日本央行前首席经济学家关根敏隆认为，市场对日本央行10月可能加息的押注，低估了特朗普关税措施 带来的不确定性。 "特朗普政府采取的举措对抗性强且难以预测，几乎让我都不想看新闻了，"现任一桥大学经济学教授的 关根敏隆说。"市场可以犯错，这没关系；但货币政策不行。政策不能这么轻易改变。" 这位前央行官员提到本世纪头十年日本央行的历史：当时加息并退出宽松被广泛批评为过早。事后来 看，经济仍深陷通缩之中。 日本央行行长植田和男已承诺将密切关注美国关税的影响。市场普遍预计，央行在9月19日结束的政策 会议将把利率维持在0.5%。 责任编辑：栎树 "我想说的是，不确定性比市场参与者可能认为的更大，"关根敏隆称。"如果让我在10月份确定关税的 潜在影响，我会说'不'。" 随着日本经济韧性显现，部分经济学家将10月列为日本央行下一次加息的最可能时点。关根敏隆表示， 他并不完全排除加息的可能性，因为包括汇率在内的一系列因素都会影响决策。但要在那个时间点宣称 经济风险已充分消退，恐怕很难。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded for the second consecutive week, approaching previous horizontal resistance levels, with a potential target of $3533 in the near term, despite some pullback risks [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3371.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, recorded a low of $3351.20 on Tuesday, and subsequently rebounded to reach a high of $3453.75, closing at $3449.09, marking a weekly increase of $77.16 or 2.29% [3][9]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $102.55, indicating strong volatility in the market [3]. Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest at the mid-band and 60-day moving averages, alongside increasing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, along with favorable consumer confidence and inflation expectations, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with the potential for further price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the likelihood of a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - The market is currently positioned above several moving averages, indicating a favorable environment for potential bullish entries upon any pullbacks [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is anticipated to face resistance around $3455 to $3470, while support levels are identified at $3425 and $3400 [10]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, suggesting a higher probability of price increases in the near future [5][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current fluctuations in the gold market and the potential impact of Trump's tariff measures on gold prices [1] - It raises questions about whether the recent trend will continue after a pullback [1] Group 1 - Gold is experiencing volatility, with ongoing analysis regarding its market behavior [1] - The influence of Trump's tariff policies on the gold market is a focal point of discussion [1] - There is a live analysis session being conducted by a team member, indicating active engagement in market trends [1]

Group 1 - The Vice President of the United States, Vance, criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating that while Powell is a decent person, he has been wrong on almost all matters, particularly in addressing inflation issues caused by former President Biden and responding to trade agreements under the Trump administration [1][3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller defended the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that its structure has withstood the test of time and should be preserved to ensure objective and non-partisan policy-making, which is crucial for economic stability and reducing inflation [3]. - Powell warned that if Trump's tariffs remain at current levels, it could delay the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its mandated goals, leading to higher inflation risks and increased unemployment [3][5]. Group 2 - Powell, who was nominated by Trump in 2017 and re-nominated by Biden in 2022, has faced criticism from Trump, who has previously urged for interest rate cuts and threatened Powell's position [5]. - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut, reflecting concerns about rising unemployment and inflation risks in the current economic climate [5][6]. - Recent economic data showed that in April, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating mixed signals in the economy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, raising concerns among economists and investors about the overall economic environment [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - In February, the ADP reported an increase of 77,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 140,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 [2]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare [2]. - Employment changes by sector in February: - Trade/Transportation/Utilities: Decreased by 33,000 jobs, following an increase of 56,000 in January [2]. - Construction: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in January [2]. - Professional/Business Services: Increased by 27,000 jobs, compared to 14,000 in January [2]. - Manufacturing: Increased by 18,000 jobs, reversing a decrease of 13,000 in January [2]. - Financial Services: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 13,000 in January [2]. Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that uncertainty in policy and a slowdown in consumer spending may have contributed to the recent layoffs and hiring hesitance [4]. - The rising number of unemployment claims and concerns about future unemployment rates are indicative of a cooling labor market [4]. - Market attention is focused on the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, which could further confirm fears of an economic slowdown and influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show an increase of 153,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4% [5].