（文章来源：新华财经） Allspring全球投资跨资产解决方案团队投资组合经理Rushabh Amin指出，美联储当前3.50%–3.75%的联 邦基金利率目标区间已非常接近中性水平，同时不会进一步加剧通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has canceled its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, stating that it can obtain most of the non-survey data for the month and will release the October figures in the November report if possible [1] - The November report will not include the month-over-month percentage changes for those items missing October data, which may impact the interpretation of economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting results will be announced on the 11th of that month, but the November non-farm payroll report has been rescheduled for December 16, meaning Fed officials will lack key data before the meeting [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about making monetary policy decisions in a "data fog," with Chairman Powell suggesting a more cautious approach may be warranted [2] - New comments from New York Fed President John Williams indicate that monetary policy is currently moderately tight, suggesting there is room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range to bring policy closer to neutral [2]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, indicates that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market and reduced inflation risks [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Williams notes an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have decreased [1][2] - The core inflation is on a downward trend, and there are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs impacting current inflation rates [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Current monetary policy is considered to have a certain degree of tightness, but its intensity has lessened compared to recent measures, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1] - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, reflecting uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding further cuts [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation Impact - Trade tariffs are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current inflation rate, but Williams does not foresee any significant second-round price effects from these tariffs [2] - The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation management [2] Group 4: Long-term Inflation Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to a 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [2] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the next year, but expects inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Logan emphasizes the need for continued research on the most effective communication regarding the target range for the federal funds rate [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering the appropriateness of its communication strategy related to the federal funds rate [1]