其他用品及服务是居民消费价格指数（CPI）统计中的第八大类，涵盖珠宝、手表、殡葬用品等非日常 耐用消费品及服务，在2025年前三季度占全国居民人均消费支出的3.0%。 这个项目再细分就是，实物用品：如珠宝首饰、手表、箱包等耐用消费品。服务项目：如殡葬服务、美 容美发服务、家庭维修服务等。 数据显示，2025年前三季度，全国居民人均其他用品及服务消费支出为639元，占人均消费支出的 3.0%，增速达10.3%。 对这个数据影响最大的部分是珠宝、贵金属商品。按照2024年年末的情况，黄金的权重分别占CPI和核 心CPI的2.7%和4.9%，金饰品和铂金价格同比去年分别上涨了50.3%和46.1%。国盛证券的研报测算，强 调国内黄金期货价格与CPI的"其他用品和服务"呈现明显的正相关关系，如果剔除贵金属价格的上涨， 10月CPI和核心CPI同比分别是负的0.2%和0.6%。 10月份通胀水平引发市场关注，核心CPI连涨6个月，同比上涨幅度达到1.2%。尤其值得注意的是服务 价格的持续回升。 具体来看，10月CPI同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨 幅连续第6个月扩 ...

Core Insights - In October, there was a positive change in consumer prices, with a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year shift from decline to growth [1][3]. Group 1: Month-on-Month Changes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by expanded holiday consumption and rising industrial goods prices [3]. - Holiday travel demand led to increased transportation and accommodation prices, with hotel prices rising by 8.6%, flight tickets by 4.5%, and tourism prices by 2.5% [3]. - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, shrimp, and beef seeing price increases between 0.5% and 4.3% [3]. - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to the CPI increase [3]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Changes - The CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.3%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with notable rises in air ticket and hotel prices, reflecting ongoing consumer upgrades and increased demand for high-quality services [4]. - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 2% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of growth, with household appliances and durable goods seeing price increases between 2.4% and 5% [4]. - The downward pressure from food and energy prices has lessened, with food prices down 2.9% and energy prices down 2.4% year-on-year, but the decline rates have narrowed compared to the previous month [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market demand remains insufficient, and prices are operating at a low level despite positive changes in consumer prices [5]. - Future measures will focus on expanding domestic demand, promoting a unified national market, optimizing the competitive environment, and improving supply-demand relationships to facilitate reasonable price recovery [5].

Group 1: CPI Insights - In October, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, up from -0.3% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -0.1%[2][4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rose to 1.2%, compared to 1.0% in the previous month[2][4] - Food prices saw a narrowing year-on-year decline from -4.4% to -2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, surpassing the seasonal average decline of -0.4%[4][5] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.1% from -2.3%, while the month-on-month PPI increased by 0.1%, marking the first increase of the year[2][6] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to enhanced industrial supply-demand relationships and rising international metal prices, with copper mining prices increasing by 5.3% month-on-month[6][7] - The prices in the coal mining sector rose by 1.6% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in upstream industries[6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to continue its upward trend in Q4, potentially reaching an annual average of 0.7% in 2026, driven by recovering food prices and ongoing consumption policies[8][9] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to continue narrowing, although the timeline for a return to positive growth remains uncertain due to slow supply-side adjustments[9][10]

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained stable in the first three quarters, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first half and the first quarter [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous recovery since March, rising to 1% in September, the highest in nearly 19 months [4] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with fresh vegetable prices averaging a drop of 7.9% and pork prices shifting from an increase of 3.8% in the first half to a decrease of 2.9% in the first three quarters [2] Group 2: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with gasoline prices dropping by 7.3% due to international oil price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Producer Price Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [5] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a recovery in prices for certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines [5] Group 4: External Influences on Prices - International oil prices have generally trended downward, impacting domestic oil-related industry prices, with a 9.9% decline in the oil and gas extraction industry [6] - Conversely, international non-ferrous metal prices have risen, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries [6] Group 5: High-Tech Industry Developments - The development of high-tech industries and effective macro policies have driven price increases in certain sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which rose by 3.0% year-on-year [7] - Upgraded consumer demand has also contributed to price increases in sectors like arts and crafts manufacturing, which saw a 12.7% rise [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current positive changes in prices in China are continuing to accumulate, but the consumer price index (CPI) remains low, necessitating efforts to promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month and shifted from stable to a decline year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [1] - Food prices in August decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting the CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and continuing a trend of rising for four consecutive months [1] Group 2: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices saw an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 1.5% in August, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved supply and demand [2] - Prices for household appliances and entertainment durable goods rose by 4.6% and 2.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, with a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services [2] - Medical and educational service prices rose by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, while transportation rental and tourism prices increased by 0.8% and 0.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market supply-demand relationship remains prominent, and the consumer price level is still low, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and implement consumption-boosting initiatives [2]

Economic Overview - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1% [2] Year-on-Year Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a 4.3% drop in food prices, with significant decreases in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, all exceeding 10% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking an increase for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [3][4] Industrial Consumer Goods - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with notable price rises in household appliances and entertainment durable goods [4] - The price increase in industrial consumer goods is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and policies promoting consumption upgrades [4] Service Prices - Service prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, supported by increased demand for high-quality social services and tourism during the summer [5] - Key service sectors such as medical and educational services saw price increases of 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating a steady upward trend in service pricing [5] Future Outlook - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting initiatives to promote reasonable price recovery [5]

Core Insights - The core CPI has expanded for three consecutive months, primarily due to the implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives and the regulation of corporate competition [1][2] - In July, the national consumer price index remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a low operating trend for the year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, with the growth rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Economic Factors - The implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives has gradually released the potential for goods and services consumption, enhancing price momentum [1] - The steady progress in building a unified domestic market has curbed disorderly low-price competition among enterprises, contributing to price recovery [1] Price Structure - Both industrial consumer goods prices and service prices have shown stable increases, driving the expansion of the core CPI [1] - In July, industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1] - Service prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, surpassing the CPI growth rate, and have been on the rise since March [1] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry increased significantly in July, by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to the rise in core CPI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]