开工率 of aluminum foil remained unchanged at 71.9; the开工率 of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 0.4 to 68.2; the开工率 of aluminum profiles increased by 0.6 to 54.6; the开工率 of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.2 to 57.2; the开工率 of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 to 55.9. The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons compared with the previous week; the total bonded area inventory was 90,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons compared with the previous week; the social inventory was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons compared with the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 127,734 tons, a decrease of 765 tons compared with the previous week; the LME inventory was 513,900 tons, an increase of 28,625 tons compared with the previous week [28][33][39][40] - **Spot and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum basis for the current month was 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the third consecutive contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan compared with the previous week. The price difference between the current month and the main contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared with the previous week; the price difference between the current month and the third consecutive contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan compared with the previous week [45][46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,654 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 224 yuan compared with the previous week; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $111.25/dry ton, an increase of $12.5 compared with the previous week. The enterprise production profit was 3,686 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 192 yuan compared with the previous week; the import profit and loss was -2,001.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 147.85 yuan compared with the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 150,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous week [53][56] - **Refined Zinc**: The SMM seven-place zinc ingot social inventory was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the previous week; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged compared with the previous week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 99,315 tons, an increase of 4,666 tons compared with the previous week; the LME zinc inventory was 46,825 tons, a decrease of 3,325 tons compared with the previous week [59] - **Galvanizing**: The output was 337,400 tons, an increase of 5,055 tons compared with the previous week; the开工率 was 58.05, an increase of 1.99 percentage points compared with the previous week; the raw material inventory was 13,910 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with the previous week; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons compared with the previous week [62] - **Zinc Basis and Price Difference**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot basis for the current month was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the main contract was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the third consecutive contract was -90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan compared with the previous week. The price difference between the current month and the main contract was -10 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan compared with the previous week; the price difference between the current month and the third consecutive contract was -40 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan compared with the previous week [65][68] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 1,450 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with the previous week; the combined开工率 was 29.92%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points compared with the previous week [73] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 6,988 tons, a decrease of 909 tons compared with the previous week; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 8,453 tons, a decrease of 936 tons compared with the previous week [76] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The tin concentrate processing fee in Yunnan (40%) remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton; the tin concentrate processing fee in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged at 8,000 yuan/ton [78] - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The tin ore import profit and loss level was 14,948.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,105.3 yuan compared with the previous week [79] - **Spot Price**: The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 257,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,600 yuan compared with the previous week; the average price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi was 261,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,600 yuan compared with the previous week [83]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that spot silver has surged past $42 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, driven by multiple factors including monetary policy changes, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand [1][3][4] - Spot silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 35% this year, outpacing gold's performance, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [1][3] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which lower the holding costs for silver, leading to increased investment [3][5] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and trade threats, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, resulting in record inflows into silver ETFs [3][4] - The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market is experiencing explosive growth, with an expected installation capacity of 655 GW by 2025, significantly increasing the industrial demand for silver [4] - The historical gold-silver ratio, which has been correcting from a peak of 106 to 86, suggests further upside potential for silver prices as the ratio normalizes [5] Group 3 - Future projections indicate that silver may outperform gold due to its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset, with potential prices reaching $50 if the gold-silver ratio returns to 60 [7] - Key bullish factors include robust solar demand, confirmed Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical crises, although caution is advised regarding potential market corrections [7]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]