基本面方面，美联储在12月会议上决定降息，但会议纪要显示这一决策并非共识性结果。部分支持降息的官员强调，此次行动是权衡利弊后的选择，甚至 存在维持利率不变的可能性。多数与会者认为，若通胀如期逐步回落，未来进一步降息具备合理性。然而，会议纪要连续两次凸显政策制定者之间的显著 分歧，反映出当前美联储货币政策调整的复杂性与不确定性。 从技术上看，本周初国际金价刷新历史新高后跳水，直接跌破本周多空分水岭4474美元/盎司及下方第一支撑4398美元/盎司双重支撑位，说明短期空头力 量的强大，周内行情已经由多头转向空头，4小时图形中走势已经进入空头模型中，如无意外国际金价大概率还会继续下探。 与会者普遍预期2026年经济增速将加快，中期内经济活动与潜在产出水平基本匹配。财政政策调整、监管环境优化及有利的金融市场条件被视为关键支撑 因素。但官员们也指出，美国经济增速的不确定性仍较高。此外，人工智能等技术进步可能通过提升生产率在不推高通胀的前提下促进经济增长，但需关 注其对就业增长的潜在抑制作用。 下行方面，关注支撑4264美元/盎司附近，若国际金价有效跌破该位置，支撑调整至4188美元/盎司附近。上行方面，关注阻力4398 ...

今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦金现货最新报价为4355.41美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨23.76美元/ 盎司，涨幅达0.55%，伦敦金日内价格最高触及4355.92美元/盎司，最低下探至4322.53美元/盎司，昨日 收盘价为4331.65美元/盎司，今日开盘价为4329.39美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 美联储在12月初完成年内第三次降息后，已明确释放"暂停行动"信号。即将公布的会议纪要，将帮助市 场判断这一政策"休眠期"会持续多久。 前美联储官员克劳迪娅.萨赫姆指出："在通胀未见实质改善的背景下，年内已累计降息75个基点，预计 美联储将进入较长的观望阶段。" 摘要今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦金现货最新报价为4355.41美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨23.76 美元/盎司，涨幅达0.55%，伦敦金日内价格最高触及4355.92美元/盎司，最低下探至4322.53美元/盎司， 昨日收盘价为4331.65美元/盎司，今日开盘价为4329.39美元/盎司。 官员们普遍认为，三次降息已使政策接近"中性"，既不过度刺激也不抑制经济。但在通胀与增长风险孰 轻孰重的问题上，内部仍存分歧，维持现有利率水平 ...

11月17日公布的数据显示，美国11月纽约联储制造业指数从前值10.7大幅攀升至18.7。这反映出美国制 造业具有相当的韧性。 近期，一系列的美国最新的就业数据表明美国的就业市场出现了疲软的迹象。同时，美国政府持续一个 多月的停摆也给美国经济蒙上了阴影。在这样的背景下，最新11月纽约联储制造业指数所呈现的大幅攀 升使得市场看到了美国经济的增长动力。 当前，美联储内部对于12月议息会议上的货币政策走向存在很大的分歧。近期部分美联储重要官员发表 的彼此相互抵触的观点再一次印证了美联储内部在货币政策方面的这种分歧。如果在12月议息会议前有 更多的经济数据表明美国经济具有相当的增长动力，那么美联储就有可能在12月暂停降息。 不过，笔者认为，正是因为某些经济数据显现了美国经济的韧性，这很可能会误导美联储在货币政策的 决策上再次出现滞后于市场的局面，从而导致美国经济面临更大的增长阻力和不确定性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut within 2025 and a continuation of the easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in 2024 [2] - The decision to cut rates is primarily driven by a weak labor market, which poses greater risks than the moderate rebound in inflation, prompting the Fed to take "preventive" measures [2] - The dot plot indicates that among 19 Fed officials, 9 expect one more rate cut this year, while another 9 anticipate two additional cuts, and one official predicts a total cut of 125 basis points [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% year-to-date, driven by market sentiment surrounding the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The current gold price is trading around $3,657.58 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.05%, and has shown a bullish short-term trend [1][2] - Analysts expect that while geopolitical factors may introduce volatility in gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive as gold serves as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently supported by the 183-hour moving average, with potential resistance at $3,685/86 if the price breaks above the 20-period moving average [4] - The Fed's dovish stance is expected to benefit gold in a low-interest-rate environment, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and supports inflation expectations [4]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing its most complex power transition challenge in history, which creates significant uncertainty in the market [2][4] - Historical parallels are drawn between current pressures on the Federal Reserve and past events, highlighting the potential for long-term economic impacts [4] - The behavior of institutional funds in response to macro changes will ultimately influence market dynamics, often leaving ordinary investors at a disadvantage [4] Group 2 - In the age of information overload, investors experience heightened anxiety due to the inability to discern true market behaviors [5] - A focus on real trading data rather than being swayed by news can lead to better investment decisions [5][6] - Quantitative data processing reveals underlying market dynamics that are not immediately visible, helping to clarify the true nature of market movements [8][12] Group 3 - Quantitative analysis can transform chaotic market behaviors into recognizable and analyzable information, akin to using an X-ray to view internal structures [14] - Understanding the operational patterns of institutional funds can provide insights into market behavior, applicable to both macro events and individual stock fluctuations [15] Group 4 - Key insights for investors include focusing on behavioral patterns rather than news, establishing a personal data analysis system, maintaining independent thought, and accumulating long-term observations to grasp market rules [17]