1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is likely to be weak. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, while the terminal is gradually transmitting negative feedback upwards. Eventually, the contradiction may be resolved through the negative feedback of the polyester sector. However, due to the profit and low - inventory cushions of mainstream fiber varieties, the game will continue for some time. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. Although the fundamental data of short fiber is good, the processing fee valuation is generally high, and positions for compressing the processing fee should be held, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [3][8][9]. - Bottle chips: They are expected to be weak in a volatile manner. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying, similar to short fiber. In December, the actual supply of bottle chips increases, but the downstream load rebounds. Some factories plan early maintenance in mid - to late January to deal with potential high inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation improves marginally, and investors can take long positions in the positive spread at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Short Fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Supply - Factory operation is maintained at a high level, with an average operation rate of 95.5%. The operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning has dropped to 96.8% (the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Gaoxin is under maintenance until the end of the month) [9]. 3.1.2 Demand - Domestic demand for terminal orders is weakening. The yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are continuing to reduce their loads. The grey fabric situation is slightly worse than last year, but the rest are still acceptable. The future demand outlook is weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. In the second half of the week, raw material prices rose sharply, but the terminal had difficulty following up. The physical inventory is high, and raw material inventory procurement is moderately low. Downstream enterprises are expected to maintain the rhythm of replenishing inventory according to rigid demand, waiting for the absolute low price [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory transfer of short fiber is relatively smooth, with a slight inventory reduction. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3 days, and the physical inventory is 14.7 days [9]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current spot processing fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is high; the futures processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, also high [10]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads at low prices and enter the market when the valuation is reasonable. - Inter - variety: Hold long positions in PX/TA and short positions in PF in the short - term, and take profits in time in case of cost fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Bottle Chips (PR) 3.2.1 Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory operation rate is expected to be generally around 80%. This week, the operation rate is 80.8%. After mid - December, the factory operation rate may increase again (Huarun Zhuhai plans to increase its load in late December). The production of Fuhai's 300,000 - ton unit is postponed again, and it is expected to produce products by the end of the month [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - The off - season for demand continues, and the increase in the operation rate due to year - end inventory replenishment has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also declined. The export volume from November to December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September to October. Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of bottle chip factories has dropped to just over 14 days [11]. 3.2.3 Valuation - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is moderate; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 380 - 390 yuan/ton, slightly low [11]. 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Take profits on reverse spreads and take long positions in positive spreads at low prices (for contracts after March). - Inter - variety: Take profits on reducing the processing fee [11]. 3.3 Other Information 3.3.1 Sino - US Negotiations - The negotiation result is that the fentanyl tariff is reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The United States may import about one - month's worth of goods in advance, and considering the consumption from May to September, there may still be about half a month's worth of imports left. There is still room for advance imports from November to December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import outlook for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [12]. 3.3.2 New Capacity in 2026 - For bottle chips, the domestic capacity to be put into operation with relatively high certainty in 2026 is only the 400,000 - ton unit of Keson and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [14]. - For short fiber, there are mainly two units in China in 2026: the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton unit of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton unit of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect the spun - lace sector (due to potential production conversion), putting greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [17]. 