周五菲律宾比索跌至一周低点，亚洲多数其他区域货币在窄幅区间内波动，韩国与新加坡股票市场则飙 升至历史新高。 菲律宾比索下跌0.3%，创下2月12日以来的最低水平。此前菲律宾央行周四宣布降息25个基点，该举措 已基本被市场提前消化，并未立即引发市场波动。 不过，央行行长的表态令投资者保持谨慎，他称政策前景将取决于经济信心恢复的速度。 DBS银行高级经济学家Radhika Rao表示："菲律宾央行此次降息伴随谨慎指引，反映出经济复苏弱于预 期、信心指标走软以及政府支出延迟。" 本周迄今，比索已上涨0.4%，有望结束连续四周下跌的态势。 分析师还指出，油价上涨可能影响亚洲货币，尤其是菲律宾比索。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场亚洲宏观策略师Abbas Keshvani称："今年初以来，布伦特原油价格每桶已上 涨约10美元，这略微削弱了亚洲外汇的看涨前景。" "该区域多数主要经济体都是石油净进口国，尤其是泰国、印度、韩国和菲律宾，如果能源价格居高不 下，比索将面临更大的贬值压力。" 在亚洲其他市场，印尼盾早盘下跌0.2%，但很快收复跌幅，持平运行。 印尼与美国周五签署互惠贸易协议，美国对印尼出口商品征收的19%关税保持不变。 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

2026.01. 29 30年来最严重两日跌幅 1月29日，印尼股市进一步陷入动荡。MSCI对其市场投资可行性的警告引发了印度尼西亚股市近30 年来最严重的两日暴跌。 印尼基准雅加达综合指数今日上午交易时段一度暴跌10%，触发30分钟停牌。根据交易所规则，下 一次熔断机制将在跌幅达到15%时触发，届时交易将再次暂停30分钟。周三，雅加达综合指数盘中 也一度跌超8%，并触发熔断机制，市场交易暂停30分钟，最终收跌7.35%。印尼国有银行以及与大 型企业集团有关联公司的权重股都遭遇巨大的抛售压力。如果周四的跌势持续，印尼股指可能进入技 术性熊市。 此次暴跌的主要原因是MSCI对印尼股市的可投资性提出担忧。MSCI表示，将立即暂停部分指数调 整，并冻结新增成分股，直到印尼监管机构解决上市公司股权过度集中等问题。此前，MSCI提议收 紧对印尼股票自由流通股的定义，而自由流通股是基准权重的一个关键因素。MSCI也曾表示，考虑 采用印尼中央证券存管机构（KSEI）的数据作为替代数据源，以评估实际可交易股票。 MSCI在周三的声明中表示，许多投资者对依赖该数据集表示"严重担忧"。担忧的焦点在于印尼股市 自由流通股比例过低， ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Indonesia's Finance Minister and the Central Bank Governor focused on coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the exchange rate and financial markets amid the weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar, nearing 1:17000 [1] - The Finance Minister emphasized the importance of strengthening fiscal and economic fundamentals, while the Central Bank will take necessary measures to stabilize the Rupiah, highlighting that exchange rate stability falls under the Central Bank's responsibilities [1] - The Central Bank Governor noted that the Rupiah's performance is influenced by both global and domestic factors, including geopolitical tensions, US tariffs, high US Treasury yields, and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank plans to increase intervention efforts to stabilize the market and strengthen the Rupiah to reflect economic fundamentals, with expectations of good economic performance supported by domestic demand and government stimulus measures [1] - The Central Bank decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the fourth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, while projecting inflation to remain within the target range of 2.5%±1% in 2026 [1] - Since September 2024, the Central Bank has cut interest rates by a total of 150 basis points, bringing rates to the lowest level since October 2022, while maintaining GDP growth forecasts for 2025 between 4.7% and 5.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the Indonesian Rupiah faces further depreciation risks due to increased imports ahead of Ramadan, seasonal dividend repatriation, and ongoing fiscal concerns [1] Group 1 - Citigroup previously projected that the USD/IDR exchange rate would rise to 17,200 within the next six to twelve months [1] - The risk of the exchange rate surpassing this level has significantly increased according to strategists Rohit Garg and Gordon Goh [1]

