Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626) shares rose nearly 5%, reaching 216 HKD, with a trading volume of 731 million HKD, following the approval of 156 games by the National Press and Publication Administration, indicating a positive trend in the gaming industry [1] Industry Summary - The recent approval of 156 games, including 145 domestic and 11 imported, marks the third month this year with over 150 game licenses issued, suggesting a robust recovery in the gaming sector [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the current valuation of the gaming sector remains attractive, and it is recommended to increase investments in this area while monitoring the performance of key new and evergreen games [1] Company Summary - Bilibili's mobile gaming revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [1] - In Q2 2025, Bilibili's gaming business generated 1.61 billion CNY, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the strong performance of "Three Kingdoms" [1] - The company is currently testing a mini-game version of "Three Kingdoms" and plans to launch an international version in the second half of 2025, with 4 to 5 games awaiting approval, including a casual game based on the Three Kingdoms IP [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626) shares rose nearly 5%, reaching 216 HKD, with a trading volume of 731 million HKD, following the approval of 156 games by the National Press and Publication Administration, indicating a positive trend in the gaming industry [1] Industry Summary - The recent approval of 156 games, including 145 domestic and 11 imported titles, marks the third month this year with over 150 game licenses issued, suggesting a robust recovery in the gaming sector [1] - According to Open Source Securities, the current gaming industry cycle may exceed market expectations due to supply-demand resonance, and the sector's valuation remains attractive [1] Company Summary - Bilibili's mobile gaming revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [1] - The company's evergreen titles, "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane," continue to perform steadily [1] - In Q2 2025, Bilibili's gaming business generated 1.61 billion CNY, a 60% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the strong performance of "Three Kingdoms" [1] - Bilibili is currently piloting a mini-game version of "Three Kingdoms" and plans to launch an international version in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company has 4 to 5 games awaiting approval, including a casual game based on the Three Kingdoms IP [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by advertising and live streaming services [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Bilibili reported revenue of 7.34 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 19.8%, slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 560 million CNY, compared to a net loss of 270 million CNY in the same period last year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 7.5% [1] - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue to reach 7.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 21% [1] Group 2: Advertising Revenue - Q2 2025 advertising revenue was 2.45 billion CNY, up 20.2% year-over-year, and also above Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include participation in the "潮流起飞" project, improved ad distribution efficiency through multimodal models, and AI-generated ad covers enhancing ECPM [1] - The company expects Q3 2025 advertising revenue to reach 2.5 billion CNY, maintaining strong growth due to potential expansion across multiple screens and scenarios [1] Group 3: Live Streaming and VAS Revenue - Live streaming and VAS revenue in Q2 2025 was 2.84 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 11%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.3% [2] - The growth is primarily driven by the charging business, with expectations for Q3 2025 revenue to reach 3.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% [2] Group 4: Gaming Revenue - Q2 2025 gaming revenue was 1.61 billion CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 60%, although slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 0.2% [2] - Due to a high base from last year's game releases, gaming revenue is expected to decline in Q3 2025 to 1.5 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 15% [2] - New game releases are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in 2026, with titles like "三国卡牌" and "嘟嘟脸恶作剧" expected to launch by year-end [2] Group 5: Revenue Forecast - The company projects revenues of 30.1 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 34.8 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, adjusting previous forecasts due to advertising expansion and revised sales expense predictions [2] - The target price is set at 211.53 HKD (193.06 CNY), based on a comparable company PS average of 2.7x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 7.338 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.8% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 561 million yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 36.5%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 2 - Mobile game revenue reached 1.61 billion yuan, in line with expectations, and grew by 60% year-over-year [1] - Value-added services revenue was 2.84 billion yuan, also meeting expectations, with an 11% year-over-year increase [1] - Advertising revenue exceeded expectations at 2.45 billion yuan compared to the consensus of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth [1] Group 3 - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" has been operating steadily for one year, contributing positively to the company's gaming business [1] - The anniversaries of "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane" have boosted player engagement, with expectations for increased revenue from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" upon its overseas launch in Q4 [1] - The