Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The probability of the current ENSO neutral climate transitioning to La Nina climate between October and December 2025 has been raised to 71% [2]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [2]. - Protein meal: Night - session soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Despite uncertainties in US soybean exports due to Sino - US trade tariffs, lower planting area and poor weather since August are expected to lead to a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit. US soybeans have strong support at the bottom with limited downside. In China, the expectation of abundant raw material supply continues, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Oils: Night - session oils trended strongly. Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Short - term palm oil prices may be under pressure. US biodiesel policy has a negative impact on soybean oil, but the upcoming USDA report may boost soybean oil futures prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8336, 9330, and 9893 respectively, with price changes of 80, 86, and 123, and percentage changes of 0.97%, 0.93%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3088, 2550, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of 22, - 15, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.72%, - 0.58%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values. Ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 also had corresponding current and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4340, 1025, 51, and 286 respectively, with price changes of - 40, - 6, 1, and - 3, and percentage changes of - 0.91%, - 0.53%, 1.17%, and - 1.00% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil were 8520, 8640, and 9330 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12%, 0.12%, and - 0.53% respectively. Spot prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads such as those between different grades of oils and meals had current and previous values, showing corresponding changes [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit**: The current import profits of products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans were - 292, 105, and - 70 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The current warehouse receipt quantities of products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 24,544, 639, and 6,953 respectively, with some showing no change compared to the previous values [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Market Review of Oils and Fats - Since April, Trump's trade policy has caused global commodity turmoil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to pessimistic expectations, driving down the overall price of vegetable oils. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, but the high-frequency export data in the early April was good. The market expects that India and other regions may be replenishing their inventories, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April is still at a relatively low level. The price of US soybean oil was strong in April because the domestic inventory of US soybean oil was low, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to significantly increase the consumption of soybean oil. Supported by these two factors, the price of oils and fats has stabilized and fluctuated [4] 2. The Export of Malaysian Palm Oil in April May Fall Short of Expectations, and the Increase in Production and Accumulation of Inventory May Drive Down the Price of Oils and Fats - The latest high-frequency data in April shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.03% month-on-month in the first 30 days of April, and the production in April may reach the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The export increased by 3.6%-5.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous recovery trend. If the apparent consumption is estimated at 350,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of April may be around 1.75 million tons. If the abnormally high apparent consumption of 450,000 tons in March is considered, the inventory at the end of April may be around 1.65 million tons. Against the background of a significant recovery in production, if the demand countries slow down the pace of inventory replenishment, the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil will accelerate. The valuation of Malaysian palm oil is usually related to crude oil and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is usually inversely proportional to POGO, and this inverse relationship has become more obvious in recent years with the increase in the blending ratio of biofuels. From the perspective of the data relationship, if the inventory of Malaysian palm oil recovers to the level of 1.7 million tons, the spread usually drops to around $200/ton, while the current spread level is $400/ton. Therefore, against the background that the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil may reach the level of 1.7 million tons, there may be room for the price of oils and fats to decline in the future [5] 3. The US Biodiesel Policy May Be Bullish in the Medium Term, but the Short-Term Supply Pressure Still Needs to Be Released - In the previous WeChat official account post, it was believed that for palm oil to show a clear upward or downward trend in the future, new drivers are needed from crude oil, production, and demand. There are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the production recovers significantly in April and May, leading to the expectation of inventory accumulation; or the price of crude oil drops significantly, resulting in a decrease in demand and impaired valuation; or a combination of the two, triggering a significant decline scenario. The second scenario is that the production of palm oil fails to increase before July, just meeting the demand. The macroeconomy stabilizes, and there are weather problems in the planting of soybeans and rapeseed, which is likely to lead to a high-level oscillation scenario. Currently, the first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The market is discussing the bullish factors of the supply-side reduction in rapeseed production in Europe and the low inventory of rapeseed in the producing areas, as well as the demand-side US soybean oil biodiesel policy. Due to the low average temperature in Europe, the growth period of rapeseed is longer, and the drought in the early stage reached a historical level. However, the recent rainfall has recovered, and the extent of the production reduction still needs further verification. According to the data of Statistics Canada, the exportable inventory of Canadian rapeseed is almost exhausted, while according to the data of USDA, there is still a certain amount of export. The recent continuous increase in the futures price also reflects the tight supply of rapeseed in the country. However, the inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is relatively high. Under the situation that the palm oil producing areas are actively reducing prices and the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, the difficulty of destocking domestic rapeseed oil in the future also needs to be tested. The US soybean oil biodiesel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil by 500,000-1 million tons per year due to the expected increase in the blending obligation, but the specific details and the use of foreign raw materials still need to be determined by the official, which is expected to be established at some point this year. Overall, the recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [8][9]