影响上，美国周初请失业金人数以外下降和美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修等，推动美元指数继续强势反 弹收涨，创近两周新高，一度打压金价走低，但受到逢低买盘和避险买盘支撑而反弹回升，最终震荡收 线。 展望今日周五(9月26日)：国际黄金开盘早盘有所走弱，但日内短周期来看，走盘依然还是偏向震荡波 动为主，多头暂时一方面受到阻力位的压制，另一方面，受到美元指数近日强势反弹，多头前景转强， 对金价产生利空预期。所以金价在突破阻力3780美元上方收线前，或者是回踩10日及30日均线支撑之 前，暂先保持震荡走盘行情对待。 日内将可关注美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率及月率、美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值等数据， 市场预期保持不变，但根据昨日公布的数据向好和之前公布的几次趋势来看，大概率将数据好于前值， 而会打压金价走低。反之则会提振金价走强。 上交易日周四(9月25日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，维持在5日均线上方，虽然附图指标多头信号减弱，但主 图走势仍倾向上行，故此，回撤调整触及各均线支撑位置，也都是看涨入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3735.78美元/盎司，整体维持震荡走盘，于欧盘初录得日内高点3761.31美 元， ...

Market Performance - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82%. In contrast, the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, rose by 0.52% [1]. A-share and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market could not maintain its upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% to close at 3,858 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.14% to 12,553 points, marking a halt after three consecutive rises. The total trading volume in both markets reached 2.9 trillion RMB [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market also showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index initially rising over 100 points but later declining by more than 200 points to a low of 25,416 points, ultimately closing at 25,496 points, down by 0.47%. The Tech Index closed at 5,728 points, down by 1.2%, with a total trading volume of 328 billion HKD [2]. - Notable declines were observed in technology stocks, with Alibaba falling by 1.75%, Meituan down by 1.9%, and JD.com decreasing by 1.5%. Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC saw a drop of over 4.6%, while Sunny Optical and China Hongqiao also experienced declines exceeding 3% [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices surpassed 3,500 USD, reaching a historical high. However, gold mining stocks showed mixed performance, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Gold rising by 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining both fell by over 1.7% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite the overall market decline, the drop was relatively limited, and investors are expected to continue monitoring A-share performance. The Hang Seng Index remains above the 10-day (25,335 points) and 20-day moving averages (25,239 points), which could support a challenge to last week's high of 25,918 points [3]. - Following Alibaba's surprising earnings report, there is optimism that the Hong Kong market may continue its upward trend and challenge the 10-day moving average level of 25,254 points [3].

Group 1 - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index increased, putting pressure on international gold prices, which fell to their lowest level in over two weeks [1] - As of the close, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $3358.7 per ounce, a decline of 0.57% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with the price of 999 gold jewelry dropping to 979 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a rise in market risk appetite, which has put pressure on gold prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index has been rebounding, further negatively impacting gold prices [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to influence gold prices, which are currently under pressure [2] Group 3 - Current prices for various gold and platinum products in RMB per gram include: - 999 gold jewelry: 979 RMB - 999.9 gold jewelry: 989 RMB - Platinum jewelry: 470 RMB - Gold bars: 952 RMB [3][4] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while October delivery of Brent crude oil settled at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market experienced a decline due to unexpected high inflation data from the U.S., impacting market expectations and leading to selling pressure on gold [1] Group 1: Market Data - On December 14, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price fell by $26.0, closing at $3,382.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, surpassing June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, U.S. stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased [1] - The report slightly reduced market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, contributing to the selling pressure in the gold market [1] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 3,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, bringing the total to 224,000, which was below market expectations of 228,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - Following this data release, the dollar index jumped approximately 25 points, surpassing the 98 mark, while gold prices significantly declined, reaching an intraday low [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, December gold futures maintain a solid overall technical advantage for the bulls in the near term [1] - On the same day, silver futures for September delivery fell by $0.567, closing at $38.035 per ounce, a decline of 1.47% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Group 1 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a sharp decline, approaching 3.87% and near flatline [1] - Gold prices maintained a decline of over 0.7%, reported at $3303 [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq increased by over 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Shanghai Gold Futures Contracts Information** - **沪金加权**: Latest price is 794.00 [6] - **沪金主连**: Latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2508**: Latest price is 790.30, with a trading volume of 24,723, a rise of 7.16 (0.91% increase), an open interest of 41,076, and a daily decrease in open interest of 1,896. The opening price is 786.50, the highest is 791.34, and the lowest is 785.08 [6] - **沪金2509**: Latest price is 791.66 [6] - **沪金2510 M**: Similar to 沪金主连, latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2512**: Latest price is 795.08, with a trading volume of 45,092, a rise of 7.42 (0.94% increase), an open interest of 111,896, and a daily increase in open interest of 6,926. The opening price is 790.62, the highest is 795.88, and the lowest is 789.42 [6] - **SA Ancos**: Value is 0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]