Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the guidance of peak-season inventory consumption on price direction [9][10] - Zinc prices are expected to have a slight weak adjustment in the short term, with support in the peak season but medium- to long-term supply increase putting pressure on the upside [12][13] - Tin prices are expected to have a strong adjustment in the short term under the situation of weak supply and demand [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Non-ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Copper**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 79,910 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1,150 yuan or -1.42%; the spot price was 79,970 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1,020 yuan or -1.26% [7] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 20,795 yuan, a weekly decrease of 325 yuan or -1.54%; the spot price was 20,840 yuan, a weekly decrease of 210 yuan or -1.00% [7] - **Zinc**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 22,045 yuan, a weekly decrease of 260 yuan or -1.17%; the spot price was 22,082 yuan, a weekly decrease of 154 yuan or -0.69% [7] - **Tin**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 268,770 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5,180 yuan or -1.89%; the spot price was 269,250 yuan, a weekly decrease of 4,000 yuan or -1.46% [7] - **Nickel**: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 19 was 121,500 yuan, a weekly decrease of 480 yuan or -0.39%; the spot price was 123,020 yuan, a weekly decrease of 410 yuan or -0.33% [7] 3.2. This Week's Non-ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices adjusted at a high level. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, many Fed officials released hawkish signals, leading to a slight price correction. Fundamentally, the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a high level, the import window is open, and domestic inventories are high. On the demand side, the开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% last week, down 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - **Viewpoint**: After the previous macro factors were settled, the price adjusted slightly after rising. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the guidance of peak-season inventory consumption on price direction [10] Zinc - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices adjusted weakly. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by $12.5/dry ton to $111.25/dry ton. The Shanghai-London ratio fell to around 7.5, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. On the demand side, the galvanizing开工率 reached 58.05%, up 1.99 percentage points from the previous week. Zinc ingot inventories increased slightly. The die-casting zinc alloy开工率 was 53.78%, down 0.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of September 22, the total inventory of SMM seven places was 15.70 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with September 15 [12] - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the macro benefits have basically been released, and the price has a slight weak adjustment. There is still support in the peak season, but the medium- to long-term supply increase puts pressure on the upside [13] Tin - **Logic**: The Fed's 25-basis-point interest rate cut did not exceed market expectations, and there was some pressure on tin prices in the short term. In July, China's tin ore imports were 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month-on-month decrease of 13.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.79%. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 72,400 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 32.32%. After Myanmar completed the mining license approval, the progress was slow, and ore production will continue until at least the fourth quarter. The tight supply situation promoted tin prices. Currently, the raw materials in Yunnan are in short supply, and the inventory is less than 30 days; the scrap tin in Jiangxi is also tight, resulting in a significant decline in the开工率 of smelters in the two provinces. Downstream demand is average, and although the data of consumer electronics and new energy vehicles are good, there are signs of a market slowdown. The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [16] - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are strongly adjusted [16] 3.3. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The price of domestic high-grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton; the price of domestic low-grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 580 yuan/ton; the average price of imported bauxite index was $75.1/ton, a decrease of $0.38 compared with the previous week. The port arrival volume was 3.4174 million tons, a decrease of 837,100 tons compared with the previous week; the port departure volume was 4.6711 million tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared with the previous week [20][23] - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared with the previous week; the full cost was 2,890.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.8 yuan compared with the previous week; the profit in Shanxi was -8.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.82 yuan compared with the previous week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost was 16,335.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.95 yuan compared with the previous week; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the previous week. The开工率 of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 65.2; the开工率 of aluminum foil remained unchanged at 71.9; the开工率 of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 0.4 to 68.2; the开工率 of aluminum profiles increased by 0.6 to 54.6; the开工率 of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.2 to 57.2; the开工率 of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 to 55.9. The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons compared with the previous week; the total bonded area inventory was 90,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons compared with the previous week; the social inventory was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons compared with the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 127,734 tons, a decrease of 765 tons compared with the previous week; the LME inventory was 513,900 tons, an increase of 28,625 tons compared with the previous week [28][33][39][40] - **Spot and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum basis for the current month was 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the third consecutive contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan compared with the previous week. The price difference between the current month and the main contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared with the previous week; the price difference between the current month and the third consecutive contract was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan compared with the previous week [45][46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,654 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 224 yuan compared with the previous week; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $111.25/dry ton, an increase of $12.5 compared with the previous week. The enterprise production profit was 3,686 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 192 yuan compared with the previous week; the import profit and loss was -2,001.