宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal improvement in domestic prices as of January 2025, driven by input factors and anti-involution policies, while still remaining at low levels. It anticipates the potential for expanding domestic demand and monetary easing measures [1][9]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by last year's high base and weak domestic demand [5][10]. - Food prices fell by 0.7% year-on-year, with pork prices down 13.7%, indicating a significant decline in demand [5][10]. - Core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, but this was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weak service price growth [12]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, but the decline was less severe than in December, indicating a narrowing of the drop [6][21]. - Input factors have led to price increases in upstream industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while downstream sectors remain weak due to insufficient demand [21][24]. - The PPI is expected to recover more significantly, driven by anti-involution policies and geopolitical factors affecting commodity prices [8][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts a moderate recovery in prices, supported by policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption incentive, adjustments in pig production capacity, and international gold price trends [8][9]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate demand [27][30]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by a strong supply but weak demand, necessitating continued efforts to stabilize market expectations and enhance domestic momentum [30][31]. Group 4: Pig Cycle Analysis - The pig price in January showed a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [16][17]. - The current pig cycle is still in a downward trend, with production capacity adjustments beginning but not yet sufficient to drive a significant price recovery [16][17]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, which may lead to reduced price volatility in future cycles compared to traditional patterns [18]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's Q4 report emphasizes the need for a flexible and effective monetary policy, with a focus on using tools like interest rate cuts to support economic recovery [27][30]. - There is a notable increase in household deposits moving towards wealth management products, indicating a shift in investment preferences that could impact bank liquidity [29][35]. - Loan interest rates continue to decline, with the weighted average rate at 3.15%, reflecting ongoing efforts to lower financing costs for the economy [29][36]. Group 6: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has strengthened, reaching a midpoint of 6.91 against the USD, creating a favorable environment for capital inflows and policy flexibility [38]. - The anticipated easing of US monetary policy may further enhance China's economic positioning and open up additional policy space [38].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported positive changes in domestic price levels, indicating a recovery in consumer prices and a narrowing decline in producer prices, which supports the high-quality development of the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - As of December 2025, the CPI has increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since March 2023 [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has risen by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [1]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a reduction in its year-on-year decline by 1.7 percentage points compared to the low point in July, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months [1]. Group 2: Price Changes in Specific Categories - Significant declines have been observed in food and transportation categories, with pork prices dropping by 30% and transportation tool prices decreasing by 11.7% since the beginning of 2023 [3]. - Conversely, prices in education, culture, and entertainment have increased by 3.6%, with tourism prices surging by 14.4%, indicating an ongoing optimization and upgrading of consumer spending structures [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policies and Market Confidence - The synergistic effect of macroeconomic policies is strengthening, with advancements in the domestic unified market and the development of new economic drivers, which are expected to enhance supply-demand matching and boost market confidence [3]. - The PBOC has maintained a supportive monetary policy stance, ensuring ample liquidity and a significant growth in financial totals that outpace nominal GDP growth [3]. - Moving forward, the PBOC aims to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to foster stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, aligning with the central economic work conference's directives [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in CPI and PPI for December 2025, highlighting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for both indices, with PPI marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Year-on-year, CPI and PPI are reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively, exceeding previous model predictions [1][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% is attributed to various sectors, with negative growth observed in pork, alcoholic beverages, rent, fuel, and traditional Chinese medicine. Positive growth is noted in fresh vegetables, fruits, medical services, gold jewelry, and durable goods [6][7]. - Durable goods prices showed significant improvement, particularly in household appliances, which saw a historical high month-on-month increase of 1.4% in December, likely influenced by seasonal factors and PPI transmission [6][8]. - Transportation tools experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, above the ten-year average of -0.15%, possibly due to stabilization in car prices amid a "de-involution" context [6][8]. PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% is driven by a 0.8% rise in the mining industry, marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Raw materials and processing industries also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, the fastest rates of the year [2][9]. - In the living goods category, while food and durable goods continued to show negative growth, clothing and general daily necessities recorded increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, marking the second-highest points of the year [2][9]. - Specific industries showed price differentiation, with rising prices in coal mining and processing, contributing significantly to PPI growth. Additionally, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production increased by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively [10][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the simulated deflation index is expected to rise gradually after hitting a low in July 2025, correlating with the timing of increased "de-involution" efforts. The central economic work conference indicates that addressing "involution" will be a key focus for 2026 [3][11]. - Historical economic cycles indicate that periods of nominal growth elasticity, such as 2006-2007 and 2010-2011, are characterized by strong internal demand stimulation. The outlook for 2026 suggests potential benefits from external demand due to fiscal expansions in developed economies and industrialization in developing countries [3][11].

