Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - China's purchasing demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the unilateral and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new crop's discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between M103 and M105 is expected to be in a positive spread situation, with the risk point being the release of domestic reserves [8] - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month [8] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions on November 28: Dalian was 96 with a change of 21; Tianjin was 56 with a change of 21; Rizhao was - 24 with a change of - 9; Zhangjiagang was - 14 with a change of 11; Dongguan was - 44 with a change of 11; Zhanjiang was - 24 with a change of 31; Fangcheng was - 44 with a change of 11. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 84 with a change of 121 [4] Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 37 with a change of - 18. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: the spot spread in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 592 with a change of 6. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market was 435 with a change of - 127 [5] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September [7] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 78% (last week was 60%, and the same period last year was 83.3%, with a five - year average of 75.8%). According to BACE, as of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 36% (last week was 24.6%, and the same period last year was 45%) [7] Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good提货 performance [8] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Others - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0420. The Brazilian import soybean's on - disk crushing profit was 240 yuan/ton with a change of - 181.00, and the on - disk gross profit of imported soybeans in 2025 was 195 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - China's purchasing demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. Weather speculation will be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a Brazilian bumper harvest, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The 103 - 105 spread is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 28th, the basis in Dalian was 96 (up 21), in Tianjin was 56 (up 21), in Rizhao was - 24 (down 9), in Zhangjiagang was - 14 (up 11), in Dongguan was - 44 (up 11), in Zhanjiang was - 24 (up 31), and in Fangcheng was - 44 (up 11) [4] - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong on November 28th, it was 84 (up 121), and MJ - 5 was 199 (down 18) [4] - **Spread Data**: RM1 - 5 was 37 (down 18), the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the main - contract spread was 592 (up 6). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 435 (down 127) [5] 3.2 Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The 2025 imported soybean's on - paper gross profit per ton was given, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.0420. The on - paper crushing profit per ton was - 181.00 yuan, with a 240 - cent (per bushel) change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium showed different values for each month [5] - **Inventory Data**: Included China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, with data spanning from 2020 - 2025 [5][6] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is 1.776 billion tons. As of November 22nd, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78% (last week 60%, last year's same period 83.3%, five - year average 75.8%). As of November 26th, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week 24.6%, last year's same period 45%). Short - term weather has no obvious drought problem, but the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December needs attention. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock, and the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, requiring attention to reserve release [7][8] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, with no obvious capacity reduction, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good pick - up performance [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January. Pay attention to the trend of new - crop discounts, which is expected to drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian on November 21st was 78, down 5. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different values and changes [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong decreased by 101. There were also data on spreads such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5] Supply - related Data - According to CONA data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (last week: 88.4%, same period last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 15% (last week: 7%, same period last year: 25%) [6] - The shipping purchase progress for December - January 2025 is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will be destocked from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be relatively loose [6] Demand - related Data - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased recently with good提货 performance [7] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history and are expected to be destocked from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7] Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0713, and the futures crushing margin was - 50.00 yuan/ton. There were also data on soybean CNF premiums in Brazil in different months, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, port soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, soybean crushing volume, and oil mill operating rate [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean yield, exports, and ending stocks in 2025/26, with less - than - expected bullish effects. Brazil's new soybean production is forecasted to reach 1.776 billion tons. As of November 15, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 69.0%, and Argentina's was 15% as of November 13. Attention should be paid to dry weather in some regions and the influence of the weak La Niña pattern. Domestic soybean meal is expected to destock from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter remains loose. The supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to policy changes between China, Canada, and Australia. The global rapeseed production is expected to increase in 2025/26 [5]. - Demand: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and its downstream far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historical high for the same period and are expected to destock from November to December. The inventory days of soybean meal for feed enterprises have decreased to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously destocking [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5]. - Profit: The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. - Valuation: From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, it is at a relatively high - to - neutral valuation [5]. - Macro and Policy: The US side said that China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans recently [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to be volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. If there are no obvious weather problems, the market from December to January is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop, and it is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Volatile. Risk factors: Policy and weather. Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal Products - Soybean Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In November, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio also decreased [32]. - Rapeseed Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In the November report, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio decreased [38]. - Rapeseed Production and Distribution: The global rapeseed production and its distribution are presented, with Canada accounting for 22%, the European Union 21%, China 18%, etc. [42][43]. - Brazilian Planting Progress: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is shown, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the planting [48]. - US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit: The US soybean domestic crushing profit is rising [50]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Import - Related Data: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, CNF premiums, and import crushing profit are presented [68][71]. - Domestic Inventory and Consumption Data: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data, as well as data on oil mill operation rate, crushing volume, trading volume, and提货 volume, are provided. The data shows that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, while feed enterprise inventories are at a low level. Soybean meal far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while rapeseed meal trading and提货 are cautious [78][98]. - Feed and Livestock Breeding Data: Data on feed production, livestock and poultry breeding profits, and related prices and weights are presented, showing that current livestock and poultry breeding profits are poor, and pig prices have declined slightly with no obvious weight reduction [111][117].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - If there is no obvious weather problem, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, which may drag down the pricing of the soybean meal futures. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The USDA's November supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the压榨 at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The bullish impact was less than expected [6] - According to 30NB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian crops in 2025/26 is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 68.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and 66.1% in the same period last year. The five - year average is 57% [6] - Pay attention to the relatively dry weather expected in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline from November to December, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal is relatively cost - effective. Recently, downstream trading of soybean meal has been cautious, but the提货 performance is good [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow. In the short - term, the domestic market is expected to continue to follow the US market with a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Before the release of the USDA report, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment phase. