Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "oscillating and bullish" [1][5] Core View of the Report - The report believes that due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the signal of peace talks released by the US, the crude oil market is in a bullish atmosphere. The domestic crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and bullish trend on Wednesday night, and are expected to maintain this pattern on Thursday [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference views of crude oil 2605 are all "oscillating and bullish" [1] Driving Logic - The US is deploying troops to the Middle East and Trump is sending a signal of peace talks with Iran, trying to ease the financial market tension and boost risk appetite. However, Iran has refuted the peace - talk signal, and the geopolitical crisis still exists [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For sugar, due to the current situation where raw sugar prices are continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and with the increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. - For live pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons. The monthly sugar sales volume was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons. The industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. According to the prediction of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) at the end of February, due to the lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy View**: There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to February 2026, China imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From February 26 to March 5, the current - year cotton export sales in the United States were 35,800 tons, with a cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export to China of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. In the March prediction, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points compared to the February prediction and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted production in the United States in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as the previous level. The predicted production in Brazil increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; the predicted production in India remained at 5.12 million tons; the predicted production in China increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [4]. - **Strategy View**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global's latest forecast shows that the corn planting area in the United States in 2026 will reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The predicted soybean planting area in the United States in 2026 is raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the cumulative export of soybeans in the current year was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export of soybeans to China in the current year was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. In the March prediction, the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points compared to February and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted soybean production in the United States was 11.599 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Brazil was 18 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Argentina was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared to the February prediction. In addition, in the March prediction, the predicted export volume of the United States remained at 4.286 million tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives production enterprises in Indonesia are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. According to data released by the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 to 15, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia stated that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. According to data from the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, the total export volume of palm oil in Indonesia in January 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in February was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 921,000 tons, a 56.9% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by ITS, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 926,000 tons, a 43.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by the Indian Refiners Association (SEA), as of the end of February, the inventory of vegetable oils in India was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. According to MYSTEEL data, in the week of March 13, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the egg prices across the country were stable with some increases. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were quite confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's egg prices across the country may be mostly stable with a few increases [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline generally. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 10.02 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 9.91 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi decreased by 0.15 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram. The breeding side had a strong willingness to sell, and the price - holding mentality of the breeding side in most areas weakened. It is expected that today's pig prices may continue to decline [15]. - **Strategy View**: Considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [5]. - For cotton, the March USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been good, and the prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are good. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is trending downward, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of reduction has slowed down due to expectations. The supply side has a post - poned expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contract on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost in the long - term [18]. - For pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contract maintains a premium structure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds; the long - term contract has the expectation of production capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - StoneX significantly reduced its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 870,000 tons, mainly due to the downward adjustment of the sugar production forecast in India. In January, it had predicted a surplus of 2.9 million tons, and the Indian sugar production forecast was lowered from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 15,900 lots, equivalent to 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, delivering over 14,000 lots, and Sukeedon was the only buyer, delivering 15,900 lots [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted in its third production forecast that the net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in India in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, 1.65 million tons lower than the second forecast and 3.17 million tons higher than the previous year [4]. - As of the week of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, up from 41 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons, up from 1.4617 million tons in the previous week [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, Thailand's sugar production reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 609,000 tons of sugar cane, with a sugar production of 5,000 tons and a sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio of 6.63% [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season was expected to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast [4]. Strategy - Currently, raw sugar prices are continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. With the increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [5]. Cotton Market Information - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [7]. - From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 35,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [7]. - The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [7]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Strategy - The March USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been good, and the prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are good. