美国劳工统计局（BLS）宣布，取消了其10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。该机构表示，它可以获取本月的 大部分非调查数据，并将"在可能的情况下"在11月份的CPI报告中发布10月份的数值。但11月份的报告将不包括那 些缺失了10月份数据项目的11月份环比百分比变化。 （图/东方IC） 而近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策的担忧。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，"在大雾 中开车时，你会怎么做？你会减速……有可能在行动上采取更为谨慎的态度会更合理。" 而据路透社报道，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams） 于当地时间周五公开称，"我认为货币政策目前适度紧 缩……因此，我认为短期内仍有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间。"威廉 姆斯的新言论使投资者认为，美联储12月会议降息25个基点的可能性接近60%，这与此前因担忧通胀而强烈认为 美联储将暂停降息的预期截然相反。 值得注意的是，美联储12月议息会议结果公布是当月11日，此前11月非农就业报告改期至12月16日发布，这意味 着美联储官员在议息会议前无法获得关键的"11月CPI报告+非农就业报告。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, indicates that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market and reduced inflation risks [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Williams notes an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have decreased [1][2] - The core inflation is on a downward trend, and there are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs impacting current inflation rates [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Current monetary policy is considered to have a certain degree of tightness, but its intensity has lessened compared to recent measures, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1] - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, reflecting uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding further cuts [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation Impact - Trade tariffs are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current inflation rate, but Williams does not foresee any significant second-round price effects from these tariffs [2] - The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation management [2] Group 4: Long-term Inflation Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to a 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [2] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the next year, but expects inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Logan emphasizes the need for continued research on the most effective communication regarding the target range for the federal funds rate [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering the appropriateness of its communication strategy related to the federal funds rate [1]