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report data this Friday and South American weather [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content A. Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: On November 12, the basis of the Dalian 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 61, down 5; Tianjin was down 5; Rizhao was - 39, down 35; Zhangjiagang was - 9, down 15; Dongguan was - 59, down 25; and Fangcheng was - 39, down 25. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 98, down 10 [6]. - **Spread**: The M1 - 5 spread was 209, down 9; RM1 - 5 was 62, down 17. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 398, down 20; the main - contract disk spread was 565, up 11 [6][7]. B. Price and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0785, and the disk crushing profit was 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The estimated import soybean disk gross profit in 2025 was - 251 yuan/ton [7]. C. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels/acre may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an increase. There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil in the next few weeks, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [9][10]. - **Demand**: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the提货 performance has declined [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that inventory will start to decrease in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment, while the export forecast has room for upward adjustment. The supply-demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply-demand report next week [8][11]. - As of November 1st, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 54.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry conditions expected in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [10]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start reducing inventory, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Due to a significant decline in crushing last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased significantly as of last week. In the short term, the domestic futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly following the US market. Attention should be paid to the USDA report data this week and weather changes in South America [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on November 10th was -3, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous value. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed different changes, such as -5 in Tianjin, 5 in Rizhao, -5 in Zhangjiagang, 15 in Dongguan, -5 in Zhanjiang, and 15 in Fangcheng [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong on November 10th was 105, an increase of 14 compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 99, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous value. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 536, an increase of 17 compared to the previous value [7]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1175, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit was - 86 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The USDA's 25/26 US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. The Brazilian soybean planting rate is lower than the same period last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to weather conditions. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10][11]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. Recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating with an upward bias" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor. With China's expected procurement of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and upward - biased trend following the US market. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus is likely to limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is bullish. USDA's current estimate of the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations, indicating a tight supply - demand balance sheet. As of November 1st, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. In November, domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5] - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and for rapeseed meal is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory factor is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and are expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The profit factor is bullish. Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor, while Canadian rapeseed crushing margins are good [5] - **Valuation**: The valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high - neutral valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is bullish. Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US - imported goods have been adjusted, with a 24% additional tariff rate suspended for one year, leaving a 10% additional tariff rate, and the current tariff rate for Chinese imports of US soybeans is 13%. Canada cannot immediately cancel tariffs on China [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and risks to watch include policy and weather; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [5] 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [34][40] - **US Soybean Data**: The US soybean sowing rate and good - quality rate data are presented, and the domestic crushing profit has declined. This week, no US soybean export sales data were announced [49][54][67] - **Price and Profit Data**: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean crushing margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and Canadian rapeseed import crushing margins are provided [74][78] - **Inventory and Consumption Data**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while feed enterprise inventories are at low levels. Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, as well as oil mill opening rates, crushing volumes, and meal product trading and consumption volumes, are also presented [85][98][107] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Data**: Data on livestock and poultry breeding profits, pig prices, weights, and poultry breeding inventories are provided, showing that pig prices have slightly declined and weight reduction is not obvious [123][127][131]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profitability is poor. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to follow the US market and continue to be volatile and slightly stronger. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus situation will limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis Data**: On November 7th, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian was 62, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin was 2, down 10; in Rizhao it was - 18, down 10; in Zhangjiagang it was 2, up 10; in Dongguan it was - 58, down 10; in Zhanjiang it was - 18; in Fangcheng it was - 38, down 10. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 91, up 23 [6]. - **Spread Data**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 123, down 10; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong was 300, and the spread in the futures market (main contract) was 519, unchanged [7]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **USDA Forecast**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 33.5 bushels may be lowered, and the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment. The US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8][9]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of November 1st, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1%, up from 34.4% last week, compared with 53.3% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 64.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [10]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the pick - up performance has declined [11]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and inventory is expected to start declining in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Exchange Rate, Basis Price, and Profit - related Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, and the futures market profit from importing Brazilian soybeans was 145 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 9, CBOT soybean futures fell after two consecutive days of gains due to long - profit taking, active technical selling, and increased concerns about Sino - US trade. The delay of the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and uncertainties in the farmer assistance plan also affected the market. There are concerns about Sino - US trade war solutions, and a weak La Nina may increase drought risks in major producing areas [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean No.1 2511 closed at 3975 yuan/ton during the day session, up 46 yuan (+1.17%), and 3960 yuan/ton at night, unchanged; DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 2939 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 yuan (+0.20%), and 2929 yuan/ton at night, down 5 yuan (-0.17%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 8.0 cents (-0.78%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 276.6 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.54%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) is 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or unchanged compared to before the holiday, with different basis levels for different months. In East China and South China, different companies have different spot prices and basis levels for different months [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.35 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 12.04 million tons/day two days ago; the inventory was 111.82 million tons/week [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, CBOT soybean futures declined. Reasons include long - profit taking, active technical selling, and increased concerns about Sino - US trade. The USDA postponed the monthly supply - demand report due to the federal government shutdown, and the details of the 10 - 15 billion dollars farmer assistance plan are not announced. China expanded rare - earth export controls, and Sino - US leaders will meet later this month to discuss soybean purchases [1][2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and Bean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [2]