哔哩哔哩 [Table_StockNameRptType] -W（09626） 港股公司点评 广告收入健康增长，利润持续释放 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-11-27 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 208.40 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）249.6/113.6 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 421 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 340 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.0 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 877 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 709 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -26% 1% 27% 54% 80% 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 哔哩哔哩-W 恒生指数 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：赵浦轩 执业证书号：S0010525100002 邮箱：zhaopuxuan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Ta ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that Bilibili-W (09626.HK) experienced accelerated growth in advertising revenue for Q3, with adjusted EPADS exceeding expectations due to operational leverage effects [1] - The company's Q3 revenue was 7.7 billion RMB, representing a 5% year-over-year increase, which was 1% and 0% higher than Goldman Sachs and market forecasts respectively [1] - Non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share were 1.73 RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs and market predictions by 14% and 17% respectively [1] - The stock maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 234 HKD [1] Financial Performance - Bilibili-W's market capitalization is 88.03 billion HKD, ranking 5th in the internet media industry [2] - Key financial metrics include: - Return on Equity (ROE): 1.82%, compared to the industry average of -9.35% [2] - Revenue: 29.381 billion RMB, higher than the industry average of 18.783 billion RMB [2] - Net Profit Margin: 1.45%, while the industry average is -17.09% [2] - Gross Margin: 36.36%, compared to the industry average of 43.76% [2] - Debt Ratio: 63.51%, against the industry average of 53.63% [2] Analyst Ratings - Over the past 90 days, 10 investment banks have issued "Buy" ratings for Bilibili-W, with an average target price of 230.17 HKD [1] - Notable ratings include: - Huatai Securities: Buy with a target price of 316.50 HKD [1] - CICC: Outperform rating with a target price of 204.00 HKD [1] - Other firms have set target prices ranging from 203.00 HKD to 234.34 HKD [1]

Core Insights - Bilibili reported total net revenue of 7.69 billion yuan (approximately 1.08 billion USD) for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [6] - The company achieved a net profit of 469.4 million yuan (approximately 65.9 million USD), compared to a net loss of 79.8 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [14] - Adjusted net profit, not in accordance with US GAAP, was 786.3 million yuan (approximately 110.5 million USD), marking a significant year-on-year increase of 233% [15] Financial Performance - Total net revenue for Q3 2025 was 7.69 billion yuan (approximately 1.08 billion USD), with revenue from value-added services at 3.02 billion yuan (approximately 424.6 million USD), up 7% year-on-year [6] - Advertising revenue reached 2.57 billion yuan (approximately 361 million USD), a 23% increase year-on-year, attributed to improved advertising products and efficiency [6] - Mobile gaming revenue was 1.51 billion yuan (approximately 212.2 million USD), down 17% year-on-year due to a high comparison base from the previous year [6] - Revenue from IP derivatives and other businesses was 582.3 million yuan (approximately 81.8 million USD), reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [7] User Engagement - Average daily active users (DAU) for Q3 2025 reached 117.3 million, a 9% increase year-on-year [2] - Monthly active users (MAU) stood at 376 million, representing an 8% year-on-year growth [3] - The number of monthly paying users was 35 million, up 17% year-on-year [4] - Users spent an average of 112 minutes per day on the platform, a historical high, increasing by 6 minutes compared to the same period last year [5] Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenue was 4.87 billion yuan (approximately 683.7 million USD), a 2% increase year-on-year, primarily due to higher revenue-sharing costs [8] - Total operating expenses were 2.46 billion yuan (approximately 346.1 million USD), down 6% year-on-year [10] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 13% year-on-year to 1.05 billion yuan (approximately 147.6 million USD) due to reduced mobile game marketing spending [10] Profitability - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was 353.9 million yuan (approximately 49.7 million USD), compared to an operating loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [12] - Adjusted operating profit, not in accordance with US GAAP, was 687.9 million yuan (approximately 96.6 million USD), a 153% year-on-year increase [12] Cash Flow and Share Buyback - Net cash provided by operating activities was 2.02 billion yuan (approximately 283.2 million USD), compared to 2.23 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [16] - As of September 30, 2025, Bilibili held cash and cash equivalents totaling 23.49 billion yuan (approximately 3.30 billion USD) [17] - The company repurchased 6.4 million shares at a total cost of 116.4 million USD under a two-year share buyback plan approved in November 2024 [18]

