Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in CPI and PPI for December 2025, highlighting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for both indices, with PPI marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Year-on-year, CPI and PPI are reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively, exceeding previous model predictions [1][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% is attributed to various sectors, with negative growth observed in pork, alcoholic beverages, rent, fuel, and traditional Chinese medicine. Positive growth is noted in fresh vegetables, fruits, medical services, gold jewelry, and durable goods [6][7]. - Durable goods prices showed significant improvement, particularly in household appliances, which saw a historical high month-on-month increase of 1.4% in December, likely influenced by seasonal factors and PPI transmission [6][8]. - Transportation tools experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, above the ten-year average of -0.15%, possibly due to stabilization in car prices amid a "de-involution" context [6][8]. PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% is driven by a 0.8% rise in the mining industry, marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Raw materials and processing industries also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, the fastest rates of the year [2][9]. - In the living goods category, while food and durable goods continued to show negative growth, clothing and general daily necessities recorded increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, marking the second-highest points of the year [2][9]. - Specific industries showed price differentiation, with rising prices in coal mining and processing, contributing significantly to PPI growth. Additionally, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production increased by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively [10][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the simulated deflation index is expected to rise gradually after hitting a low in July 2025, correlating with the timing of increased "de-involution" efforts. The central economic work conference indicates that addressing "involution" will be a key focus for 2026 [3][11]. - Historical economic cycles indicate that periods of nominal growth elasticity, such as 2006-2007 and 2010-2011, are characterized by strong internal demand stimulation. The outlook for 2026 suggests potential benefits from external demand due to fiscal expansions in developed economies and industrialization in developing countries [3][11].

2026 年 1 月 9 日 总量研究 关注"涨价潮"的扩散 ——2025 年 12 月价格数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 CPI 涨势能否延续？——2025 年 11 月价格 数据点评(2025-12-10) PPI 环比转正，谁是拉手？——2025 年 10 月价格数据点评（2025-11-09） CPI 同比何时有望转正？——2025 年 9 月 价格数据点评（2025-10-15） PPI 迎来上行拐点——2025 年 8 月价格数 据点评（2025-09-10） "反内卷"效果初现——2025 年 7 月价格 数据点评（2025-08-09） 核心通胀继续回暖——2025 年 6 月价格数 据点评（2025-07-09） 如何看待分化的物价？——2025 年 5 月价 格数据点评（2025-06-09） 国内物价运行好于预期——2025 年 4 月价 格数据点评（2 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月 CPI 涨幅扩大，PPI 降幅小幅走阔 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后——20251210 【固定收益】菜价推升 CPI——20251210 ◼ 研究视点 【电力】新能源新格局：解码 19 省机制电价竞价结果——20251210 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后 作者 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 14.0% | 19.3% | 91.1% | | 综合 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 46.2% | | 国防军工 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 15.1% | | 轻工制造 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 10.6% | | 机械设备 | 1.6% | 4.3% ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the turnaround in food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in the previous month[4][5] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with gold prices contributing significantly to this stability, while service prices showed a slowdown due to seasonal demand[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is evident as downstream consumer goods prices stabilize, while upstream coal and metal prices continue to rise[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain its upward trend in December, supported by low base effects and rising food prices, with a projected average CPI growth rate of 0.7% for the coming year[10] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, influenced by global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply-demand adjustments, although the timing for a return to positive growth remains uncertain[11] - The recovery of domestic demand and the potential for a rebound in pork prices are critical factors that could influence CPI trends in the upcoming months[10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a recovery from the previous value of -0.3% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend for six consecutive months [2] - Key factors contributing to the improvement in price data include better food prices, rising gold prices, and robust travel consumption during the holiday season [2] Food Prices and Consumer Behavior - Food prices showed a notable improvement, with actual prices rising by 0.3% in October, contrary to the expected decline of 0.4% based on high-frequency wholesale prices [2] - The increase in gold jewelry prices contributed approximately 0.06 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI [2] - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival led to significant price increases in accommodation (8.6%), air tickets (4.5%), and tourism (2.5%) [2] Weakness in Certain Price Segments - Despite the overall CPI recovery, certain segments like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices declining by 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points [4] - Tobacco and alcohol prices also experienced negative growth, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting limited demand for non-essential consumer goods due to unhealed consumer sentiment [4] Durable Goods Demand - Reports indicate that the demand for durable consumer goods is not strong, with transportation tools showing a consistent year-on-year decline of 1.9% for three consecutive months [4] - The year-on-year growth rates for household appliances and communication tools have also decreased, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4] Urban vs. Rural Price Trends - There is a divergence in price trends between urban and rural areas, with urban CPI increasing by 0.3% year-on-year while rural CPI decreased by 0.2% [4] - The higher weight of food expenditure in rural consumption leads to a more pronounced impact from food price deflation, resulting in a weaker rural price index [4] Future Outlook - The increase in holiday-related consumption is seen as a temporary spike, and fluctuations in gold prices are expected in November [5] - For sustained improvement in CPI, ongoing policy support will be necessary, as the current factors driving CPI are not expected to be long-lasting [5]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year improved from -0.4% to -0.3%, while the core CPI rose to 1%[2] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -2.9% to -2.3%[2] - The GDP deflator index is expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.9% in Q3, aiding nominal growth stabilization[2] Group 2: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has been rising monthly, reaching 1% in September, the first time since March of the previous year[3] - Core goods prices increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 1.8% in September, the highest since 2021[4] - The contribution to the core CPI increase from core goods, rent, and core services is estimated at 0.61, 0.05, and 0.11 percentage points respectively[4] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Household appliance prices surged from -3.4% to 5.5%, marking a record high since 2002, driven by consumption policies[4] - Gold jewelry prices increased by 42.1%, contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to the core CPI[4] - The prices of medical services rose by 1.9%, reflecting ongoing reforms in the healthcare sector[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of consumption policies is expected to continue influencing price trends, with potential fluctuations as funding phases out[5] - The recovery of rent prices is crucial for the mid-term upward adjustment of the core CPI[5] - Uncertainties regarding the implementation of unified market policies pose risks to the inflation outlook[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [1][4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][5] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies and rising prices in appliances and mobile phones, which offset the decline in food prices [4][5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, a reduction in the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][7] - The flat PPI reflects weak domestic demand despite stable international oil prices and rising copper prices, with certain export-heavy industries facing price pressures [6][7] - Future PPI trends are expected to remain flat in October, with a year-on-year decline projected to be around 2.2%, indicating challenges in turning positive by year-end [6][7]

