1）价格：2026H1预计猪价延续低迷，行业延续低利润。2）产能：产能政策和周期调节，产能去化持续。3）负债降低，成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成 长性的生猪养殖企业。 禽养殖：白鸡供需静待修复，黄鸡需求或提升。 1）白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷，供需回归平衡尚需时间。2）黄鸡价格或将小幅修复，关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。 牛养殖：养殖周期长，供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。 报告导读： 2026年，生猪和肉牛养殖有望迎来周期拐点。宠物赛道成长性明确，产销研 三环节俱全具备的公司在卷流量竞争中有望获胜。种植赛道特色标的成长性显著，值得关 注。 生猪养殖：政策、周期双驱动，产能逻辑催化。 宠物：成长明确，国产崛起，产销研三环节俱全具备强竞争力。 1）宠物市场蓬勃发展，宠物主消费力仍强，且为宠物付费的意愿提升，宠物赛道成长性明确。2）2025年行业陷入卷流量做大收入规模困境，宠物品牌在营 销费用投放方面加大力度，影响行业公司短期利润率。3）产销研三环节俱全的公司稀缺，此类公司有望在行业竞争中获得胜利，关注自主品牌增速和价格提 升情况。 风险提示： 气温气候大幅波动的风险；农产品价格大幅波动的风险；养殖疫情和农产 ...

嘉宾： 01 破旧立新，行稳致远——2026融达期货年度策略会（上） 14:00-17:20 核心看点： 破旧立新，行稳致远！2026宏观主线如何演变？钢 铁、双焦、铁合金、铝市供需格局将如何重塑？弘 则研究与融达期货联合发声，深度解析黑色与有色 产业链投资逻辑。一场聚焦周期拐点与资产配置的 年度策略前瞻，不容错过！ 张绪成 | 开源证券能源＆建材首席分析师 李晓瞳 | 弘则研究宏观分析师 魏忻悦 | |弘则研究建材组组长 李娟 | 融达期货铁合金分析师 贾双华 | 融达期货黑色研究员 李魁 | 融达期货有色研究员 扫码预约 02 煤炭丨开源张绪成：煤炭反内卷重塑价值，周期与红利攻守兼备【首席开麦2025】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： 2016年以来供给侧改革成功的标杆与典范，随着国 内能源结构的转型、以及双碳政策深入推进，行业 有望再次迎来供给侧改革（即反内卷）。供给侧改 革或反内卷的标准定义分为两个阶段：一是减产量 抬煤价，二是去产能调结构，二者缺一不可，且二 是一的基础。碳达峰之后我们会面临再次的产能过 剩，当前提前着手于供给端的产能优化，有望促使 煤炭价格趋于合理稳定。我们分析认为翘盼的反内 ...

农林牧渔行业 2026 年策略：产业转型升 级，静候周期拐点 2025 年 12 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 | | | 投资摘要： 展望 2026 年农业投资，我们建议关注以下三条投资主线： 主线一：生猪养殖--产能去化逐步深化，静待周期拐点。 我们认为生猪养殖行业的供需格局向好，短期生猪供过于求趋势持续，预计在 26 年上半年仍将给猪价带来压力，行业性亏 损持续。价格磨底与亏损是无形的手，政策引导产能调控是有形的手，二者有机结合，产能去化将逐步深化，26 年下半年供 应压力将逐步缓解，需求端相对平稳，预计行业供需格局持续向好。 非洲猪瘟后，生猪养殖结构出现变化，表现为规模化程度快速提升和短期养户增多，受此影响行业产能变动表现为难涨难跌 的窄幅波动，对应生猪供需矛盾减弱，在养殖正常出栏的情况下，猪价波动幅度收窄。我们认为，成本是猪企能否实现行业 超额收益和长期成长的核心要素，并且成本因素在周期下行期的重要性尤为突出。在未来几年，猪企表现将有明显分化，具 备成本优势的企业有望维持温和扩张，而落后产能将被进一步淘汰。 我们认为，板块估值低位具备安全性，26 年板块基本面持续向好静待拐点，头部企 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a decline on November 21, with the Chemical ETF (516020) dropping over 4% at one point and closing down 2.84% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant losses, with Enjie hitting the daily limit down and Tianqi falling over 8% [1][2] - The Chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.5%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (17.28%) and the CSI 300 Index (16.01%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced a continuous decline in product prices for four years, but recent policies aimed at reducing competition may signal a turning point [3][4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is 2.37, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [4] - Analysts suggest that the industry may see improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability due to the "anti-involution" policies, with a focus on sectors like pesticides and organic silicon [5][6] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [5][6] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Chemical ETF as a more efficient way to gain exposure to the chemical sector [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a phase adjustment in Q3, primarily due to the lagging impact of tariffs and the fluctuating policies of the Federal Reserve. However, the current bull market is not expected to end, with adjustments seen as opportunities for investment rather than a market termination [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Since the low in April, the S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26%. As Q3 approaches, concerns arise from weak non-farm employment data and inflation worries due to tariffs, leading to market uncertainty about the continuation of the bull market [3][4]. Bull Market Logic - The bull market's foundation is rooted in a V-shaped recovery of earnings revision breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently. This indicator is crucial for confirming market bottoms and has historically led earnings surprise data [6]. Tariff Impact and Federal Reserve Policy - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting consumer goods sectors with weak pricing power, while industrial firms that can pass on costs will be less affected. Labor market data adds to policy uncertainty, with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [9]. Earnings Growth and Fed Policy Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the outlook for the next 12 months remains bullish, supported by three main factors: increased certainty in earnings growth, with consensus predicting a 9% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 and 14% in 2026; the eventual shift in Fed policy towards rate cuts; and resilience in valuations and liquidity, with the S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio remaining at reasonable levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26% since the low in April, but concerns about weak non-farm payroll data and inflation fears due to tariffs may lead to a pause in the bull market during the third quarter [1][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests a potential phase adjustment in the U.S. stock market in Q3, driven by the lagging effects of tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty [1][8] - Despite the potential for a pullback, Morgan Stanley believes the current bull market is not over, viewing any adjustments as opportunities for buying on dips [1][8] Group 2: Earnings and Economic Indicators - The core driver of the bull market is the V-shaped recovery in Earnings Revision Breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently, indicating a confirmation of the market bottom [5] - The "rolling earnings recession" that began in early 2022 is nearing its end, with companies cutting costs and labor to pave the way for profit margin expansion [5] Group 3: Tariff and Labor Market Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting industries with weak pricing power, while industrial companies that can pass on costs will be less affected [8] - Recent labor market data has heightened policy uncertainty, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing the worst revisions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term risks, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, supported by enhanced earnings growth certainty, with consensus expectations for S&P 500 EPS growth of 9% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to eventually shift its policy, with a high probability of entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2026 as inflation pressures ease and the labor market cools [11] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains high, but the 10-year Treasury yield is stable below 4.5%, indicating resilience in equity risk premiums without clear signs of a bubble [11]