3.3.3 Short Fiber Export - The direct export of short fiber is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to move overseas, and the proportion of garment exports from Southeast Asia is high. The production capacity in other regions such as Pakistan and Egypt has also increased, supporting the direct export of short fiber. From the export data of short fiber from January to September 2025, the export growth rates in other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changing trade conditions. The exemption from the Indian BIS certification has boosted exports in the short - term, but the export growth rate of short fiber is already very high, and the main impact is on the filament sector [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Bottle Chip Market - **Basis and monthly spread**: In the second half of the week, the raw material prices rose sharply, the futures price followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [25]. - **Spot price and important spreads**: The absolute price rebounded, but the trading volume was average. This week, the transaction price was in the range of 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton; the FOB price was in the range of 750 - 775 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The cost - performance ratio of bottle chips compared to general plastics such as PP is still high, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][29][30]. - **Production and operation**: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). This week, the bottle chip load is 80.5% [33]. - **Raw materials**: The PTA unit has reduced its load, and the processing fee is at a low level. The coal - based ethylene glycol unit has significantly reduced its load, and the port inventory is increasing [44][47]. - **Cost and profit**: The polymerization cost is about 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, reflecting a relatively high level of export profit [51]. - **Inventory**: Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has dropped to around 14 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and in December it is estimated to be 3.44 million tons [57]. - **Device changes**: The 600,000 - ton unit of Zhuhai Huarun has restarted (not included in this week's load). In late January 2026, a 1.2 - million - ton unit in Jiangyin is expected to be shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton unit of Tenglong reduced its production to around 85% in mid - November, and the original plan to operate at full capacity around December 10 has been postponed to around late December. The 350,000 - ton unit of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to carry out corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton unit of Fuhai was fed on December 16 and is expected to produce products next week [63][64]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of downstream industries has rebounded month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage enterprises has slightly rebounded to between 70% and 90%, with some areas slightly higher or lower. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50% - 70%, and in South China it is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil factories is between 60% and 80%, with some areas slightly higher or lower [68][69]. - **Global trade flow**: Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased very little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and the United States also has bottlenecks in cost and supply volume. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, etc. for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [82]. - **Export situation**: According to customs data, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices in September 2025 was 551,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Short - term concerns include: (1) the impact of the US removing bottle chips from the tariff exemption list on the re - export of bottle chips from countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, which may indirectly affect China's export volume; (2) the increasing proportion of Chinese bottle chip imports in the southern hemisphere regions such as Africa this year, and the approaching summer in these regions provides support for exports from November to December [89]. 3.3.5 Short - fiber Market - **Valuation**: The basis is volatile, the inter - month relationship remains in contango, and the near - month contract is gradually flattening [101]. - **Operation rate**: The operation rate of short - fiber factories is high. The short - fiber load has dropped to around 95.5% but still remains at a high level. This week, the operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 97% [110]. - **Polyester inventory**: As raw material prices rise, the price increase of polyester products lags behind, and the inventory is mainly reduced slightly [114]. - **Polyester export**: In October, the year - on - year export of polyester continued to grow, but the month - on - month performance was divergent [119]. - **Polyester profit**: The profit of filament is relatively weak [121]. - **Short - fiber downstream**: The operation rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [129]. - **Weaving operation**: The operation rate has decreased slightly [131]. - **Weaving inventory**: The raw material inventory procurement has decreased slightly. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in the Yangtze River Delta has decreased slightly. This week, only some areas such as Ningbo have effectively increased their inventory, while the rest of the areas are mainly engaged in scattered procurement. There are discussions on large - volume orders, but there is a lack of actual transactions, and the supply and demand sides are in a price game. Currently, the inventory of production factories is mainly concentrated at 5 - 7 days. The grey fabric orders are generally weak, and the fabric price is declining. The new orders in the weaving sector are generally weak, with only some improvement in foreign trade, and domestic sales are relatively more sluggish. The overall grey fabric inventory is still increasing. The price of conventional grey fabric varieties continues to decline, the nominal cash flow of grey fabric is weakening, and the losses are obvious [137][139]. - **Chinese textile and clothing retail**: In November, it increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [141]. - **Textile and clothing export**: In November, the month - on - month export decreased [149].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本终端矛盾加剧 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工95.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开机率回落至96.8%（恒逸高新25万吨检修至月底） 需求 内需终端订单走弱，纱线、织造、坯布环节继续降负，坯布略差于去年其余尚可，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假，下 半周原料大涨，终端跟涨较难，实物库存偏高。原料备库中性偏低，后续下游预计保持刚需补库节奏，等待绝对价格低位。短纤库存传导较顺 利，小幅去 ...