美国劳工统计局（BLS）表示，此次发布"将不包括由于10月数据缺失而导致的2025年11月环比百分比 变化"。由于政府停摆，该机构在11月下旬（即美联储今年最后一次会议前几周）取消了10月的通胀报 告。9月的CPI数据——即停摆期间唯一发布的经济数据，也是目前最新发布的报告——显示总体CPI和 核心CPI的年度读数均为3.0%。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯在接受采访时表示："'2字头'和'3字头'之间的心理差异将是至关重 要的。" 虽然共识预期显示该月年度通胀率将触及3%的门槛，但这位高级经济学家预计总体和核心读数将低于 预期，均为2.9%。不过他认为，总体通胀率可能的范围在2.9%到3.1%之间。 如果报告显示读数为2.9%，这可能会为股市进入2026年提供一些积极动力。事实上，托雷斯认为，这 样的数字将为所谓的"圣诞老人行情"扫清障碍。他还认为，这将影响明年的利率前景——美联储预计明 年将有一次降息。 华尔街正焦急等待周四发布的11月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，这将是自上个月创纪录的美国政府停 摆结束以来，该时期的首份数据读数。 根据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，这份追踪民众为一系列商品和服务支付的平 ...

上月结束的史无前例的政府停摆，加剧了这种不确定性。联邦统计机构在停摆期间暂停了数据收集工 作，部分关键报告被推迟，另有一些则直接作废，让政策制定者难以看清经济全貌。 美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，目前的借贷成本"已处于中性利率估计区间的广泛范围内"，明年是否进一 步降息将取决于新的数据。 尽管投资者对本周发布延迟已久数据翘首以待，但他们可能需要等待更长时间才能看清美国经济的真实 状况。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布的两份关于就业和通胀的报告，将成为数月来反映经济走势的最佳参考 ——此前创纪录的政府停摆导致常规数据发布中断。但分析师警告，这些延迟发布的统计数据已存在偏 差，只能有限反映这一全球最大经济体的健康状况。 "我们仍处于迷雾之中，即将发布的数据聊胜于无，"毕马威美国（KPMG US）首席经济学家黛安·斯旺 克（Diane Swonk）表示，"但它不会是确定性的答案，因为它反映的是一个不断变化的经济，而且数据 本身仍不完整。" 上周，美联储在一场分歧严重的会议后投票决定将利率降至三年低点。这场会议暴露了央行内部的深层 裂痕——究竟该优先应对疲软的就业市场，还是逐步攀升的通胀。 "因此，想要从10月、11月或1 ...

美国劳工统计局（BLS）宣布，取消了其10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。该机构表示，它可以获取本月的 大部分非调查数据，并将"在可能的情况下"在11月份的CPI报告中发布10月份的数值。但11月份的报告将不包括那 些缺失了10月份数据项目的11月份环比百分比变化。 （图/东方IC） 而近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策的担忧。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，"在大雾 中开车时，你会怎么做？你会减速……有可能在行动上采取更为谨慎的态度会更合理。" 而据路透社报道，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams） 于当地时间周五公开称，"我认为货币政策目前适度紧 缩……因此，我认为短期内仍有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间。"威廉 姆斯的新言论使投资者认为，美联储12月会议降息25个基点的可能性接近60%，这与此前因担忧通胀而强烈认为 美联储将暂停降息的预期截然相反。 值得注意的是，美联储12月议息会议结果公布是当月11日，此前11月非农就业报告改期至12月16日发布，这意味 着美联储官员在议息会议前无法获得关键的"11月CPI报告+非农就业报告。" ...

