钛媒体App 2月3日消息，美联储博斯蒂克称，或许一两次降息就能达到中性水平；之前预计2026年不会 有任何降息。（广角观察） ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事沃勒：货币政策应更接近中性水平，中性水平可能在3%左右，而目前利率区间为3.50%– 3.75%。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） Allspring全球投资跨资产解决方案团队投资组合经理Rushabh Amin指出，美联储当前3.50%–3.75%的联 邦基金利率目标区间已非常接近中性水平，同时不会进一步加剧通胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income, advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 3%, emphasizing the independence of the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Rieder believes that lowering the interest rate to 3% would bring it closer to a neutral level, which he defines as neither stimulating nor restricting the economy [2]. - Currently, the Federal Funds rate is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a reduction to 3% would decrease borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points [2]. - Despite the Fed's recent rate cuts, officials' median expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are limited to only one instance of 25 basis points, while market expectations suggest at least two cuts [2]. Group 2: Fed Independence and Leadership - Rieder expresses confidence in the Fed's independence, stating that the committee will make decisions based on data and integrity [3]. - He acknowledges the accuracy of reports regarding his interview for the Fed Chair position and mentions that President Trump may announce the nominee before or after attending the World Economic Forum in Davos [3]. - Other candidates for the Fed Chair position include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, but Trump has indicated that he has already decided on a nominee [3]. Group 3: Market Perspective - Rieder shares his market outlook, indicating a preference for a balanced investment approach rather than favoring small-cap stocks, and predicts that 2026 will be a market for investors rather than speculators [3].

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock Global Fixed Income, advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 3%, which he believes is closer to a neutral level, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Perspective - Rieder states that lowering the interest rate to 3% would reduce borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points from the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2]. - He has consistently expressed his belief that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, indicating that the current rates are not conducive to economic stability [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Rieder expresses confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence, stating that the committee will make decisions based on data and integrity [3]. - He acknowledges the accuracy of reports regarding his interview for the Federal Reserve Chair position and mentions that President Trump has already decided on a nominee [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Rieder shares his market perspective, indicating a preference for a balanced investment approach rather than favoring small-cap stocks, and predicts that 2026 will be a market for investors rather than speculators [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy is described as "slightly restrictive," indicating that there is some room to return to a neutral level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy, reflecting ongoing economic conditions [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the potential for adjustments in policy to align with neutral levels, which may impact future economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicates that, given interest rates have been lowered to near "neutral levels," the Federal Reserve should proceed with caution. He notes that current interest rates still exert "some restrictive" effects on the economy [1]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently at a point where interest rates are close to neutral levels [1] - Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy decisions moving forward [1] - Current interest rates are still having a restrictive impact on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution as interest rates approach a "neutral level," indicating that current rates still exert a "certain restrictive" effect on the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - Jefferson supports the recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut of 2025, due to rising risks of a cooling labor market [1] - He acknowledges that the balance of risks has shifted, with increased downside risks to employment [1] Economic Outlook - Current data suggests that the overall economic situation in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent months [1] - The U.S. economy is described as growing at a "moderate pace," while the job market is "gradually cooling" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts this week and in December, indicating that such decisions are not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Concerns - Four Federal Reserve officials voiced their worries about the recent interest rate cut and the potential for another cut in December [1] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted against the 25 basis point cut, citing concerns over persistent inflation [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both without voting rights this year, suggested they would oppose a rate cut if they had the opportunity [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Mester emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the 25 basis point cut, highlighted the importance of ensuring that the policy stance remains tight amid stubborn inflation across various sectors [1] - Bostic noted that each rate cut makes the justification for further easing less clear, as rates approach a neutral level that may not effectively curb price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates are significantly above neutral levels, and there are indications that a rapid rate cut of 150 basis points may be considered, but market expectations remain unaffected as evidenced by the rising two-year Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Commentary - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, closely associated with Trump, suggests a swift reduction in interest rates, yet the two-year Treasury yield has rebounded to over 3.60% [1] - Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, argues that such statements are unrealistic and fail to influence market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The continued increase in two-year Treasury yields indicates that a lack of reasonable basis for the proposed rate cuts may not effectively lower long-term borrowing costs [1] - Ozkardeskaya emphasizes that the Federal Reserve cannot lower rates arbitrarily, likening it to distributing candy at a party [1]