Group 1 - Berenberg Bank's chief economist indicates that the U.S. government's attempt to forcibly purchase Greenland and threaten tariffs on eight countries has shattered market expectations for a tariff easing in 2026, potentially leading to a consumer price increase of up to 0.15% in the U.S. if the U.S.-EU tariff agreement is abolished [1] - Apex Securities analysts highlight Malaysia's strong domestic demand, predicting a solid economic growth support in 2026, with a GDP growth forecast of 4.3% driven by robust service sector performance, government tourism initiatives, and ongoing policy support [1] - Westpac Bank notes that tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland are exacerbating downward pressure on the dollar and reigniting discussions on "de-dollarization," emphasizing the geopolitical risks associated with the U.S.'s significant international net liabilities [2] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group warns that the Indonesian rupiah is under increasing depreciation pressure due to fiscal deficits nearing legal limits and weak tax revenues, predicting it may fall to 17,000 per dollar by Q1 2026 [3] - Barclays analysts forecast that the Indonesian rupiah could further decline to a historical low of 17,300 per dollar in 2026, reflecting deep market concerns over Indonesia's fiscal sustainability [3] - BlackRock reports that European institutional investors are accelerating their investments in private markets to navigate a new landscape characterized by increased volatility and changing stock-bond correlations, with EMEA clients contributing approximately 35% to BlackRock's global private fundraising in 2025, which surged over 50% year-on-year [3]

Group 1 - The core message from Goldman Sachs is that while the dominance of the US dollar is weakening, it is not collapsing yet, with a projected slow decline influenced by global growth and balanced asset returns [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will experience a "slow downward process," driven by strong global growth, despite the dollar being overvalued by approximately 15% according to their GSDEER model [1][2] - The report highlights that the most significant risks to the dollar's value may arise from structural changes in capital markets rather than traditional macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the euro is that it is nearing "fair value" against the dollar, with further appreciation likely driven by the dollar's weakness rather than explosive growth in the Eurozone [3] - The British pound is identified as a "laggard" among G10 currencies, facing structural overvaluation and lacking fundamental support due to pressures from fiscal tightening and a weak domestic economic outlook [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market expects, which will negatively impact the pound's performance compared to its European counterparts [3] Group 3 - In Asia, Goldman Sachs sees opportunities in low-yield currencies closely tied to the technology supply chain, such as the South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, which are expected to outperform higher-yield currencies like the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso [5] - The South Korean won is particularly favored due to expected inflows from the inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the resumption of foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [5] - For emerging markets, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations, such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which offer significant carry trade potential despite political uncertainties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian central bank is intervening in the foreign exchange market due to ongoing concerns about the country's fiscal health, which has led the Indonesian rupiah to approach historical lows [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank is actively taking measures in the market to ensure that the exchange rate fluctuates in line with fundamentals and healthy market mechanisms [1] - The central bank's executive director, Erwin Hutahepy, emphasized the commitment to optimizing market-oriented monetary policy tools to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and maintain adequate liquidity [1] Group 2: Currency Performance - The Indonesian rupiah is currently only about 0.5% away from the historical low reached in April of the previous year [1] - Concerns regarding Indonesia's fiscal health have resurfaced, contributing to the pressure on the currency [1]

Group 1 - HSBC expresses a positive outlook on Chinese assets, recommending investors to increase holdings in mainland China and Hong Kong stocks by 2026 and to establish long positions in the renminbi [1] - The bank suggests a shift in investment focus towards assets supported by domestic demand amid potential market volatility, particularly favoring stocks in China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia [2] - HSBC advises selling Swiss francs and buying offshore renminbi, anticipating a gradual appreciation of the renminbi due to China's industrial upgrades and technological self-sufficiency [1][3] Group 2 - HSBC recommends an overweight position in stocks from mainland China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia, while advising a reduction in exposure to the crowded South Korean market due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven growth [2] - The bank highlights the potential for interest rate cuts by some Asian central banks to support local stock markets, although the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit this space [4] - In the fixed income sector, HSBC favors a curve steepening strategy and is optimistic about bonds from India and the Philippines, while being cautious about Thailand and Indonesia [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian rupiah weakened against the US dollar, reversing a three-day upward trend, amid expectations of potential domestic interest rate cuts by the central bank [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On January 2, the exchange rate for the Indonesian rupiah was approximately 16,720 rupiah per US dollar, marking a decline after a period of appreciation [1] - The rupiah depreciated about 4% throughout 2025, making it one of the weakest currencies in Asia [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Indonesia maintained the key interest rate at 4.75% during its third consecutive meeting in December, following a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points from September 2024 to September 2025 [1] - There is potential for further monetary easing this year, as indicated by the central bank, in response to moderate inflation and the need to support economic growth following disasters in Sumatra [1] Group 3: Inflation and Market Sentiment - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming December inflation data, which, despite remaining within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%, has recently hovered near an 18-month high [1] - The global dollar index fell to around 98.2, reflecting a 9% decline over 2025, influenced by uncertainties in tariff policies, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and fiscal concerns [1]