2025年全年，印尼盾下跌约4%，位列亚洲表现最疲软的货币之一。 市场焦点现在转向将于下周公布的12月通胀数据，此前尽管通胀率维持在央行1.5%至3.5%的目标区间 内，但近期数据徘徊在18个月高位附近。 周五（1月2日）印尼盾走弱，印尼盾兑美元汇率报约16720印尼盾，为2026年首个交易日，逆转了此前 三个交易日的涨势。 在国内利率可能下调的预期重燃下，市场情绪承压，因印尼央行此前暗示，在通胀温和以及为支持11月 末苏门答腊灾害后的经济增长而采取行动的背景下，今年有进一步宽松的空间。 印尼央行在去年12月连续第三次会议将关键利率维持在4.75%不变，此前在2024年9月至2025年9月期间 累计降息150个基点。 全球方面，美元指数下跌至98.2附近，此前在2025年累计下跌9%，主要受到关税政策不确定性、美联 储降息预期以及财政担忧的压力。 ...

2025年市场波动中，新兴市场货币表现强劲，新兴市场外汇交易兴趣大增也成为亮点。而2026年美元疲 软趋势预计将持续，这将有利于新兴市场。对冲基金和银行外汇交易部门受益最大。 例如，作为长期以来在新兴市场中处于边缘地位的货币，匈牙利福林的交易量自美国总统特朗普于今年 1月上任以来已增长了一倍多。自他宣布大规模的"解放日"进口关税政策以来，交易者的兴趣更是与日 俱增。交易员、策略师和对冲基金表示，这些交易量的增加并非偶然现象;他们正在参与规模高达每天1 万亿美元的全球外汇市场交易。 今年，福林兑美元汇率已上涨约20%，创下近25年来最佳表现，成为2025年新兴货币表现最佳的货币之 一。从更广泛的层面来看，今年新兴市场货币的表现也相当不错：MSCI新兴市场货币指数在7月创下历 史新高，并有望实现自2017年以来的最佳年度表现，涨幅超过6%。接受机构调查的交易员、基金经理 和分析师大多预计这一趋势明年也将持续下去。 新兴市场货币表现强劲得益于美元波动性增强且持续走弱，这促使投资者重新审视对美元的投资敞口， 并对长期以来美元的强势和全球货币地位提出质疑。与此同时，他们正在押注一些发展中国家(从南非 到匈牙利)的经济价 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].

Core Points - Indonesia is prepared to engage in currency settlement with Russia, moving away from the use of the US dollar and opting for direct transactions in Indonesian Rupiah and Russian Ruble [1][3] - The trend of "de-dollarization" has gained momentum among emerging market countries, with Indonesia being one of the more proactive nations in this regard since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5] - Indonesia has already initiated currency settlement discussions with countries like China, Japan, and Thailand, and has been in multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia over the past three years [5][6] Group 1 - Indonesia's trade minister confirmed readiness for currency settlement with Russia, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [1] - The move is seen as a potential blow to the US, given Indonesia's status as Southeast Asia's largest economy and its projected GDP ranking [1] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization reflects a broader shift in global financial practices, particularly among emerging markets [3] Group 2 - Previous discussions on currency settlement between Indonesia and Russia date back to September 2022, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts [3] - Although the currency settlement mechanism has not yet been fully implemented, Indonesia's preparations suggest a strong likelihood of future agreements [5] - The implications of this shift could challenge the dominance of the US dollar in international trade [6]

Group 1 - Barclays analysts indicate that despite unusual negative events in recent months, the US dollar has remained stable within a narrow range, supported by expectations of an economic rebound in the coming months [1] - The Swiss National Bank has paused interest rate cuts but may consider lowering rates below zero in the future due to external pressures and economic outlook concerns [1] - Indonesia's central bank's recent unexpected rate cut is seen as a response to political pressure, which may negatively impact the Indonesian rupiah and fiscal credibility [2] Group 2 - Thailand's export growth has significantly slowed from 11% in July to 5.8% in August, indicating weakened export momentum following the implementation of US tariffs [2] - The Thai government's credit outlook has been downgraded to negative by Fitch due to rising public finance risks and ongoing political uncertainty [2] - Apollo Global Management highlights a significant rise in US inflation risks, with 72% of CPI components exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Group 1 - Political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to increasing protests in Indonesia and political instability in Thailand [1] - Indonesia's stock benchmark index fell by 1.5% last Friday, marking the largest decline among global country indices tracked by Bloomberg [1] - The Bank of Indonesia has hinted at stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah amid these challenges [1] Group 2 - Thailand's stock market also experienced a decline of 1.1% on the same day, making it one of the worst-performing markets [1] - The Thai baht weakened concurrently with the stock market downturn [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is driving up stock markets and currencies in emerging markets, with traders focusing on upcoming US data that may reinforce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Indonesian rupiah is leading gains among Asian currencies, while the Romanian leu and Czech koruna are performing well in the broader emerging markets due to upcoming US-Russia talks [1] - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Currency Index has seen a slight increase against the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Most Asian currencies are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index report for July, which is expected to provide new insights [1] - Federal Reserve officials have shifted to a dovish stance, with the market almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could support most Asian currencies except for Japan [1]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to significant volatility in the Asian foreign exchange market, prompting the Bank of Indonesia to intervene to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision on interest rate cuts in September remains uncertain, which has driven the dollar to a two-month high, adversely affecting emerging market currencies [1][4]. - Powell's comments during the FOMC press conference did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, suggesting that current interest rates are appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4]. Group 2: Indonesian Central Bank's Actions - The Bank of Indonesia confirmed its intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupiah, which had depreciated by 0.4% to 16,460 per dollar, marking its lowest level in over a month [1][4]. - Erwin Hutapea, the Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia, stated that the central bank is using various tools, including spot transactions, non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF), and government bond purchases, to maintain the stability of the rupiah [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and other regional currencies, with concerns that strong U.S. economic performance may delay the Fed's rate cut timeline [5]. - The dollar index reached a two-month high, contributing to widespread pressure on Asian currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah [5].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Indonesia aims to maintain the stability of the Indonesian rupiah and ensure inflation remains within the target range [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian central bank governor emphasized the commitment to stabilizing the currency [1] - The focus on controlling inflation aligns with the bank's monetary policy objectives [1]