Group 1 - The mobile game "Football Tycoon" by 37 Interactive Entertainment will begin limited testing on October 24, with pre-download available from the same date [1] - The game aims to expand the company's global product matrix, leveraging the popularity of football as a universal sport [1] - The integration of AI technology in the game's development could enhance cost efficiency and validate the commercial value of "AI + gaming" [1] Group 2 - Bilibili's mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" is hosting a national listening event in Qingdao, allowing players to engage directly with game developers [2] - This initiative aims to create a co-creation ecosystem between players and the official team, enhancing the game's competitive edge in a crowded market [2] - The event is expected to improve Bilibili's brand and reputation in game publishing, positively impacting the valuation of its gaming business in the long term [2] Group 3 - Chuangmeng Tiandi's mobile game "Kara Bichu" has surpassed 10 million pre-registrations, unlocking all promised rewards [3] - The upcoming public test on October 23 is anticipated to boost market confidence and potentially increase the company's stock price [3] - The positive sentiment in the gaming sector and strengthened performance expectations may attract more investor interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626) shares rose nearly 5%, reaching 216 HKD, with a trading volume of 731 million HKD, following the approval of 156 games by the National Press and Publication Administration, indicating a positive trend in the gaming industry [1] Industry Summary - The recent approval of 156 games, including 145 domestic and 11 imported, marks the third month this year with over 150 game licenses issued, suggesting a robust recovery in the gaming sector [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the current valuation of the gaming sector remains attractive, and it is recommended to increase investments in this area while monitoring the performance of key new and evergreen games [1] Company Summary - Bilibili's mobile gaming revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [1] - In Q2 2025, Bilibili's gaming business generated 1.61 billion CNY, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the strong performance of "Three Kingdoms" [1] - The company is currently testing a mini-game version of "Three Kingdoms" and plans to launch an international version in the second half of 2025, with 4 to 5 games awaiting approval, including a casual game based on the Three Kingdoms IP [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626) shares rose nearly 5%, reaching 216 HKD, with a trading volume of 731 million HKD, following the approval of 156 games by the National Press and Publication Administration, indicating a positive trend in the gaming industry [1] Industry Summary - The recent approval of 156 games, including 145 domestic and 11 imported titles, marks the third month this year with over 150 game licenses issued, suggesting a robust recovery in the gaming sector [1] - According to Open Source Securities, the current gaming industry cycle may exceed market expectations due to supply-demand resonance, and the sector's valuation remains attractive [1] Company Summary - Bilibili's mobile gaming revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [1] - The company's evergreen titles, "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane," continue to perform steadily [1] - In Q2 2025, Bilibili's gaming business generated 1.61 billion CNY, a 60% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the strong performance of "Three Kingdoms" [1] - Bilibili is currently piloting a mini-game version of "Three Kingdoms" and plans to launch an international version in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company has 4 to 5 games awaiting approval, including a casual game based on the Three Kingdoms IP [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by advertising and live streaming services [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Bilibili reported revenue of 7.34 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 19.8%, slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 560 million CNY, compared to a net loss of 270 million CNY in the same period last year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 7.5% [1] - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue to reach 7.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 21% [1] Group 2: Advertising Revenue - Q2 2025 advertising revenue was 2.45 billion CNY, up 20.2% year-over-year, and also above Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include participation in the "潮流起飞" project, improved ad distribution efficiency through multimodal models, and AI-generated ad covers enhancing ECPM [1] - The company expects Q3 2025 advertising revenue to reach 2.5 billion CNY, maintaining strong growth due to potential expansion across multiple screens and scenarios [1] Group 3: Live Streaming and VAS Revenue - Live streaming and VAS revenue in Q2 2025 was 2.84 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 11%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.3% [2] - The growth is primarily driven by the charging business, with expectations for Q3 2025 revenue to reach 3.