Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal "hawkish" stance is intensifying, with a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts as inflation remains above target levels[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%[9] - The U.S. government shutdown lasting over 43 days has created a data void, impacting the Fed's assessment of economic conditions[9] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. ADP private sector employment decreased by 45,000 jobs in October, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market[14] - The UK’s Q3 GDP grew by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September[20] - Japan's PPI growth slowed to 2.66% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures[21] Group 3: Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14% amid market adjustments following the end of the government shutdown[30] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate hikes[30] - The S&P 500 index saw a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 18.59%[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to significant volatility in the Asian foreign exchange market, prompting the Bank of Indonesia to intervene to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision on interest rate cuts in September remains uncertain, which has driven the dollar to a two-month high, adversely affecting emerging market currencies [1][4]. - Powell's comments during the FOMC press conference did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, suggesting that current interest rates are appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4]. Group 2: Indonesian Central Bank's Actions - The Bank of Indonesia confirmed its intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupiah, which had depreciated by 0.4% to 16,460 per dollar, marking its lowest level in over a month [1][4]. - Erwin Hutapea, the Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia, stated that the central bank is using various tools, including spot transactions, non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF), and government bond purchases, to maintain the stability of the rupiah [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and other regional currencies, with concerns that strong U.S. economic performance may delay the Fed's rate cut timeline [5]. - The dollar index reached a two-month high, contributing to widespread pressure on Asian currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah [5].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 1.4320, influenced by upcoming tariff details from President Trump and mixed economic data from the US, indicating a divergence in the economic structure between services and manufacturing [1][3][8]. Economic Data Summary - The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in February, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024 [3]. - The Services PMI increased significantly from 51.0 to 54.3, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, while the Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8, below the expected 51.8 [3]. - The overall economic landscape in the US is characterized by strong services and weak manufacturing sectors [3]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment remains cautious regarding Trump's upcoming tariff announcements, with concerns that a broader range of tariffs could heighten global trade uncertainty [3][8]. - The potential for tariff exemptions for many countries has alleviated some concerns for Canadian businesses, contributing to the relative stability of the Canadian dollar [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD has been trading within a range of 1.4288 to 1.4400 since mid-March, with key moving averages indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [4][6]. - A breakout above 1.4333 could lead to testing the previous high of 1.4400, while a drop below 1.4307 would necessitate monitoring the support at 1.4288 [4][6][8]. - The four-hour chart suggests that if the price surpasses 1.4388, it may challenge the 1.4419 level, but failure to do so could result in continued range-bound trading [6][8].