美联储内部"鹰派"表态升温，本周关注 9 月非农数据 海外宏观周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） 作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心内容 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 徐嘉琦 执行总监 冯琳 上周特朗普签署临时拨款法案，美国政府结束史上最长关 门，部分关键数据后续将陆续发布。政府停摆造成的经济 数据空白影响美联储对经济状况的判断，联储内部"鹰派" 表态升温，12 月降息预期回撤推动美债收益率上行。本 周重点关注美国 9 月非农报告（11 月 20 日）。 时间 2025 年 11 月 17 日 上周公布的英国三季度 GDP 季调环比增长 0.1%，9 月失业 率上升至 5.0%。英国财政大臣里夫斯确认，政府不会在 本轮预算案中实施提高所得税税率的措施，财政政策不确 定性动摇市场对英国财政可持续性的信心，十年期国债收 益率大幅上行。 日本央行公布的 10 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要显 示，多数委员认为加息条件正在逐步成熟，少数人主张维 持宽松，以观察通胀是否稳定在 2%以上。整体来看，此 次意见摘要释放出"加息预期升温但仍谨慎"的信号，未 来仍需重点关注工资及物价数据。 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to significant volatility in the Asian foreign exchange market, prompting the Bank of Indonesia to intervene to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision on interest rate cuts in September remains uncertain, which has driven the dollar to a two-month high, adversely affecting emerging market currencies [1][4]. - Powell's comments during the FOMC press conference did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, suggesting that current interest rates are appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4]. Group 2: Indonesian Central Bank's Actions - The Bank of Indonesia confirmed its intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupiah, which had depreciated by 0.4% to 16,460 per dollar, marking its lowest level in over a month [1][4]. - Erwin Hutapea, the Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia, stated that the central bank is using various tools, including spot transactions, non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF), and government bond purchases, to maintain the stability of the rupiah [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and other regional currencies, with concerns that strong U.S. economic performance may delay the Fed's rate cut timeline [5]. - The dollar index reached a two-month high, contributing to widespread pressure on Asian currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah [5].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 1.4320, influenced by upcoming tariff details from President Trump and mixed economic data from the US, indicating a divergence in the economic structure between services and manufacturing [1][3][8]. Economic Data Summary - The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in February, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024 [3]. - The Services PMI increased significantly from 51.0 to 54.3, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, while the Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8, below the expected 51.8 [3]. - The overall economic landscape in the US is characterized by strong services and weak manufacturing sectors [3]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment remains cautious regarding Trump's upcoming tariff announcements, with concerns that a broader range of tariffs could heighten global trade uncertainty [3][8]. - The potential for tariff exemptions for many countries has alleviated some concerns for Canadian businesses, contributing to the relative stability of the Canadian dollar [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD has been trading within a range of 1.4288 to 1.4400 since mid-March, with key moving averages indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [4][6]. - A breakout above 1.4333 could lead to testing the previous high of 1.4400, while a drop below 1.4307 would necessitate monitoring the support at 1.4288 [4][6][8]. - The four-hour chart suggests that if the price surpasses 1.4388, it may challenge the 1.4419 level, but failure to do so could result in continued range-bound trading [6][8].