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蛋白数据日报-20250515
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 13:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA May Supply and Demand Report has a bullish impact, with the estimated US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.68%, continuing to decline from the 24/25 season. China and the US issued a joint statement, and China's import tax rate on US soybeans has changed. The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, which is relatively fast compared to recent years. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to the potential for further decline. Domestically, facing the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the customs clearance time has been shortened. This week, soybean meal inventory continued to decline slightly but remains low. Overall, there is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting, and the domestic market continues to digest the pressure of spot supply and the bearish impact of Brazilian soybean sales. The futures market is expected to be range-bound [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on May 14th: Dalian was 226 with a change of -38; Tianjin was 166 with a change of -48; Rizhao was 86 with a change of -28; Zhangjiagang was 186 with a change of -28; Dongguan was 166 with a change of -28; Zhanjiang was 186 with a change of -28; Fangcheng was 246 with a change of 12. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was -149 with a change of -12 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The spot spread in Guangdong was 405 with a change of 6, and the spread on the main futures contract was 720 with a change of -10. Other spreads such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1 also have corresponding data [4] 3.3 Premium and Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1598, and the soybean CNF premium had a corresponding trend chart. The import soybean futures gross profit and the futures crushing profit per ton also had corresponding data [4] 3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory data of major oil mills and ports in China, including soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises, all have corresponding time - series data [4] 3.5 Startup and Pressing Data - The startup rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills in China have corresponding time - series data [4]