Core Insights - Global gold demand is expected to remain resilient in Q4, with a potential seasonal rebound in the Chinese market driven by holidays [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) indicates that geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 will continue to support global gold demand [1] - Investment demand remains dominant, with record high global gold demand in Q3 2025, primarily driven by gold bars and coins [1][2] Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value rising 44% to $146 billion [1] - Investment demand accounted for 40.9% of total gold demand, with gold bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, totaling 316 tons [1] - Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter, despite a slowdown in cumulative purchases compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Chinese Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons, a 7% year-on-year decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [3] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached 120.4 billion RMB (approximately $16.9 billion), a 29% year-on-year increase, indicating a "volume drop, price rise" trend [3] - Gold jewelry demand saw a seasonal rebound, with a quarterly demand of 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, driven by seasonal factors and consumer willingness to purchase despite high prices [3] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased only 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, with gold mine production and recycled gold contributing 73.8% and 26.2% respectively [2] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 reached $3,457 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, reflecting the disparity between strong demand and limited supply growth [2] Group 4: Gold ETFs in China - In Q3, China's gold ETFs experienced a slight outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million), ending three consecutive quarters of net inflow [4] - Despite the outflow, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs grew 11% year-on-year to 168.8 billion RMB (approximately $23.7 billion), reaching a new monthly high [4] - The Chinese official gold reserves increased by 24 tons in the first nine months of the year, with a quarterly increase of 5 tons, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high, driven by strong investment demand, while China's gold demand showed a "volume decline but value rise" pattern. Looking ahead to Q4, global gold allocation demand is expected to remain resilient, and China's market may see a holiday-driven uptick [2][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, total global gold demand (including OTC investment) rose about 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with the total value up 44% YoY to $146 billion. Investment demand was the main driver, with bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tonnes for the fourth consecutive quarter and global gold ETF holdings increasing sharply. Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tonnes, up 28% QoQ [2] - The breakdown of global gold demand shows that investment/gold jewelry manufacturing/central banks and other institutions/technology use/OTC and other institutions accounted for 40.9%/31.9%/16.7%/6.2%/4.2% respectively. Gold jewelry consumption volume declined 19% YoY to 371 tonnes but the consumption value rose 13% YoY to $41 billion due to high gold prices [2] Global Gold Supply - Amid high prices, total global gold supply rose only 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with mine production and recycled gold accounting for 73.8% and 26.2% respectively, up 2% and 6% YoY. The contrast between demand growth and supply expansion drove prices higher. In Q3 2025, the LBMA average gold price reached $3,457/oz, up 40% YoY and 5% QoQ [4] China's Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's total retail gold investment and consumption demand was 152 tonnes, down 7% YoY and 38% QoQ, but the value reached RMB 120.4 billion ($16.9 billion), up 29% YoY. Gold jewelry demand accounted for 55.3%, with a volume of 84 tonnes, down 18% YoY but up 21% QoQ, and the retail sales reached RMB 66.5 billion (+14% YoY / +25% QoQ) [8] - Gold bar and coin investment demand rose 19% YoY to 74 tonnes, though down 36% QoQ, and the cumulative 9M25 purchases reached 313 tonnes (+24% YoY). China's gold ETFs had a small outflow of RMB 3.8 billion ($540 million) in Q3 2025, but the AUM still rose 11% QoQ to RMB 168.8 billion. The official gold reserves increased by 24 tonnes YTD, with a 5-tonne increase in Q3 2025, reaching 2,304 tonnes, or 7.7% of foreign exchange reserves [8] Outlook - The World Gold Council believes that geopolitical uncertainty and Q4's rate cut expectations will support global gold allocation demand. In China, Q4 gold jewelry consumption may improve seasonally, but if gold prices remain high, the end - market recovery may be limited. The later Lunar New Year in 2026 may push back retailer restocking and consumer purchases [9]

Gold Price Forecasts - Bank of America and Societe Generale both forecast gold prices to reach $5,000/ounce in 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4,488/ounce [1] - Goldman Sachs previously increased its 2026 gold target price from $4,300/ounce to $4,900/ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher, maintaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a bullish outlook despite weakening bullish signals from indicators [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3735.78 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3761.31, and a low of $3722.16, ultimately closing at $3749.12, with a daily range of $39.15 and a gain of $13.34, or 0.36% [3]. Influencing Factors - The decline in initial jobless claims and a significant upward revision of the U.S. Q2 GDP contributed to a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which pressured gold prices initially. However, buying support from bargain hunters and safe-haven demand led to a recovery in gold prices [3]. Market Outlook - On September 26, gold prices showed weakness in early trading, with expectations of continued volatility. The bullish outlook is temporarily hindered by resistance levels and the recent strength of the dollar index, suggesting that gold may remain in a range until it breaks above $3780 or tests the support of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages [3]. Upcoming Data - Key data to watch includes the U.S. August core PCE price index and the final value of the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Market expectations remain unchanged, but recent positive data trends suggest a likelihood of better-than-previous values, which could negatively impact gold prices [3].