Core Insights - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation remains high but shows signs of moderation in certain key areas, despite being well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2][5] - The market anticipates a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with increased probabilities for another cut in December [2][6] Inflation Data Summary - The September CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, all slightly below market consensus expectations [1][2] - Key categories such as housing costs, which account for one-third of the CPI, showed minimal growth, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [5][6] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - The effects of tariffs and immigration policies are beginning to manifest, with household goods prices rising by 3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023, and audio-visual equipment prices increasing by 1.6%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The "super core" service inflation, excluding housing costs, accelerated by 0.35%, marking one of the highest levels this year [5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. Treasury prices surged, and stock futures rose, with major U.S. indices reaching all-time highs [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the CPI data may weaken the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance against interest rate cuts, allowing for a potential 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Government Shutdown Implications - The report was compiled before the government shutdown, which has led to warnings that the October CPI report may not be published, marking a historical first for the absence of official CPI data [3][8] - The White House has indicated that the inability to collect new price information due to funding shortages could create confusion for businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant delay in the release of economic reports, creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to show a rise in inflation, with projections indicating an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% [2][3] - The cumulative effects of high inflation over the past five years have significantly impacted consumers, particularly in food prices, which have risen by 24% from 2020 to 2024 [2][3] Inflation Trends - Economists anticipate a 0.4% increase in prices for common goods and services in September, marking the fastest annual inflation rate in over a year [2] - The rise in prices is attributed to various factors, including increases in gasoline, food, and tariffs on goods, as well as slower-than-expected declines in housing-related inflation [2][3] Consumer Impact - The rising costs of food and utilities are major pain points for many Americans, particularly affecting middle and low-income households [4] - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income individuals benefiting from rising stock markets and wages, while low-income households face a starkly different reality [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment [1] - The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for these reports, is significantly impacted by the shutdown, leading to potential longer delays in data collection and processing for October [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector data to evaluate the economy, but emphasized that this cannot replace government statistics, particularly for October data [1] Group 2 - High inflation typically necessitates the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while a slowing job market would push for rate cuts [2] - In August, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and well below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the job market [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department's release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown, impacting multiple important statistical data releases [1] - The Labor Statistics Bureau, as the official statistical agency, is affected by the shutdown, which may lead to longer delays in the release of October data collection and processing [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector economic data to assess the U.S. economy, but these cannot replace government statistics, especially for October data [1] Group 2 - The Labor Department's data for August shows that non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and far below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index for August rose by 2.9% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor is resuming work on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [1] - The CPI report is scheduled to be released on October 24, 2023, which is a 9-day delay from the original date of October 15 [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had previously suspended CPI reporting as part of the government shutdown emergency plan [1] Group 2 - The release of the September CPI data is critical for the Social Security Administration to calculate and announce the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) by November 1 [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has also affected the publication of other labor statistics, including the non-farm payroll report [1] - The timing of the CPI release coincides with the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC policy meeting on October 28-29, where interest rate decisions are anticipated [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Labor Department may delay the release of the next non-farm employment report due to a potential government shutdown [1] - The report, originally scheduled for October 3, includes critical data on monthly changes in non-farm employment [1] - The Senate did not pass a temporary budget, risking a government shutdown at the end of the fiscal year on September 30 [1] Group 1 - If the government shuts down, all data collection and scheduled releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease, affecting approximately 2,000 employees who will be furloughed [1] - The BLS is currently led by acting director William Wiatrowski until a new director is confirmed by the Senate [1] - The March plan indicates that the BLS website will not be updated during the shutdown, and any technical issues will not be addressed, potentially impacting the quality of future statistical estimates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are closely monitoring labor market data, as they recently decided to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025 due to signs of a cooling labor market [2] - Without the employment report, officials will rely on private sector data, which may not be as comprehensive as government statistics [2] - The delay in the employment report could also affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for October 15 and disrupt the Social Security Administration's announcements regarding cost-of-living adjustments for retirees [2]

Core Points - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing due to a stalemate between the two parties over spending issues, which could lead to a significant disruption in the release of key economic data [1][2] - If the government shuts down, major federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are expected to suspend operations, delaying critical reports such as employment data, CPI, PPI, and retail sales [1][3] - The Federal Reserve may find it challenging to assess economic conditions without the latest inflation and employment data, making it less likely to deviate from its previously established economic forecasts [1][4] Group 1 - The current fiscal year funding for the U.S. federal government will run out on September 30, and without congressional action, a government shutdown will begin on October 1 [2] - The political impasse is primarily due to irreconcilable differences between the two parties, with Republicans favoring a "clean" continuing resolution and Democrats seeking to reverse previous cuts to healthcare subsidies [2] - Unlike previous shutdowns, the debt ceiling is not a focal point in this situation, meaning there is no immediate risk of a technical default by the U.S. government [2] Group 2 - A government shutdown would create an "information vacuum" for the market, as the Labor Department and its agencies would likely close on October 1, affecting the release of key economic data [3][4] - Key reports that would be delayed include the employment report on October 4, CPI on October 15, PPI on October 16, and retail sales on October 16, along with the preliminary GDP for Q3 on October 30 [3] - Some data, such as industrial production reports from the Federal Reserve and private sector data, will not be affected by the shutdown [3] Group 3 - If the shutdown extends, the Federal Reserve will have limited access to top-tier official data, making it more likely to adhere to its September economic projections [4] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns can vary significantly in duration, impacting the timely release of economic data [4][5] - Even after the government reopens, statistical agencies may take considerable time to catch up on backlogged work, leading to further delays in data releases [5]