当然如果你这么想，也没有错，但是这仅仅只是从业绩层面。对于英伟达、OPEN AI这样的公司来说， 他们的发展不仅影响创始人团队的财富，更影响华尔街大佬的财富，甚至会影响美国的国运。 往大了说，未来中美的竞争，其实就是英伟达、OPEN AI等美国企业跟中国的华为、DPC等公司的竞争 而已。所以说这么大的一笔交易，如果没有站在更高层面考虑，那是不可能的。最近还有一个事情，那 就是甲骨文的老板埃里森成为了世界首富。这个事情跟OPEN AI也有关系，那就是OPEN AI给甲骨文一 张历史级的超级大订单，他们将在未来5年内向甲骨文采购3000亿美元的云计算服务。 在特朗普刚刚上台的时候，他就推出了一个5000亿美元的AI计划，还取了一个星际之门的名字。OPEN AI给甲骨文3000亿美元的订单，就是属于星际之门中的一部分。 消息出来的那一天，甲骨文的市值直接涨了40%。今年以来，美股为何一直涨，核心原因就是AI股的强 势。 人类历史上最大的单体投资来了，英伟达宣布给OPEN AI投资1000亿美元。那黄仁勋到底在想什么呢？ 到底只是因为钱太多，没地方花，还是有其他不为人知的考虑呢？ OPEN AI是美国目前最领袖的AI ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 5.5% [1] - On September 12, the Nasdaq index increased by 0.44%, marking a historical peak, while the US Technology Seven Giants Index rose by 1.14% [1][4] - Tesla's stock surged by 7.36%, resulting in an increase of nearly $90 billion in market capitalization [4][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate decision on September 18, with Deutsche Bank predicting three rate cuts in the remaining months of 2025 [1][10] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September, October, and December, driven by weak employment data and rising inflation concerns [10] Group 3: Tesla Developments - Tesla's Model YL, a six-seat electric SUV, has sold out in China, with new orders indicating delivery as late as November 2025 [7] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is expected to focus on the company's expansion in autonomous driving and AI, with significant long-term value anticipated from the Optimus robot and Robotaxi services [7][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4, the lowest since May, indicating economic slowdown and inflationary pressures [10] - The decline in consumer confidence supports the case for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy [10]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq index reached a new historical high, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 5.5% [1] - Major tech giants like Microsoft and Apple saw their stock prices increase by over 1%, contributing to the rise of the US Tech Seven Index [4] - Goldman Sachs highlighted that AI-driven tech giants and loose monetary policies are the two main pillars supporting the current bull market in US stocks [5][6] Group 2 - Tesla's stock surged by 7.36%, marking its largest daily increase in nearly three months, adding approximately $90 billion to its market value [8] - The demand for Tesla's new Model YL in China has been strong, with new orders indicating that the vehicle is sold out for October, and the earliest delivery is expected in November 2025 [11][12] - Tesla has received approval to test its Robotaxi service on public roads in Nevada, indicating progress in its autonomous driving initiatives [13] Group 3 - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.19% to $3680.70 per ounce, and silver futures up by 1.26% to $42.68 per ounce [15] - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [16] - JPMorgan forecasts that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, with gold prices potentially hitting $4000 per ounce sooner than expected [17] Group 4 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, the lowest since May, indicating concerns about the labor market and inflation [19] - This data suggests that the US economy is facing dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation, providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy [20] - Deutsche Bank has raised its forecast for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 from two to three, anticipating cuts in September, October, and December [20]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is gradually scaling back its nascent cloud computing business, specifically its DGX Cloud service, which indicates a shift in strategy and a response to limited demand in the cloud services market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Cloud Business Adjustments - Nvidia has reduced efforts to attract enterprises to use its DGX Cloud service and plans to primarily utilize this service for internal purposes, supporting its own researchers [2][3]. - The scaling back of the cloud business may reflect market resistance to Nvidia's pricing strategy, as AI developers find the DGX Cloud servers to be more expensive than traditional cloud services [3]. - Nvidia's recent quarterly report no longer specifies that its cloud spending commitments include DGX Cloud, suggesting a decreased priority for external customer service [3][4]. Group 2: Market Context and Performance - Following Nvidia's announcement, major tech stocks in the U.S. saw a rise, with Tesla surging over 7% and the Nasdaq index increasing by more than 1%, reaching a historical high [6]. - Goldman Sachs highlighted that AI-driven tech giants and loose monetary policies are the two main pillars supporting the current bull market in U.S. stocks [6]. - Despite uncertainties, Goldman Sachs projects a steady growth of 7% in earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 index over the next two years, reaching $262 and $280 respectively [6][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The earnings growth of the "S&P 493" (excluding the tech giants) was 7%, while the tech giants experienced a remarkable 28% growth, contrasting with a generally pessimistic macro narrative [7]. - Current valuations of the S&P 500 index are high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, placing it in the 96th percentile since 1980, indicating potential caution for investors [8]. - The report from Goldman Sachs also noted that the technical buying momentum supporting the market is weakening, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is scaling back its nascent cloud computing business, particularly its DGX Cloud service, which indicates limited demand and potential pricing resistance in the market [2][4][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Cloud Business Strategy - Nvidia is reducing efforts to attract enterprises to its DGX Cloud service, planning to primarily use it for internal purposes [2][3]. - The shift in strategy alleviates competitive pressure with major cloud service providers, particularly Amazon Web Services, which accounts for half of Nvidia's revenue [2][4]. - The company has stopped disclosing its cloud spending commitments for DGX Cloud in its latest quarterly report, suggesting a decreased focus on external customers [4][5]. Group 2: Market Context and Performance - Following Nvidia's announcement, major tech stocks in the U.S. saw a significant rise, with Tesla surging over 7% and the Nasdaq index reaching a historical high [2][9]. - Goldman Sachs highlighted that AI-driven tech giants and loose monetary policies are the two main pillars supporting the current bull market in U.S. stocks [2][9]. - Despite uncertainties, Goldman Sachs projects a steady 7% growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 index over the next two years, reaching $262 and $280 respectively [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Nvidia's CEO previously expressed ambitious goals for DGX Cloud, aiming to democratize access to AI infrastructure for large enterprises [5]. - The company's software business, including DGX Cloud, was reported to have an annualized revenue of $2 billion as of late 2023 [5]. - The performance of the "Tech Seven" index, which includes major tech companies, showed a remarkable 28% growth in earnings, contrasting with a 7% growth in the broader S&P 493 index [10].