Price Data Overview - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year for three consecutive months[4] - The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while it increased by 0.2% month-on-month[2] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI is primarily driven by a low base effect and an increase in food prices at year-end, with food prices rising by 1.1% year-on-year in December[4] - Non-food prices remained stable at a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[4] - December food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 0.6% in the same month last year[4] PPI Insights - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% in December is attributed to rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and the ongoing effects of domestic "anti-involution" policies[6][7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting sectors rose by 3.7% and 2.8% month-on-month, respectively[7] - The coal mining sector saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.3%, marking five consecutive months of growth[7] Future Outlook - For 2026, the domestic price environment is expected to continue improving, with the CPI likely to stabilize around 0.7%[9] - The ongoing price increases in upstream materials, such as non-ferrous metals and storage chips, may lead to downstream price adjustments in consumer goods[9] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to further support price recovery in upstream and midstream sectors throughout the year[9]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that the November CPI year-on-year growth has expanded, primarily due to a base effect and an unusual seasonal increase in fresh vegetable prices, with core CPI maintaining over 1% growth for three consecutive months [2] - The PPI has shown a month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, driven by "anti-involution," the non-ferrous industry, and downstream consumer goods sectors [2] - The report highlights several bright spots in optional consumption, influenced by policies such as trade-in programs, leading to significant price increases in household appliances and transportation tools, with household appliance prices maintaining a year-on-year growth of over 4% since August [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The November inflation data shows an increase in CPI, which rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, while PPI's year-on-year decline slightly widened to -2.2% [3] - The rise in prices is significantly influenced by seasonal factors, particularly the prices of food items, especially vegetables, which have been impacted by extreme weather and seasonal shifts [3] - The report notes that gold prices continue to provide strong support for overall price increases, contributing to an unexpected rise in inflation [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - The report discusses the results of the 2026 renewable energy bidding across 19 provinces, highlighting a significant regional disparity, with East and North China showing better electricity prices compared to the West and South [4] - Wind power prices are noted to be superior to solar power prices, and the market-oriented bidding for renewable energy is expected to guide the expansion pace in oversupplied regions while stabilizing benefits in areas with good consumption [4] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with advantageous resource locations, high project development efficiency, and low financing costs, particularly in wind power, suggesting companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the turnaround in food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in the previous month[4][5] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with gold prices contributing significantly to this stability, while service prices showed a slowdown due to seasonal demand[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is evident as downstream consumer goods prices stabilize, while upstream coal and metal prices continue to rise[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain its upward trend in December, supported by low base effects and rising food prices, with a projected average CPI growth rate of 0.7% for the coming year[10] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, influenced by global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply-demand adjustments, although the timing for a return to positive growth remains uncertain[11] - The recovery of domestic demand and the potential for a rebound in pork prices are critical factors that could influence CPI trends in the upcoming months[10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a recovery from the previous value of -0.3% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend for six consecutive months [2] - Key factors contributing to the improvement in price data include better food prices, rising gold prices, and robust travel consumption during the holiday season [2] Food Prices and Consumer Behavior - Food prices showed a notable improvement, with actual prices rising by 0.3% in October, contrary to the expected decline of 0.4% based on high-frequency wholesale prices [2] - The increase in gold jewelry prices contributed approximately 0.06 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI [2] - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival led to significant price increases in accommodation (8.6%), air tickets (4.5%), and tourism (2.5%) [2] Weakness in Certain Price Segments - Despite the overall CPI recovery, certain segments like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices declining by 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points [4] - Tobacco and alcohol prices also experienced negative growth, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting limited demand for non-essential consumer goods due to unhealed consumer sentiment [4] Durable Goods Demand - Reports indicate that the demand for durable consumer goods is not strong, with transportation tools showing a consistent year-on-year decline of 1.9% for three consecutive months [4] - The year-on-year growth rates for household appliances and communication tools have also decreased, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4] Urban vs. Rural Price Trends - There is a divergence in price trends between urban and rural areas, with urban CPI increasing by 0.3% year-on-year while rural CPI decreased by 0.2% [4] - The higher weight of food expenditure in rural consumption leads to a more pronounced impact from food price deflation, resulting in a weaker rural price index [4] Future Outlook - The increase in holiday-related consumption is seen as a temporary spike, and fluctuations in gold prices are expected in November [5] - For sustained improvement in CPI, ongoing policy support will be necessary, as the current factors driving CPI are not expected to be long-lasting [5]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]