当地时间11月26日，美联储发布的最新褐皮书调查报告显示，美国经济正面临多重压力。这份基于全美 12家地区联储银行截至11月17日收集信息编制的报告显示，美国经济活动在近几周几无变化，但消费支 出整体进一步下滑，就业市场出现轻微走弱迹象。 因此前美国政府"停摆"导致大量传统经济数据延迟发布，这份被称为"褐皮书"的经济形势调查报告正成 为美联储12月政策会议前最关键的参考依据之一。 三重压力 就业方面，整体"略有下降"，全美12个地区中，有约一半通报劳动需求趋软。 尽管近期裁员公告有所增加，但多数地区企业更倾向于通过冻结招聘、仅替补式增员及自然流失等方式 缩减人力规模，而非直接裁员。同时，不少企业选择以调节员工工作时间来应对需求变化，而非调整员 工数量。 薪资增长虽然保持温和，但制造业、建筑业和医疗保健领域仍面临薪资压力。 价格压力持续存在。褐皮书指出，整体价格"温和上升"，制造商和零售商普遍受到关税带来的更高投入 成本影响。 一些零售商提到联邦政府"停摆"对消费带来的负面影响。此外，制造业和零售业出现广泛成本上涨压 力，反映出关税引起的成本增加。展望未来，联邦储备区所联系的企业大多预期成本上涨压力会持续。 美 ...

11月17日公布的数据显示，美国11月纽约联储制造业指数从前值10.7大幅攀升至18.7。这反映出美国制 造业具有相当的韧性。 近期，一系列的美国最新的就业数据表明美国的就业市场出现了疲软的迹象。同时，美国政府持续一个 多月的停摆也给美国经济蒙上了阴影。在这样的背景下，最新11月纽约联储制造业指数所呈现的大幅攀 升使得市场看到了美国经济的增长动力。 当前，美联储内部对于12月议息会议上的货币政策走向存在很大的分歧。近期部分美联储重要官员发表 的彼此相互抵触的观点再一次印证了美联储内部在货币政策方面的这种分歧。如果在12月议息会议前有 更多的经济数据表明美国经济具有相当的增长动力，那么美联储就有可能在12月暂停降息。 不过，笔者认为，正是因为某些经济数据显现了美国经济的韧性，这很可能会误导美联储在货币政策的 决策上再次出现滞后于市场的局面，从而导致美国经济面临更大的增长阻力和不确定性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides inventory data for different industries and corporate earnings reports, reflecting the complex and changeable situation of the current market [3][24][42]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with Jiaomei, coke, methanol, and rubber rising over 1%, while stainless steel, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and silver falling over 1% [3]. - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.91% at $3602.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.77% at $41.32 per ounce. The Fed has intensified internal differences on monetary policy [3]. - Oil prices were pressured by OPEC's production increase expectations. WTI crude futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 1.11% to $66.85 per barrel. High - grade expects Brent crude to fall to $50 in 2026 due to oversupply [3]. - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.11% at $2590.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.84% at $9891.50 per ton, etc. [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - originated optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 4, domestic soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.54 million tons week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons, a decline of 2.43%. Float glass sample enterprise inventory increased by 484,000 heavy boxes week - on - week to 63.05 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.77% [8]. - As of September 4, the inventory of fixed caustic soda sample enterprises increased by 2.17% week - on - week to 387,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.76% week - on - week to 20.97% [8]. - As of September 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.675 million barrels to 27.399 million barrels, a 37 - week high [10]. - As of September 4, East China port methanol inventory increased by 65,100 tons week - on - week to 709,900 tons [11]. - As of August 29, US natural gas inventory increased by 55 billion cubic feet week - on - week to 3272 billion cubic feet, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [11]. - For the week of August 29, US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels [11]. Metal Futures The inventory data for soda ash, caustic soda, fuel oil, methanol, natural gas, and crude oil are the same as those in the energy and chemical futures section [13][14][16]. Black - Series Futures - The Coking Association believes that coke does not have the conditions for price cuts and will jointly limit production to maintain prices [18]. - As of September 4, rebar production decreased by 18,800 tons week - on - week to 2.1868 million tons, factory inventory increased by 17,200 tons week - on - week to 1.7134 million tons, social inventory increased by 148,900 tons week - on - week to 4.6866 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0207 million tons [18]. - The average national profit per ton of coke is 64 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07%, with different trends in different regions, and the total output is estimated to be 1.85 million tons [21]. - As of September 1, Xinjiang cotton's average boll opening rate is 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points week - on - week. New cotton is expected to be listed 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [21]. - As of September 2, about 16% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought (previously 11%, 19% last year), about 9% of corn planting areas are affected (previously 5%, 13% last year), and about 30% of cotton planting areas are affected (unchanged from the previous week, 41% last year) [21]. - Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons, soybean meal exports are expected to be 6.37 million tons, and corn exports are expected to be 1.94 million tons [22]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares weakened unilaterally, with technology stocks falling widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan [24]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.12% to 25058.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.25%. The market turnover was HK$302.233 billion [26]. - Some public funds believe that the A - share correction on September 4 is a normal adjustment [26]. - As of the end of August, the market value of the Hong Kong securities market was HK$46.6 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 47%. The average daily trading volume in August was HK$279.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 192% [27]. - Zijin Mining plans to conduct an IPO of its international gold mining business in Hong Kong, with a potential financing of over $3 billion [28]. Industry - From January to July, China's renewable energy new installed capacity was 283 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [29]. - In September, the enthusiasm of real estate developers to launch new projects increased. The supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month [29]. - The Securities Association of China launched the evaluation of the investment banking, bond, and major asset restructuring financial advisory businesses of securities companies in 2025 [30]. Overseas - US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US - Japan trade agreement. Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [32]. - The US trade deficit in July soared 32.5% month - on - month to $78.3 billion, a four - month high [32]. - The US government criticized Norway's sovereign wealth fund for exiting its investment in Caterpillar [32]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook [32]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a nearly 100% probability [33]. - US companies announced the addition of only 1494 jobs in August, the lowest in the same period since 2009, and the announced layoffs soared to nearly 86,000 [33]. - The US ISM services PMI in August was 52, the fastest expansion in six months [35]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell [36]. - European stocks showed mixed performance, with the German DAX up 0.74%, the French CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.42% [36]. - Nasdaq plans to modify the listing rules for small IPOs, raising the minimum public shareholding and fundraising thresholds [36]. - Deutsche Börse Group will remove Porsche from the DAX index on September 22 [37]. - Goldman Sachs will invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price and cooperate to sell private products to retail investors [38]. - Waterdrop's Q2 net revenue was 838 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58.7% [39]. - Broadcom's adjusted EPS in Q3 was $1.69, revenue was $15.952 billion [41]. Commodities The performance of precious metals, oil, and base metals is the same as that in the overnight night - market trends section. The OPEC + meeting has not determined the agenda, and an increase in production by 8 countries is not currently on the agenda [42][43]. Bonds - The confidence in the bond market is still insufficient. Bank - to - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, and most Treasury bond futures rose [44]. - The bid - to - cover ratio of Japan's 30 - year Treasury bond auction was 3.31, slightly lower than the 12 - month average [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402 on Thursday, up 66 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate was 7.1052, up 56 basis points [47]. - The US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28. Most non - US currencies fell [47].