Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]