59 61 63 65 67 69 71 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 聚烯烃 2025年第三季度复盘 求和项:PP主力合约价格 求和项:LLDPE主力合约价格 求和项:WTI现货 OPEC+增产预期压缩成本端，叠加PP新装置投产，聚烯烃弱 基差+高仓单压制下，行情走势偏弱 反内卷预期主导行情，聚烯 烃周期7月下旬迎来一波反 弹 聚烯烃 01合约投产 聚烯烃季报 | | | | | 2025年PE投产表 | | | | | | | | PP投产进度--国产 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 企 业 | | LLDPE HDPE | 全 密 度 | LDPE | LDPE/ EVA | PE合计 | 预计投产时间 | 投产时间 | 地 区 | 省 份 | 企 业 | 生产路径 | 产 能 | 预计投产时 间 | | | 万华化学 | | | | 2 5 | | 2 5 | 2025年 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - On May 20, 2025, the main contracts of plastic and PP in the futures market closed down. The supply side has short - term pressure due to intensive upstream petrochemical maintenance, and the demand side has weak downstream indicators. Although there may be some improvement in demand, the polyolefin market is mainly digesting the previous gains [5][7]. Market Quotes Futures Market - L2509 of plastics opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7222 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.33%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,179 to 511,907 lots. PP2509 closed at 7047 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan (-0.65%), and the open interest increased by 12,000 lots to 426,777 lots [5][7]. - Other contracts such as plastic 2601, 2605, PP2601, and PP2605 also showed different degrees of decline [7]. Spot Market - The domestic PP market continued to operate weakly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The PE market price continued to decline slightly, with different price changes in different regions and varieties [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Upstream petrochemical maintenance is intensive, and the short - term supply pressure is obvious. The maintenance loss is at a high level compared with the same period. PE plans to add 700,000 tons of production capacity from May to June, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. PP has no production plan in May, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's plant in June [5]. Demand Side - The demand for agricultural films has changed from strong to weak, and the operating loads of packaging, film, injection molding, etc. have decreased month - on - month. The indicators of PP downstream fields are weaker than those of the same period last year. Some enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have resumed operation, and the phenomenon of rush - export within the 90 - day buffer period may drive the demand to improve [5]. Future Outlook - As the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP have risen and then fallen back. There is still pressure in the upper gap. Although the spot atmosphere has warmed up, the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of orders from downstream product manufacturers remains to be seen, and polyolefins are mainly digesting the previous gains [5].