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - In February, China imported 5.976 million tons of soybeans, and the cumulative import volume from January to February was 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton decrease from the previous forecast [11]. - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton decrease from the previous forecast [11]. - From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 380,000 tons of soybeans in the current year, with a cumulative export of 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 6, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 0.99 - million - ton decrease from the February prediction and a 0.028 - million - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. Strategy - The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats Market Information - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government was studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [14]. - According to data released by the MPOB, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [14]. - AmSpec reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons, an 182,000 - ton increase from the same period last month [14]. - ITS reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 622,000 tons, a 171,000 - ton increase from the same period last month [14]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a 430,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [14]. - As of the week of March 6, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a 77,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [14]. Strategy - Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [15]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally trended stronger, with some remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan per catty, the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 2.98 yuan per catty, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.13 yuan to 3.4 yuan per catty. The inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is sufficient. The supply of small - sized eggs is slightly tight, and the overall inventory is not high. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the willingness to chase high prices is low. However, as the Tomb - Sweeping Festival approaches, the demand side may improve slightly, and it is expected that egg prices may still have a slight upward space this week [17]. Strategy - Although the production capacity is trending downward, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of reduction has slowed down due to expectations. The supply side has a post - poned expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contract on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost in the long - term [18]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, with increases, decreases, and stability. The average price in Henan increased by 0.02 yuan to 10.19 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi decreased by 0.01 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram. After continuous price cuts, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts, which may drive a slight rebound in the northern and southern markets over the weekend and at the beginning of the week. However, the overall abundant supply limits the price increase space, the improvement space of the terminal market in the future is limited, and the entry of secondary fattening is generally cautious, so pig prices may still be under pressure [20]. Strategy - Considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contract maintains a premium structure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds; the long - term contract has the expectation of production capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term crude oil price fluctuates sharply, driving the protein meal price to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The latest estimates of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by AgRural and StoneX were 178 million tons and 177.8 million tons respectively, both lower than the previous forecasts. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons in the current - year cumulative exports. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals in 2026 were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators are as follows: the multi - empty score of the US soybean 5 - 7 spread is 0; the soybean import crushing profit is +1; the rapeseed import cost is - 1; the soybean and rapeseed meal spread is 0; the international soybean supply is +0.5; the domestic supply is - 0.5; the domestic demand is +1; and other factors (geopolitical crisis) are +1. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are shown [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - **Weather Conditions**: The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina are compared with the same - period averages. The precipitation and temperature anomalies in major soybean - producing areas are also provided [42][44][45]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: It shows the current - market - year and next - market - year cumulative signing volumes, the current - market - year and next - market - year exports to China, and the US soybean export progress from 2021 to 2026. The monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China are also presented [53][54][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation**: The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: The monthly export volumes and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The weekly and cumulative shipments of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are also provided [65][66][68]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are shown [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [86]. - **Breeding Profit**: The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are shown [88][89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both in a state of oscillation, and the intraday trend is on the strong side, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation due to continuous policy support for the economic fundamentals [1]. - For varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the strong side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is range - bound oscillation. In the short term, geopolitical risks and continuous policy support are intertwined, and the stock index will mainly undergo range - bound consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is on the strong side, with a view of range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that continuous policy support stabilizes the economic fundamentals [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the strong side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated with a slight decline. Externally, the US - Iran situation has high uncertainty, increasing the risk of stagflation in the global economy. Internally, the Two Sessions' policies support the macro - economic fundamentals. In the short term, geopolitical risks and policy support are intertwined, and subsequent focus should be on the evolution of the US - Iran situation, policy implementation effects, and listed company earnings reports [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. With the raw sugar price at a historical low and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil after April, and domestic production pressure easing, there is a possibility of a rebound. It is advisable to take a small long position on dips [4][5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. Focus on the downstream startup in March, and if it is favorable, there is room for an increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [6][9]. - For protein meal, due to geopolitical crises, the prices fluctuated significantly with crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11][12]. - For oils and fats, short - term prices were driven up by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries at a low level, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [14][15]. - For eggs, the production capacity is declining but the pace is slow. The short - term supply is still high, and the spot price lacks the driving force for continuous increase. The futures price has a high premium. Adopt a strategy of selling on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - term contracts [17][18]. - For pigs, considering the high weight and theoretical output, the support from second - fattening is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weak and stable. For the near - term futures contracts, sell on rallies; for the far - term contracts, wait and see [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar 行情资讯 - StoneX reduced the forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 870,000 tons, mainly due to the reduction in the estimated sugar production in India from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 15,900 lots, equivalent to 808,000 tons [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that the net sugar production in India (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season would be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the previous forecast and a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons [4]. - As of the week of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.4939 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 609,000 tons of sugarcane, with a sugar output of 5,000 tons and a sugar - cane ratio of 6.63% [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 181.29 million tons, 480,000 tons less than the previous forecast [4]. 