Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with July CPI showing moderate inflation pressure, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September to as high as 95% probability, but the July PPI reported the largest increase in three years, dampening those expectations [2][3] - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin lasted 2.5 hours but did not result in a final agreement to end the conflict, with both leaders indicating progress but lacking concrete outcomes [2] Market Impact - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a key catalyst for the doubling of gold prices since late 2022, and any signs of a ceasefire could reduce gold's safe-haven demand, leading to significant price volatility in the short term [3] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve will remain a focal point, with the July meeting minutes to be released and the annual global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled for August 21-23, where Fed Chair Powell's speech will be particularly significant [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a downward trend since reaching a high of 3500, currently undergoing a 4th wave adjustment phase, with the price fluctuating within a broad range [6] - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a 4th wave adjustment, with recent movements reflecting profit-taking and market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution [7] - On the hourly chart, gold is currently in the C-3 wave of a downward trend, with critical support levels to watch for potential further declines [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that now is not a good time for a shift in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - Bostic emphasized the importance of maintaining the current monetary policy stance to ensure economic stability [1] - He indicated that the economy is showing signs of resilience, which supports the decision to keep rates steady [1] - The Fed's current approach aims to balance inflation control with economic growth [1]