Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Industrial inventories are accumulating but still at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,639.50 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 6,478 lots to 172,204 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper increased by 6,397 lots to - 1,607 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 25 tons to 40,975 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 34,379 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,455 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot was 78,520 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper increased by 2.5 dollars to 45.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, down 20.62 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters increased by 0.46 dollars to - 43.79 dollars/thousand tons. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,800 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,500 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production of refined copper was 1.254 billion tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 34,000 tons to 464,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan to 55,290 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products increased by 1.5 million tons to 209.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure increased by 63.169 billion yuan to 203.986 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development increased by 85.0427 billion yuan to 362.3384 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of integrated circuits increased by 68,000 pieces to 4,235,000,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper decreased by 0.29% to 10.25%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.04% to 9.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month increased by 0.0011% to 11.93%, and the put - call ratio of the at - the - money option decreased by 0.0213 to 1.66 [2]. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have confused the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [2]. - Data from the National Information Center showed that in the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields such as consumption, investment, industrial production, and business operations in China continued to improve. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, the online retail sales of major household appliances increased by 28.0%, the national project winning bid amount increased by 23.4% month - on - month, and the business vitality indexes of start - up enterprises and technology - innovative enterprises increased by 38.3% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively [2]. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2]. - Yuyuantan Tian published an article pointing out that in 2025, the global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The unpredictability of US tariff policies has created uncertainty but also promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. Although the US is still an important participant in global trade, its influence is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies, especially those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, are becoming new growth points in global trade [2]. - Fu Bingfeng, the executive vice - president and secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that as of now, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, up 41 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 149,902 lots, down 7,527 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 3,115 lots, up 4,480 lots. The LME copper inventory was 95,875 tons, down 3,325 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 22,425 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 37.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 274.99 dollars/ton, up 141.63 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 44.78 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,780 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 69,480 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 2,040 billion yuan, up 631.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,235,000 million pieces, up 68,000 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.47%, down 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.91%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.79%, up 0.0019%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.05, up 0.0053 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 36.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 10.8 billion kilowatts, an increase of 56.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 5.7 billion kilowatts, an increase of 23.1%. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance met with the delegation of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Many places have broadened the proposed investment fields of special bonds. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June remained stable at 52, the highest since February. The Fed's vice - chair said that a rate cut might be supported as early as July [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending the implementation of 24% of tariffs, and China suspending or canceling non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will help foreign trade enterprises. Fundamentally, the copper import TC spot index continues to decline, and the supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The overall supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. Demand may weaken as downstream consumption approaches the off - peak season, and the inventory reduction rate is slowing down. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars emerging above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to hold a light position with a slightly bullish view on the volatile market, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,556.50 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 181,940 lots, down 5,790 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 10,832 lots, up 5,188 lots. The LME copper inventory is 190,750 tons, down 1,025 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 80,705 tons, down 8,602 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 29,157 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,275 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,505 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 115 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 99 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 185 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 23.87 US dollars/ton, down 25.32 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.39 million tons, up 21.10 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,760 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,460 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the South is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it is 750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 124.80 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 32,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 212.52 million tons, down 14.76 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 19,904.17 billion yuan, up 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.87%, down 7.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.22%, down 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 14.67%, down 0.0070 percentage points; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.86, up 0.0523 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials are cautious about interest - rate actions due to policy uncertainties. Goldman Sachs adjusts the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raises the Q4 2025 US economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowers the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%, while also lowering the core PCE inflation forecast. In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with significant growth in new - energy vehicle production and sales. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to both sides modifying tariff policies, and China will suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. The Ministry of Commerce will support foreign trade enterprises [2]