Group 1 - The chief investment strategist of Bank of America, Michael Hartnett, predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach a historic high of 9914 points by September 2027, based on statistical analysis of past bull markets in the U.S. stock market over the last century [1][2] - Hartnett's analysis indicates that the average gain during the 14 bull markets in the past 100 years was 177%, with an average duration of 59 months, suggesting that the current market is in a significant bubble phase [2] - The report highlights that the market is "extremely expensive" by any traditional standard, with the market capitalization concentration of the AI Big 10 reaching 39% of the total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market [2] Group 2 - Hartnett compares the current market concentration to historical bubble peaks, such as the 40% concentration of the "Nifty Fifty" in 1972, the 45% concentration of the Japanese stock market in 1989, and the 40% concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500 in 2000 [2] - The capital expenditure of the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) has surged from 20% of their operating cash flow in 2012 to 55%, indicating a significant increase in investment relative to cash flow [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, supported by recent inflation and employment data [1][4][5] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with overall inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been unexpectedly mild, with energy prices down 1.1% and food prices stable, indicating that businesses are absorbing most of the additional costs associated with tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with potential downward revisions to employment data, which may pressure the Federal Reserve's stance [6][8] - The dollar index has resumed its downward trend, indicating potential weakness for the dollar unless other major central banks act more quickly to ease policies [8][9] - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by strong earnings recovery, particularly in the technology sector, which has outperformed other sectors [11][12] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is approaching the 24,000-point mark, with potential for further gains if it can maintain levels above 24,100 points [12] - The overall market rebound is concentrated among a few leading companies, with the S&P 500 index showing that only a small percentage of companies have reached new highs [11]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.73%, and the Nasdaq up 1.21% [1] Notable Stocks - Apple surged over 5%, and Walmart increased by more than 4%, leading the Dow [3] - The index of the seven major U.S. tech stocks rose by 1.74%, with Amazon up approximately 4% and Tesla up over 3% [3] Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the U.S. stock market may experience a phase adjustment in Q3, primarily due to the delayed impact of tariffs and fluctuating Federal Reserve policies [3] - Despite the potential for a Q3 adjustment, Morgan Stanley believes that the current bull market in U.S. stocks is not over, suggesting that the adjustment is more likely a "pause" rather than an "end," and that any pullback will present a buying opportunity [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a phase adjustment in Q3, primarily due to the lagging impact of tariffs and the fluctuating policies of the Federal Reserve. However, the current bull market is not expected to end, with adjustments seen as opportunities for investment rather than a market termination [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Since the low in April, the S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26%. As Q3 approaches, concerns arise from weak non-farm employment data and inflation worries due to tariffs, leading to market uncertainty about the continuation of the bull market [3][4]. Bull Market Logic - The bull market's foundation is rooted in a V-shaped recovery of earnings revision breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently. This indicator is crucial for confirming market bottoms and has historically led earnings surprise data [6]. Tariff Impact and Federal Reserve Policy - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting consumer goods sectors with weak pricing power, while industrial firms that can pass on costs will be less affected. Labor market data adds to policy uncertainty, with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [9]. Earnings Growth and Fed Policy Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the outlook for the next 12 months remains bullish, supported by three main factors: increased certainty in earnings growth, with consensus predicting a 9% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 and 14% in 2026; the eventual shift in Fed policy towards rate cuts; and resilience in valuations and liquidity, with the S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio remaining at reasonable levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26% since the low in April, but concerns about weak non-farm payroll data and inflation fears due to tariffs may lead to a pause in the bull market during the third quarter [1][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests a potential phase adjustment in the U.S. stock market in Q3, driven by the lagging effects of tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty [1][8] - Despite the potential for a pullback, Morgan Stanley believes the current bull market is not over, viewing any adjustments as opportunities for buying on dips [1][8] Group 2: Earnings and Economic Indicators - The core driver of the bull market is the V-shaped recovery in Earnings Revision Breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently, indicating a confirmation of the market bottom [5] - The "rolling earnings recession" that began in early 2022 is nearing its end, with companies cutting costs and labor to pave the way for profit margin expansion [5] Group 3: Tariff and Labor Market Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting industries with weak pricing power, while industrial companies that can pass on costs will be less affected [8] - Recent labor market data has heightened policy uncertainty, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing the worst revisions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term risks, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, supported by enhanced earnings growth certainty, with consensus expectations for S&P 500 EPS growth of 9% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to eventually shift its policy, with a high probability of entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2026 as inflation pressures ease and the labor market cools [11] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains high, but the 10-year Treasury yield is stable below 4.5%, indicating resilience in equity risk premiums without clear signs of a bubble [11]