2025.09. 26 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四收盘小幅下跌，经济数据加剧了美联储未来降息路径的不确定性，主要股指连续三个交 易日收跌。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌173.96点，收于45947.32点，跌幅0.38%；标准普尔500指数 下跌33.25点，收于6604.72点，跌幅0.50%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌113.16点，收于22384.70 点，跌幅0.50%。 标普500指数多数板块收低，仅能源板块上涨0.9%，科技板块微涨0.03%。 大型科技股表现分化。特斯拉下跌4.38%，Meta跌1.54%，亚马逊、微软、谷歌A至多跌0.94%，英 伟达逆势上涨0.41%，苹果上涨1.81%。 英特尔大涨8.9%，此前有消息称该公司正与台积电接触，探讨投资生产或合作事宜。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.42%。其中，金山云涨超6%，蔚来、小鹏汽 车、哔哩哔哩涨逾4%，百度、理想汽车涨超1%，阿里巴巴跌0.55%。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截至9月20日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.4万人，经季调后为21.8万 人，显示劳动力市场仍具一定韧性。与此同时，美国经济分析局 ...

Core Insights - iQIYI reported total revenue of 6.63 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing an 11% year-over-year decline [1] - The company experienced a net loss attributable to iQIYI of 133.7 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 68.7 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - On a non-GAAP basis, the net profit attributable to iQIYI was 147 million yuan, down from 246.9 million yuan in the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, with 84% of companies reporting earnings per share (EPS) above forecasts and 79% exceeding revenue expectations, marking the strongest revenue surprises in four years [1][5] - The earnings reports have surpassed the low thresholds set prior to the season, with 60% of companies' EPS exceeding consensus expectations by more than one standard deviation, compared to a historical average of 48% [5] - The overall profit margins of the S&P 500 continue to rise, even when excluding the technology sector [9] Group 2 - The EPS revision ratio has reached 1.4, the highest in three years, indicating that for every 10 downward revisions, there are 14 upward revisions [11] - The S&P 500 has consistently led global EPS revisions over the past 10 weeks, outperforming global EPS 74% of the time over the last five years [13] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could contribute a positive 4% to EPS, while a 10% tariff rate would result in a negative impact of 3% [16] Group 3 - There is a clear divergence in performance among sectors, with the communication and technology sectors exceeding both EPS and revenue expectations, while materials and consumer sectors lag behind [17] - Sectors sensitive to interest rates continue to underperform as the market awaits potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [19] - Corporate vitality is on the rise, with S&P 500 per capita income reaching a new high, capital expenditure to sales ratios increasing, and leverage ratios declining to their lowest since 2014 [25] Group 4 - SocGen maintains an optimistic outlook for the S&P 500, projecting a range of 5500 to 6750, with caution advised only if the index surpasses 7500, indicating potential bubble risks [40]