company is continuously improving its product portfolio, with several upcoming games expected to pass approval for launch [1] Group 4 - The company reported a healthy growth in core users, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 108 million, up 6% year-over-year [2] - Monthly active users (MAU) reached 365 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [2] - The average daily usage time per user increased by 3.9% to 106 minutes, and the number of monthly paying users reached 32 million, up 10% year-over-year [2] Group 5 - The company’s advertising business saw a customer base growth of over 20% year-over-year, with increased advertising budgets [2] - The top five advertising categories were games, digital appliances, online services, e-commerce, and automotive [2] Group 6 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 30.08 billion yuan, 33.12 billion yuan, and 36.15 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.11 billion yuan, 2.96 billion yuan, and 3.89 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The recent discussions among players have shifted from gameplay mechanics to character aesthetics, indicating a growing emphasis on visual appeal in gaming [2] - The new character designs in the game have faced significant criticism, with players expressing dissatisfaction over the aesthetics and coherence of the designs [4] - The contrast between the criticized character designs and the successful art direction in other games highlights the importance of design serving gameplay [6] Group 2 - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" emphasizes social interaction, allowing players to collaborate and share strategies, enhancing the overall gaming experience [8] - The game is particularly welcoming to new players, offering generous rewards and support to help them progress quickly [10] - The focus on both aesthetic quality and gameplay functionality in "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" presents a balanced approach that appeals to players seeking both visual and strategic depth [12]

Core Insights - Bilibili (B站) reported a net revenue of 14.34 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [2][3] - The company achieved a net profit of 207.6 million RMB and an adjusted net profit of 922.8 million RMB, both showing a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2][3] - Approximately 2 million content creators (UP主) earned income on the platform in the first half of the year, with an average income growth of 20% year-on-year [12] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Bilibili's net revenue reached 7.34 billion RMB, a 20% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit for Q2 was 2.68 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 36.5%, up from 29.9% in the same period last year, marking 12 consecutive quarters of improvement [5][4] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 561 million RMB, compared to an adjusted net loss of 271 million RMB in the previous year [4] User Engagement - Daily active users reached a record high of 109 million in Q2, a 7% increase year-on-year, with an average daily usage time of 105 minutes [7] - Monthly active users were 363 million, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, and the number of paying users exceeded 31 million [7] Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q2 was 2.45 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year, driven by enhanced advertising efficiency through AI integration [7] - Mobile game service revenue grew by 60% year-on-year to 1.61 billion RMB, attributed to strong performance from exclusive games [9] - Value-added services revenue reached 2.84 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-on-year, with stable growth in live streaming and paid membership services [11] Community and Content Creation - The company emphasized its focus on user-generated content (PUGV), stating that it can leverage its high-quality content to train AI for video creation [12][18] - Bilibili World and Bilibili Macro Link events attracted over 400,000 participants, a 60% increase from the previous year, highlighting the growing influence among the "Z+ generation" [13]

Core Insights - Bilibili (B站) reported a total revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for Q2 2025, marking a 20% year-over-year increase [1] - The company achieved a historical high in both net profit and adjusted net profit, reaching 220 million RMB and 560 million RMB respectively [1] - Bilibili's CEO emphasized the importance of high-quality content in driving the platform's unique community ecosystem and commercial growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2, Bilibili's revenue sources included 39% from value-added services, 33% from advertising, 22% from gaming, and 6% from IP derivatives and other businesses [2] - Advertising revenue for Q2 was 2.45 billion RMB, also reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth, with brand advertising and performance advertising growing by approximately 30% [2] - Gaming revenue reached 1.61 billion RMB, showing a significant 60% year-over-year increase, driven by long-term operational strategies [3] User Engagement - Bilibili's daily active users reached 109 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, while monthly active users hit 363 million, up 8% [1] - The average daily usage time per user was 105 minutes, which is 6 minutes longer than the same period last year [1] - The number of monthly paying users grew by 9% to 31 million [1] Creator Monetization - Approximately 2 million content creators (UP主) earned income through various channels, with significant growth in revenue from advertising and live streaming [2] - The number of UP主 earning from merchandise sales increased by 49% year-over-year, while total income from charging exceeded a 100% increase [2] Financial Performance - Bilibili's gross profit rose by 46% year-over-year, with gross margin improving to 36.5%, up from 29.9% a year earlier [3] - The company generated 1.99 billion