美联储威廉姆斯：美联储政策"略具限制性"，有一定空间回归中性水平 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicates that, given interest rates have been lowered to near "neutral levels," the Federal Reserve should proceed with caution. He notes that current interest rates still exert "some restrictive" effects on the economy [1]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently at a point where interest rates are close to neutral levels [1] - Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy decisions moving forward [1] - Current interest rates are still having a restrictive impact on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution as interest rates approach a "neutral level," indicating that current rates still exert a "certain restrictive" effect on the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - Jefferson supports the recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut of 2025, due to rising risks of a cooling labor market [1] - He acknowledges that the balance of risks has shifted, with increased downside risks to employment [1] Economic Outlook - Current data suggests that the overall economic situation in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent months [1] - The U.S. economy is described as growing at a "moderate pace," while the job market is "gradually cooling" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts this week and in December, indicating that such decisions are not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Concerns - Four Federal Reserve officials voiced their worries about the recent interest rate cut and the potential for another cut in December [1] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted against the 25 basis point cut, citing concerns over persistent inflation [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both without voting rights this year, suggested they would oppose a rate cut if they had the opportunity [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Mester emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the 25 basis point cut, highlighted the importance of ensuring that the policy stance remains tight amid stubborn inflation across various sectors [1] - Bostic noted that each rate cut makes the justification for further easing less clear, as rates approach a neutral level that may not effectively curb price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates are significantly above neutral levels, and there are indications that a rapid rate cut of 150 basis points may be considered, but market expectations remain unaffected as evidenced by the rising two-year Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Commentary - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, closely associated with Trump, suggests a swift reduction in interest rates, yet the two-year Treasury yield has rebounded to over 3.60% [1] - Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, argues that such statements are unrealistic and fail to influence market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The continued increase in two-year Treasury yields indicates that a lack of reasonable basis for the proposed rate cuts may not effectively lower long-term borrowing costs [1] - Ozkardeskaya emphasizes that the Federal Reserve cannot lower rates arbitrarily, likening it to distributing candy at a party [1]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicates that the current policy interest rate is significantly above the neutral level, suggesting that monetary policy is highly restrictive [1] Group 1 - The high policy interest rate implies strong limitations on monetary policy, which could affect economic growth and investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The August non-farm payroll report from the U.S. indicates a weakening labor market, with employment, hours worked, and income growth returning to pandemic levels, suggesting a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Labor Market Conditions** - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with key metrics such as employment, hours worked, and income growth reverting to levels seen during the pandemic [1] - **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy** - The Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if inflation data for August is weaker than expected [1] - Previous inflation forecasts by the Federal Reserve have proven overly pessimistic, while their predictions regarding the labor market have been overly optimistic [1] - **Future Interest Rate Projections** - A sustained easing cycle is anticipated, aiming to lower rates to around 3% by March 2026, which is considered the "neutral level" [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to implement further stimulus measures, potentially reducing rates close to 2% [1] - There is a risk that if inflation rises again, some of the stimulus measures may be reversed by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury bonds are experiencing a decline, with the Federal Reserve's Harvack stating that the Fed does not believe its policy is far from neutral and sees no need for stimulative measures [1] Group 1 - The decline in U.S. Treasury bonds indicates potential shifts in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - Harvack's comments suggest a stable outlook for monetary policy, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates closer to a neutral level [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasizes the importance of aligning interest rates with neutral levels to support economic stability [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction, which could impact market expectations [1] - Waller's comments reflect ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriate stance on interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic conditions have not yet reached a neutral level due to rising inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The primary reason for not achieving a neutral level is attributed to the increase in inflation expectations [1]