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% [2] Group 4: Gaming Revenue - Q2 2025 gaming revenue was 1.61 billion CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 60%, although slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 0.2% [2] - Due to a high base from last year's game releases, gaming revenue is expected to decline in Q3 2025 to 1.5 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 15% [2] - New game releases are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in 2026, with titles like "三国卡牌" and "嘟嘟脸恶作剧" expected to launch by year-end [2] Group 5: Revenue Forecast - The company projects revenues of 30.1 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 34.8 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, adjusting previous forecasts due to advertising expansion and revised sales expense predictions [2] - The target price is set at 211.53 HKD (193.06 CNY), based on a comparable company PS average of 2.7x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 7.338 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.8% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 561 million yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 36.5%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 2 - Mobile game revenue reached 1.61 billion yuan, in line with expectations, and grew by 60% year-over-year [1] - Value-added services revenue was 2.84 billion yuan, also meeting expectations, with an 11% year-over-year increase [1] - Advertising revenue exceeded expectations at 2.45 billion yuan compared to the consensus of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth [1] Group 3 - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" has been operating steadily for one year, contributing positively to the company's gaming business [1] - The anniversaries of "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane" have boosted player engagement, with expectations for increased revenue from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" upon its overseas launch in Q4 [1] - The company is continuously improving its product portfolio, with several upcoming games expected to pass approval for launch [1] Group 4 - The company reported a healthy growth in core users, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 108 million, up 6% year-over-year [2] - Monthly active users (MAU) reached 365 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [2] - The average daily usage time per user increased by 3.9% to 106 minutes, and the number of monthly paying users reached 32 million, up 10% year-over-year [2] Group 5 - The company’s advertising business saw a customer base growth of over 20% year-over-year, with increased advertising budgets [2] - The top five advertising categories were games, digital appliances, online services, e-commerce, and automotive [2] Group 6 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 30.08 billion yuan, 33.12 billion yuan, and 36.15 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.11 billion yuan, 2.96 billion yuan, and 3.89 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The recent discussions among players have shifted from gameplay mechanics to character aesthetics, indicating a growing emphasis on visual appeal in gaming [2] - The new character designs in the game have faced significant criticism, with players expressing dissatisfaction over the aesthetics and coherence of the designs [4] - The contrast between the criticized character designs and the successful art direction in other games highlights the importance of design serving gameplay [6] Group 2 - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" emphasizes social interaction, allowing players to collaborate and share strategies, enhancing the overall gaming experience [8] - The game is particularly welcoming to new players, offering generous rewards and support to help them progress quickly [10] - The focus on both aesthetic quality and gameplay functionality in "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" presents a balanced approach that appeals to players seeking both visual and strategic depth [12]

Core Insights - Bilibili (B站) reported a net revenue of 14.34 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [2][3] - The company achieved a net profit of 207.6 million RMB and an adjusted net profit of 922.8 million RMB, both showing a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2][3] - Approximately 2 million content creators (UP主) earned income on the platform in the first half of the year, with an average income growth of 20% year-on-year [12] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Bilibili's net revenue reached 7.34 billion RMB, a 20% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit for Q2 was 2.68 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 36.5%, up from 29.9% in the same period last year, marking 12 consecutive quarters of improvement [5][4] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 561 million RMB, compared to an adjusted net loss of 271 million RMB in the previous year [4] User Engagement - Daily active users reached a record high of 109 million in Q2, a 7% increase year-on-year, with an average daily usage time of 105 minutes [7] - Monthly active users were 363 million, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, and the number of paying users exceeded 31 million [7] Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q2 was 2.45 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year, driven by enhanced advertising efficiency through AI integration [7] - Mobile game service revenue grew by 60% year-on-year to 1.61 billion RMB, attributed to strong performance from exclusive games [9] - Value-added services revenue reached 2.84 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-on-year, with stable growth in live streaming and paid membership services [11] Community and Content Creation - The company emphasized its focus on user-generated content (PUGV), stating that it can leverage its high-quality content to train AI for video creation [12][18] - Bilibili World and Bilibili Macro Link events attracted over 400,000 participants, a 60% increase from the previous year, highlighting the growing influence among the "Z+ generation" [13]