RMB in positive operating cash flow and completed a stock buyback of approximately 100 million USD [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Bilibili held cash and cash equivalents totaling 22.29 billion RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili, with a target price adjusted to HKD 237 [6][13]. Core Insights - Bilibili is positioned as a leading online video and content community platform in China, focusing on enriching the daily lives of the younger generation. The company has shown significant user growth and accelerated commercialization, with a notable operating leverage [3][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 22,528 million in 2023 to RMB 36,484 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.2% [5]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to turn from a loss of RMB 3,425 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 4,210 million by 2027, indicating a substantial recovery and growth trajectory [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to improve from -15.2% in 2023 to 11.5% in 2027 [5]. User Growth and Engagement - As of Q1 2025, Bilibili has 368 million monthly active users (MAU) and 107 million daily active users (DAU), with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [10][17]. - The platform has a strong user base among the Z+ generation, with 70% of this demographic being Bilibili users [10][27]. Community and Content Ecosystem - Bilibili's user engagement is driven by a high level of interaction, with a monthly average of 16.7 billion interactions and a stable growth in paid memberships, reaching 26.4 million by Q1 2025 [40][41]. - The platform's content is primarily user-generated (PUGV), which constitutes 95% of the viewing volume, showcasing a vibrant creator ecosystem [30][38]. Commercialization and Revenue Streams - The report highlights the acceleration of Bilibili's commercialization efforts, with significant growth in gaming, value-added services, advertising, and IP derivatives [10][19]. - The advertising revenue has shown a 30% year-on-year increase, with over 35% more advertisers on the platform compared to the previous year [10][19]. Management and Corporate Structure - Bilibili's management team holds over 70% voting rights, ensuring strong control over corporate decisions. Key figures include Chairman and CEO Chen Rui, who has over 20 years of experience in the internet and technology sectors [22][24]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major players like Tencent and Alibaba, enhancing its content and operational capabilities [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 7.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and an adjusted net profit of 363 million yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate [8] - User traffic reached new highs, with daily active users (DAU) at 107 million and monthly active users (MAU) at 368 million, along with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [8] - The company's gross margin improved for the 11th consecutive quarter, reaching 36.3%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin business revenue and the dilution of fixed costs [8] - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year to 1.998 billion yuan, with strong growth in performance-based advertising exceeding 30% [8] - Mobile game revenue increased by 76% year-on-year to 1.731 billion yuan, primarily due to contributions from the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [8] Financial Projections - The company expects adjusted net profits of 1.935 billion yuan, 3.027 billion yuan, and 4.201 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the current stock price are projected to be 29, 18, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing a "two extremes" situation, with top companies achieving record growth while mid-sized firms face declines and losses, leading to intensified competition and market concentration [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The top ten gaming companies in China are seeing significant shifts in their rankings, with the revenue threshold for entering the top ten increasing from 40 billion yuan in 2022 to 47 billion yuan in 2024 [2][9]. - Tencent and NetEase dominate the market, accounting for over 80% of the top ten's revenue, with Tencent's gaming revenue reaching 1,977 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The overall gaming industry revenue, including domestic and overseas markets, is estimated at around 4,500 billion yuan, with the top ten companies contributing nearly 80% of this total [4][9]. Group 2: Company Performance - Tencent's gaming business has rebounded strongly, with a notable increase in revenue driven by both long-standing games and new releases, achieving a quarterly revenue peak of 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - NetEase's gaming revenue for 2024 was 836 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 2.5%, facing challenges in maintaining its dual-hit strategy due to a lack of new blockbuster games [7][8]. - Century Huatong's revenue surged by 70.3% to 226.2 billion yuan, largely due to the success of its hit game "Whiteout Survival" [3][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, making it harder for smaller companies to compete, while opportunities still exist for mid-sized firms to create hit games [9][11]. - Companies like Bilibili and Kingsoft have made significant gains by launching successful titles, with Bilibili's gaming revenue growing by 40% to 56.1 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. - The decline of previously strong companies like Perfect World, which reported a net loss of 12.88 billion yuan in 2024, highlights the challenges of strategic misalignment and market competition [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The gaming industry is shifting from broad expansion to a focus on quality and innovation, with companies needing to either leverage resources to build ecosystems or specialize in niche markets to survive [13][14].