策略观点 - Short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. With the raw sugar price at a low level and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil after April, and domestic production pressure easing, there may be a rebound. Take a small long position on dips [5]. Cotton 行情资讯 - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption would remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. The export to China was 1,800 tons in the week, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [6]. - As of the week of March 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 73.2%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 percentage points, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [6]. - The USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 540,000 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.4 percentage points [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. The cumulative import in 2025 was 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. 策略观点 - Short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. Focus on the downstream startup in March, and if it is favorable, there is room for an increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. Protein Meal 行情资讯 - China imported 5.976 million tons of soybeans in February, and the cumulative import from January to February was 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural and StoneX reduced their forecasts of Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 177.8 million tons respectively [11]. - From February 19 to February 26, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. The export to China was 150,000 tons in the week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.028 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [11]. 策略观点 - Due to geopolitical crises, the prices fluctuated significantly with crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats 行情资讯 - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% [14]. - Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 581,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 622,000 tons (ITS data), an increase compared to the same period last month [14]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons [14]. - As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample inventory of three major oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. 策略观点 - Short - term prices were driven up by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries at a low level, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. Eggs 行情资讯 - The national egg price was generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream digestion was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable with slight fluctuations in some areas [17]. 策略观点 - The production capacity is declining but the pace is slow. The short - term supply is still high, and the spot price lacks the driving force for continuous increase. The futures price has a high premium. Adopt a strategy of selling on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - term contracts [18]. Pigs 行情资讯 - The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.11 yuan to 10.09 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi increased by 0.09 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram. The slaughter enthusiasm of standard - sized pigs was okay, the demand for large pigs was average, and the slaughter pressure was high. It is expected that today's national pig price will be stable in the north and increase in the south [20]. 策略观点 - Considering the high weight and theoretical output, the support from second - fattening is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weak and stable. For the near - term futures contracts, sell on rallies; for the far - term contracts, wait and see [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. With the raw sugar price at a historical low and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil's new season after April, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. In China, as sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, the pressure of increased production is relieved, and there may be a rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for Zheng cotton to rise. The strategy is to buy on dips [9]. - For protein meal, due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil price volatility led to significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil price increases drove up oil prices. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils in the medium term [16]. - For eggs, the production capacity is on a downward trend, but the reduction is slowing and less than expected. The short - term absolute supply is still high. The spot price is supported by short - term demand but lacks the power for continuous price increases. For the futures, it is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the cost - side support for the far - term contracts [19]. - For pigs, considering the high weight and theoretical出栏 volume, the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is not high, and the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. For the futures, it is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term contracts and wait and see for the far - term contracts [22]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 808,000 tons. India's sugar net production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season was predicted to be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the second prediction but a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons. The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. As of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons. Thailand's sugar production as of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, 480,000 tons less than the previous prediction [4]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The global cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. As of March 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 73.2%, an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is predicted to be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons more than the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [6][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: China's soybean imports in February 2026 were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The estimated soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 178 million tons (AgRural) and 177.8 million tons (StoneX), both lower than the previous predictions. From February 19 to 26, 2026, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons. The global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is predicted to be 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction but an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from the February prediction and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons. In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; and inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons. From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons (AmSpec) and 622,000 tons (ITS), both higher than the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month but a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons. As of March 6, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, egg prices in most areas were stable, with some showing slight fluctuations. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, but the downstream digestion speed was slightly slow. It is expected that today's egg prices will mostly remain stable with some slight adjustments [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.11 yuan to 10.2 yuan per kilogram. The enthusiasm of large - pig farmers for slaughter was high, but the market still had a large digestion pressure. The proportion of standard - pig slaughter was relatively small, and secondary fattening and frozen - product storage still supported the demand. It is expected that today's national pig prices will continue to decline slightly [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil, but with low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound, so consider buying on dips [5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated due to crude oil. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase, so maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. - For protein meal, affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils and fats, short - term prices rose due to geopolitical crisis. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. - For pigs, considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, and Suke敦 was the only buyer [4]. - ISMA predicted India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season to be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the second prediction and a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons [4]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets estimated Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. Sugar - making ratio was 48.6%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - As of March 4, 2026, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 609,000 tons of sugarcane, producing 5,000 tons of sugar, with a sugar - making ratio of 6.63% [4]. - ISO predicted the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous prediction [4]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng sugar prices rose and then fell. With low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil, don't be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound. Consider buying on dips [5]. Cotton Market Information - ICAC predicted a 4% decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - From February 26 to March 5, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Exports to China were 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [6]. - As of March 6, 2026, the spinning mill operation rate was 73.2%, an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [6]. - In January 2026, the predicted global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [8]. - In January 2026, the predicted US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December prediction. The export estimate remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction [8]. - Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng cotton prices rose and then fell. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - In February 2026, China's soybean imports were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - StoneX estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - From February 19 to February 26, 2026, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. Exports to China were 150,000 tons, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [11]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from the December prediction and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December prediction and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, the same as the December prediction and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. The US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons from the December prediction [11]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats Market Information - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - 2026 [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons. Exports were 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons. Inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 622,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 182,000 tons and 171,000 tons respectively from the previous month [14]. - As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons [14]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis, short - term oil prices rose. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.03 yuan to 3.06 yuan per catty. Supply was okay, downstream digestion was average, and some had a rational wait - and - see attitude. It's expected that today's egg price may be mostly stable with some narrow adjustments [17]. Strategy - Production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices were up, down, or stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 10.31 yuan per kilogram, in Sichuan increased by 0.04 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and in Guangxi remained at 10.02 yuan per kilogram. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was okay, there was still pressure to digest large pigs, and the demand for standard pigs was slightly supported by secondary fattening and frozen product storage. It's expected that today's national pig price may be stable in some areas and continue to decline slightly in others [20]. Strategy - Considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21].

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant disruption in oil supply, with Iraq's production dropping by over two-thirds and global oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel, marking the highest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] Group 1: Oil Supply Disruption - Iraq, as OPEC's second-largest oil producer, is facing a critical storage situation due to the inability to transport crude oil, leading to a production drop of over 66% [1] - Analysts predict that daily oil production in the region could decrease by over 4 million barrels, potentially expanding to about 9 million barrels by the end of March, which is nearly 10% of global demand [1] - Current statistics indicate that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have decreased by 17.1 million barrels per day, a figure that is 17 times greater than the decline in Russian oil production after the peak in April 2022 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The energy market is experiencing its most severe shock since the 1970s, with rising gasoline and diesel prices affecting consumers and increasing mortgage rates and borrowing costs in the U.S. [4] - The geopolitical crisis is expected to have lasting effects, particularly in Europe and Asia, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies [5] - The ongoing conflict has led to a surge in aluminum prices due to Middle Eastern refineries declaring force majeure, indicating a broader impact on commodity markets [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical precedents show that Middle Eastern oil disruptions have previously derailed the global economy, with the 1973 oil embargo causing oil prices to quadruple within three months [8] - The Iranian Revolution in the late 1970s also led to a significant drop in oil production, resulting in a doubling of oil prices and contributing to an economic recession in the U.S. [11] - The current situation is noted to be potentially more severe than past crises, with the Middle East accounting for about one-third of global oil production [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing crisis may lead to long-term changes in energy dependencies, as Qatar has emerged as a major LNG exporter, but recent attacks have exposed vulnerabilities in this supply chain [16][17] - The competition for LNG supplies has intensified, with countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh facing increased risks due to soaring prices and reduced availability [17] - Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the recovery of Qatar's production capacity is expected to take weeks, complicating the global energy landscape [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on TL2606 is a shock, the medium - term view is a shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Due to the geopolitical crisis and the market's shift in focus, the short - term upward drive of bond futures is insufficient, but there is still a strong support due to future interest rate cut expectations. Overall, bond futures will be in shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is a shock, the medium - term is a shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in narrow - range shock consolidation yesterday. The market logic has shifted from the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the geopolitical crisis to concerns about global crude oil supply. The short - term upward drive of bond futures is insufficient because the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. However, due to the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations of an interest rate cut, providing strong support for bond futures [5].