特朗普关心的只有鲍威尔对9月降息的立场，但市场更关注的还有，鲍威尔可能如何阐述美联储现行货 币政策框架修订计划。 近期美国就业数据疲软，使得市场降息预期陡升，美债投资者押注美联储9月至少降息25个基点，且年 内还将有一次降息。过往的年会中，鲍威尔曾发表过撼动市场的讲话内容，但此次，市场普遍预计，他 将更为"鸽派"，顺从降息预期。为此，美债收益率已全线下跌，对利率最为敏感的两年期美债收益率降 幅最大。即便如此，美国总统特朗普还是不放心，在年会召开在即时，再度"敲打"鲍威尔。 年会前再度敲打鲍威尔 当地时间周二（19日），特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道："谁能告诉'太晚先生'鲍威尔， 他正在严重伤害房地产行业。因为他，人们无法获得抵押贷款。通货膨胀没有出现，所有迹象都表明利 率应该大幅下降。'太晚先生'简直是一场灾难！"今年以来，特朗普还曾用"愚蠢""白痴"和"傻瓜"等词形 容过鲍威尔，但在市场此前预言了"辞退鲍威尔"交易后，特朗普近期鲜少提及提前辞退鲍威尔的说法 了，而是加速任命"影子主席"的进程。 当地时间本周四晚间，杰克逊霍尔央行年会就将在美国怀俄明州小镇杰克逊霍尔拉开帷幕，其中最受瞩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference is highly anticipated, particularly for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, with expectations leaning towards a dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts due to recent weak employment data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following signals from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts, U.S. real estate stocks have seen a preemptive rise, with the Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index climbing above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is set for a review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [8]. - There is speculation that Powell may abolish the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was designed during a low-inflation period, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target due to the changing economic landscape post-pandemic [8]. - Powell hinted at the possibility of this change in a May speech, acknowledging that future inflation volatility may be significantly higher than in the previous decade [8].