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 147.85 yuan compared with the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 150,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous week [53][56] - **Refined Zinc**: The SMM seven-place zinc ingot social inventory was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the previous week; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged compared with the previous week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 99,315 tons, an increase of 4,666 tons compared with the previous week; the LME zinc inventory was 46,825 tons, a decrease of 3,325 tons compared with the previous week [59] - **Galvanizing**: The output was 337,400 tons, an increase of 5,055 tons compared with the previous week; the开工率 was 58.05, an increase of 1.99 percentage points compared with the previous week; the raw material inventory was 13,910 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with the previous week; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons compared with the previous week [62] - **Zinc Basis and Price Difference**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot basis for the current month was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the main contract was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan compared with the previous week; the basis for the third consecutive contract was -90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan compared with the previous week. The price difference between the current month and the main contract was -10 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan compared with the previous week; the price difference between the current month and the third consecutive contract was -40 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan compared with the previous week [65][68] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 1,450 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with the previous week; the combined开工率 was 29.92%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points compared with the previous week [73] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 6,988 tons, a decrease of 909 tons compared with the previous week; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 8,453 tons, a decrease of 936 tons compared with the previous week [76] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The tin concentrate processing fee in Yunnan (40%) remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton; the tin concentrate processing fee in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged at 8,000 yuan/ton [78] - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The tin ore import profit and loss level was 14,948.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,105.3 yuan compared with the previous week [79] - **Spot Price**: The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 257,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,600 yuan compared with the previous week; the average price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi was 261,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,600 yuan compared with the previous week [83]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that spot silver has surged past $42 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, driven by multiple factors including monetary policy changes, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand [1][3][4] - Spot silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 35% this year, outpacing gold's performance, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [1][3] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which lower the holding costs for silver, leading to increased investment [3][5] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and trade threats, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, resulting in record inflows into silver ETFs [3][4] - The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market is experiencing explosive growth, with an expected installation capacity of 655 GW by 2025, significantly increasing the industrial demand for silver [4] - The historical gold-silver ratio, which has been correcting from a peak of 106 to 86, suggests further upside potential for silver prices as the ratio normalizes [5] Group 3 - Future projections indicate that silver may outperform gold due to its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset, with potential prices reaching $50 if the gold-silver ratio returns to 60 [7] - Key bullish factors include robust solar demand, confirmed Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical crises, although caution is advised regarding potential market corrections [7]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses strategies for investing in gold amidst market volatility, emphasizing the importance of understanding investment goals and risk management [1] Group 1: Investment Goals and Strategies - Investors should clearly define their investment objectives before entering the gold market. For long-term asset preservation against inflation, a buy-and-hold strategy is recommended, as historical data shows gold's steady appreciation over time. For short-term gains, traders can utilize market volatility, with daily price fluctuations reaching several tens of dollars [3] - Different investment methods in gold have their pros and cons. Physical gold investment, such as buying bars or coins, offers a sense of security and is suitable for those preferring tangible assets for wealth transfer or asset allocation. However, it comes with storage risks and costs. Gold futures provide leverage to amplify returns but also increase risk, making them suitable for experienced traders with high-risk tolerance. Gold ETFs offer a convenient and low-cost way for ordinary investors to gain exposure to gold without the hassle of physical storage [4] Group 2: Monitoring International Dynamics - International geopolitical tensions significantly impact the gold market. Crises often trigger panic among investors, leading to a surge of funds into gold as a safe-haven asset, which can cause sharp price increases. For instance, tensions in the Middle East typically result in volatile gold prices. Investors should closely monitor global geopolitical developments to anticipate potential risks and adjust their gold allocation accordingly [6] Group 3: Managing Market Volatility Risks - The gold market is characterized by frequent and severe price fluctuations, resembling a roller coaster. Investors must avoid impulsive trading behaviors and adhere to rational investment principles. To manage uncertainty, setting stop-loss and take-profit points is advisable. A stop-loss point serves as a safety net, prompting investors to sell if prices fall to a predetermined level, while a take-profit point allows for locking in gains when prices reach a certain threshold. Careful consideration and precise strategies are essential for navigating the unpredictable gold market [7]