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, remaining at a low level since the beginning of the year[3] - Core CPI improved by 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%, the highest since March 2024, driven by rising gold prices and effective fiscal subsidies for durable goods[3] - Food CPI fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices rising by 6.1% and 1.7% respectively, while pork prices continued to decline due to ample supply[4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - September PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 0.6 percentage points to -2.3%, influenced by low base effects and anti-involution measures[3] - PPI recovery is expected to be gradual due to weak domestic investment demand, with upstream industrial prices stabilizing as anti-involution progresses[5] - International oil price fluctuations led to a 2.0% month-on-month decline in oil and gas extraction, while coal mining increased by 2.5% month-on-month[5] Economic Outlook - The inflation data indicates a synchronized improvement in core CPI and PPI, with fiscal subsidies continuing to boost durable goods consumption[6] - Uncertainties in the fourth quarter and into 2026 are anticipated due to potential export pressures from cooling external demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - The central government may increase consumption subsidies and effective investment budgets if export declines are significant, with a potential for a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points[6]

Core Viewpoint - The August CPI turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food prices, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Core CPI continues to improve, reaching 0.9% year-on-year, supported by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, as well as services [4][5] CPI Analysis - The food price index fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork contributing significantly to the decline [3][4] - The drop in vegetable and pork prices may not be sustained due to high base effects from last year, where prices surged due to extreme weather conditions [3][4] - The core CPI's increase is attributed to a 37.1% rise in gold jewelry prices and a 27.3% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the core CPI [5][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended its downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is beginning to show, but its impact on prices is limited, with various industries experiencing reduced price declines [8][9] - Predictions indicate that the PPI may have reached its bottom in July, with future declines expected to narrow, although a positive trend in the next year remains challenging [9][10] Consumer Goods and Services - Prices of durable goods are showing improvement, with household appliances increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and communication tools by 0.8% [6][7] - The automotive sector is experiencing a reduction in price declines due to improved competition management, with fuel vehicle prices decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the rise in consumer prices for certain goods, the PPI for related industries has not improved, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [6][7]