据悉，早在2022年9月份，印尼驻俄罗斯大使何塞·塔瓦雷斯就曾在参加东方经济论坛期间，对外声称印尼正在和俄罗斯就本币贸易结算问题进行谈判。 根据俄新社10月3日报道，印度尼西亚贸易部长布迪・桑托索证实，该国已准备好与俄罗斯展开本币结算，即取消或是减少使用美元等货币，改为直接使 用印尼盾与俄罗斯卢布进行交易。 印尼作为东南亚第一大国，人口总量位居世界第四位，2024年GDP排名全球第十六位，俄罗斯若能与印尼落实本币结算机制，对于美国来说，无疑是个晴 天霹雳。 自2022年俄乌战争爆发，美西方国家对俄罗斯进行严厉金融制裁后，不仅是俄罗斯，全球多个新兴市场国家都出现了"去美元化"的趋势，印尼在这方面算 行动力较为积极的国家之一。 印尼在准备俄罗斯进行本币结算前，就已经开展了与中国、日本和泰国等国进行本币结算，伴随着两国贸易规模大幅增加，印尼也在过去3年里，与俄罗 斯进行了多轮协商与谈判。 美元虽然仍保持着「世界货币」的身份，欧元的价值也不赖，但从他们对待俄罗斯的违法操作来看，谁又能保障自己的下场，不会是第二个俄罗斯。 目前印尼和俄罗斯尚未真正落实本币结算机制，但是从最新的进程来看，既然印尼都已经做好了充足准备，想必 ...

转自：新华财经 【机构分析】 •巴克莱汇市策略师指出，过去几个月虽发生"异乎寻常的利空事件"，但美元并未延续2月至5月间的大 幅走软趋势，而是在相对窄幅区间内保持稳定。他们认为，市场预期美国经济将在未来几个月反弹，是 支撑美元韧性的关键因素。不过，该行也对美联储独立性面临的威胁表示谨慎，警惕潜在政策风险对美 元的长期影响。 •凯投宏观经济学家指出，尽管瑞士央行在9月25日暂停降息，将政策利率维持在0%不变，但未来仍有 可能将利率降至零以下。瑞士央行此次暂停降息是为应对美国高额贸易关税对经济增长的威胁，但在外 部压力持续、经济前景承压的背景下，瑞士央行对2025年通胀回升的预期可能被高估。随着实际经济数 据可能弱于预期，政策制定者或将被迫进一步放松货币政策。 •美国银行分析师指出，印尼央行上周意外降息，被视为屈从于总统推动增长的政治压力，其扩张性财 政政策与宽松货币政策的组合正对印尼盾构成"轻微负面影响"，并可能损害财政信誉。 •评级机构惠誉已将泰国主权信用展望由"稳定"下调至"负面"，主因公共财政风险上升与持续的政治不 确定性。 •杰富瑞指出，印度股市年初至今跑输亚洲同行，具备短期反弹基础。海外配置偏低但有望 ...

Group 1 - Political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to increasing protests in Indonesia and political instability in Thailand [1] - Indonesia's stock benchmark index fell by 1.5% last Friday, marking the largest decline among global country indices tracked by Bloomberg [1] - The Bank of Indonesia has hinted at stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah amid these challenges [1] Group 2 - Thailand's stock market also experienced a decline of 1.1% on the same day, making it one of the worst-performing markets [1] - The Thai baht weakened concurrently with the stock market downturn [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is driving up stock markets and currencies in emerging markets, with traders focusing on upcoming US data that may reinforce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Indonesian rupiah is leading gains among Asian currencies, while the Romanian leu and Czech koruna are performing well in the broader emerging markets due to upcoming US-Russia talks [1] - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Currency Index has seen a slight increase against the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Most Asian currencies are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index report for July, which is expected to provide new insights [1] - Federal Reserve officials have shifted to a dovish stance, with the market almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could support most Asian currencies except for Japan [1]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to significant volatility in the Asian foreign exchange market, prompting the Bank of Indonesia to intervene to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision on interest rate cuts in September remains uncertain, which has driven the dollar to a two-month high, adversely affecting emerging market currencies [1][4]. - Powell's comments during the FOMC press conference did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, suggesting that current interest rates are appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4]. Group 2: Indonesian Central Bank's Actions - The Bank of Indonesia confirmed its intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupiah, which had depreciated by 0.4% to 16,460 per dollar, marking its lowest level in over a month [1][4]. - Erwin Hutapea, the Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia, stated that the central bank is using various tools, including spot transactions, non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF), and government bond purchases, to maintain the stability of the rupiah [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and other regional currencies, with concerns that strong U.S. economic performance may delay the Fed's rate cut timeline [5]. - The dollar index reached a two-month high, contributing to widespread pressure on Asian currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah [5].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Indonesia aims to maintain the stability of the Indonesian rupiah and ensure inflation remains within the target range [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian central bank governor emphasized the commitment to stabilizing the currency [1] - The focus on controlling inflation aligns with the bank's monetary policy objectives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Rupiah has strengthened due to capital inflows and the central bank's stabilization measures [1] Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has implemented measures that have contributed to the stability of the Rupiah [1] - Increased capital inflows have positively impacted the currency's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia stated that measures will continue to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah in response to global fluctuations [1] Group 1 - The central bank is committed to implementing strategies to manage currency stability amid external economic pressures [1] - Ongoing global volatility has prompted the need for proactive measures to protect the value of the Rupiah [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has intervened in the spot market, offshore NDF market, and domestic NDF market to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate [1]