Core Insights - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation remains high but shows signs of moderation in certain key areas, despite being well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2][5] - The market anticipates a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with increased probabilities for another cut in December [2][6] Inflation Data Summary - The September CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, all slightly below market consensus expectations [1][2] - Key categories such as housing costs, which account for one-third of the CPI, showed minimal growth, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [5][6] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - The effects of tariffs and immigration policies are beginning to manifest, with household goods prices rising by 3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023, and audio-visual equipment prices increasing by 1.6%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The "super core" service inflation, excluding housing costs, accelerated by 0.35%, marking one of the highest levels this year [5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. Treasury prices surged, and stock futures rose, with major U.S. indices reaching all-time highs [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the CPI data may weaken the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance against interest rate cuts, allowing for a potential 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Government Shutdown Implications - The report was compiled before the government shutdown, which has led to warnings that the October CPI report may not be published, marking a historical first for the absence of official CPI data [3][8] - The White House has indicated that the inability to collect new price information due to funding shortages could create confusion for businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant delay in the release of economic reports, creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to show a rise in inflation, with projections indicating an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% [2][3] - The cumulative effects of high inflation over the past five years have significantly impacted consumers, particularly in food prices, which have risen by 24% from 2020 to 2024 [2][3] Inflation Trends - Economists anticipate a 0.4% increase in prices for common goods and services in September, marking the fastest annual inflation rate in over a year [2] - The rise in prices is attributed to various factors, including increases in gasoline, food, and tariffs on goods, as well as slower-than-expected declines in housing-related inflation [2][3] Consumer Impact - The rising costs of food and utilities are major pain points for many Americans, particularly affecting middle and low-income households [4] - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income individuals benefiting from rising stock markets and wages, while low-income households face a starkly different reality [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment [1] - The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for these reports, is significantly impacted by the shutdown, leading to potential longer delays in data collection and processing for October [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector data to evaluate the economy, but emphasized that this cannot replace government statistics, particularly for October data [1] Group 2 - High inflation typically necessitates the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while a slowing job market would push for rate cuts [2] - In August, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and well below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the job market [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department's release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown, impacting multiple important statistical data releases [1] - The Labor Statistics Bureau, as the official statistical agency, is affected by the shutdown, which may lead to longer delays in the release of October data collection and processing [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector economic data to assess the U.S. economy, but these cannot replace government statistics, especially for October data [1] Group 2 - The Labor Department's data for August shows that non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and far below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index for August rose by 2.9% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor is resuming work on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [1] - The CPI report is scheduled to be released on October 24, 2023, which is a 9-day delay from the original date of October 15 [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had previously suspended CPI reporting as part of the government shutdown emergency plan [1] Group 2 - The release of the September CPI data is critical for the Social Security Administration to calculate and announce the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) by November 1 [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has also affected the publication of other labor statistics, including the non-farm payroll report [1] - The timing of the CPI release coincides with the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC policy meeting on October 28-29, where interest rate decisions are anticipated [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Labor Department may delay the release of the next non-farm employment report due to a potential government shutdown [1] - The report, originally scheduled for October 3, includes critical data on monthly changes in non-farm employment [1] - The Senate did not pass a temporary budget, risking a government shutdown at the end of the fiscal year on September 30 [1] Group 1 - If the government shuts down, all data collection and scheduled releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease, affecting approximately 2,000 employees who will be furloughed [1] - The BLS is currently led by acting director William Wiatrowski until a new director is confirmed by the Senate [1] - The March plan indicates that the BLS website will not be updated during the shutdown, and any technical issues will not be addressed, potentially impacting the quality of future statistical estimates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are closely monitoring labor market data, as they recently decided to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025 due to signs of a cooling labor market [2] - Without the employment report, officials will rely on private sector data, which may not be as comprehensive as government statistics [2] - The delay in the employment report could also affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for October 15 and disrupt the Social Security Administration's announcements regarding cost-of-living adjustments for retirees [2]

Core Points - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing due to a stalemate between the two parties over spending issues, which could lead to a significant disruption in the release of key economic data [1][2] - If the government shuts down, major federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are expected to suspend operations, delaying critical reports such as employment data, CPI, PPI, and retail sales [1][3] - The Federal Reserve may find it challenging to assess economic conditions without the latest inflation and employment data, making it less likely to deviate from its previously established economic forecasts [1][4] Group 1 - The current fiscal year funding for the U.S. federal government will run out on September 30, and without congressional action, a government shutdown will begin on October 1 [2] - The political impasse is primarily due to irreconcilable differences between the two parties, with Republicans favoring a "clean" continuing resolution and Democrats seeking to reverse previous cuts to healthcare subsidies [2] - Unlike previous shutdowns, the debt ceiling is not a focal point in this situation, meaning there is no immediate risk of a technical default by the U.S. government [2] Group 2 - A government shutdown would create an "information vacuum" for the market, as the Labor Department and its agencies would likely close on October 1, affecting the release of key economic data [3][4] - Key reports that would be delayed include the employment report on October 4, CPI on October 15, PPI on October 16, and retail sales on October 16, along with the preliminary GDP for Q3 on October 30 [3] - Some data, such as industrial production reports from the Federal Reserve and private sector data, will not be affected by the shutdown [3] Group 3 - If the shutdown extends, the Federal Reserve will have limited access to top-tier official data, making it more likely to adhere to its September economic projections [4] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns can vary significantly in duration, impacting the timely release of economic data [4][5] - Even after the government reopens, statistical agencies may take considerable time to catch up on backlogged work, leading to further delays in data releases [5]

Group 1 - Global market investors are exhibiting a cautious sentiment due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, reflected in slight declines in major U.S. stock index futures [1][5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell approximately 0.1%, S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped by 0.2%, indicating investor sensitivity to upcoming economic and policy signals [5] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a slight easing of inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with a reason to remain inactive in the short term [5] Group 2 - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be crucial in determining whether inflation has a sustained downward momentum, which remains to be observed [5] - Uncertainty in policy direction is likely to increase short-term volatility in the dollar exchange rate, especially in an environment where interest rate expectations are not yet defined [5] - If inflation continues to decline, market expectations for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve may rise, potentially putting pressure on the dollar and leading to a short-term rebound in non-dollar currencies [5] Group 3 - The current earnings season is nearing its end, with tech giant Adobe set to release financial data this week, which may provide new valuation direction for the market [5] - Corporate earnings trends have a direct impact on stock market valuations and investor confidence, particularly in times of macroeconomic policy ambiguity and external uncertainty [5][6] - Traders are advised to closely monitor inflation data, consumer spending changes, and employment market dynamics, as these factors will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy path [6]