Market Performance - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82%. In contrast, the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, rose by 0.52% [1]. A-share and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market could not maintain its upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% to close at 3,858 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.14% to 12,553 points, marking a halt after three consecutive rises. The total trading volume in both markets reached 2.9 trillion RMB [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market also showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index initially rising over 100 points but later declining by more than 200 points to a low of 25,416 points, ultimately closing at 25,496 points, down by 0.47%. The Tech Index closed at 5,728 points, down by 1.2%, with a total trading volume of 328 billion HKD [2]. - Notable declines were observed in technology stocks, with Alibaba falling by 1.75%, Meituan down by 1.9%, and JD.com decreasing by 1.5%. Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC saw a drop of over 4.6%, while Sunny Optical and China Hongqiao also experienced declines exceeding 3% [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices surpassed 3,500 USD, reaching a historical high. However, gold mining stocks showed mixed performance, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Gold rising by 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining both fell by over 1.7% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite the overall market decline, the drop was relatively limited, and investors are expected to continue monitoring A-share performance. The Hang Seng Index remains above the 10-day (25,335 points) and 20-day moving averages (25,239 points), which could support a challenge to last week's high of 25,918 points [3]. - Following Alibaba's surprising earnings report, there is optimism that the Hong Kong market may continue its upward trend and challenge the 10-day moving average level of 25,254 points [3].

Group 1 - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index increased, putting pressure on international gold prices, which fell to their lowest level in over two weeks [1] - As of the close, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $3358.7 per ounce, a decline of 0.57% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with the price of 999 gold jewelry dropping to 979 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a rise in market risk appetite, which has put pressure on gold prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index has been rebounding, further negatively impacting gold prices [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to influence gold prices, which are currently under pressure [2] Group 3 - Current prices for various gold and platinum products in RMB per gram include: - 999 gold jewelry: 979 RMB - 999.9 gold jewelry: 989 RMB - Platinum jewelry: 470 RMB - Gold bars: 952 RMB [3][4] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while October delivery of Brent crude oil settled at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market experienced a decline due to unexpected high inflation data from the U.S., impacting market expectations and leading to selling pressure on gold [1] Group 1: Market Data - On December 14, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price fell by $26.0, closing at $3,382.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, surpassing June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, U.S. stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased [1] - The report slightly reduced market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, contributing to the selling pressure in the gold market [1] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 3,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, bringing the total to 224,000, which was below market expectations of 228,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - Following this data release, the dollar index jumped approximately 25 points, surpassing the 98 mark, while gold prices significantly declined, reaching an intraday low [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, December gold futures maintain a solid overall technical advantage for the bulls in the near term [1] - On the same day, silver futures for September delivery fell by $0.567, closing at $38.035 per ounce, a decline of 1.47% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Group 1 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a sharp decline, approaching 3.87% and near flatline [1] - Gold prices maintained a decline of over 0.7%, reported at $3303 [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq increased by over 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Shanghai Gold Futures Contracts Information** - **沪金加权**: Latest price is 794.00 [6] - **沪金主连**: Latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2508**: Latest price is 790.30, with a trading volume of 24,723, a rise of 7.16 (0.91% increase), an open interest of 41,076, and a daily decrease in open interest of 1,896. The opening price is 786.50, the highest is 791.34, and the lowest is 785.08 [6] - **沪金2509**: Latest price is 791.66 [6] - **沪金2510 M**: Similar to 沪金主连, latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2512**: Latest price is 795.08, with a trading volume of 45,092, a rise of 7.42 (0.94% increase), an open interest of 111,896, and a daily increase in open interest of 6,926. The opening price is 790.62, the highest is 795.88, and the lowest is 789.42 [6] - **SA Ancos**: Value is 0 [6]