直纺短纤负荷(周) 90. 60% 0. 01 91. 10% 涤纶短纤产销 -3.00% 40. 00% 37.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 62.00% 62. 80% 0. 01 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 49.50% 49.00% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 (零收) 配日员(左特) T325纯涤动价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 舞想坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 10000 2500 22500 4000 条棉纱利润 泽棉纱65/35 45 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance period. Market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. Overall polyester inventory is not high, and polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4825 to 4750, a decrease of 75 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4503 to 4480, a decrease of 23 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Spread Changes of Polyester Staple Fiber - Short fiber basis increased from 136 to 140, an increase of 4 [2] - The 8 - 9 spread increased from 18 to 48, an increase of 30 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber decreased from 900 to 850, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Processing Fee Changes of Polyester Bottle Chips - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price dropping by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The domestic and foreign prices of various types of bottle chips all decreased, and the bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 386 to 359, a decrease of 26.83 [2] Price and Profit Changes of Polyester Yarn - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300, and the processing fee increased from 3650 to 3700, an increase of 50 [2] - The price of polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300, and the profit increased from 1297 to 1335, an increase of 38.82 [2] Load and Production and Sales Changes - Direct-spun staple fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decrease of 0.01. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 43.00% to 50.00%, an increase of 7.00%. Polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decrease of 0.01. The regenerated cotton-type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decrease of 0.06 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for short - fiber (PF) is "oscillating weakly" [8] - The investment rating for bottle chips (PR) is "oscillating weakly" [5] Report's Core View - For short - fiber, market sentiment premium is released, and it shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. Although downstream demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August, and the factory profit is near the cash - flow cost with neutral inventory, the tariff will still have an impact on exports in the medium - to long - term. In the future, there is limited room for further increasing production, and the processing fee is expected to expand as the peak demand season approaches [9] - For bottle chips, market sentiment premium is released, and it also shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. After the production cut, the spot processing fee is still below the factory target. The demand support is strong, and the export disturbance is alleviated. However, there are pressure factors in the future, such as the increase in production after the end of the production cut and the demand situation in September - October [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market is 850 - 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee below 900 yuan/ton is undervalued, and there is an upward momentum when the demand is expected to improve [10] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: Based on low processing fees and inventory pressure, factories maintain high - level production. The average factory operating rate this week is 90.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber for spinning is 94.7%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [9] - **Demand**: The operating rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out and is rising, but the short - term demand is still weak, and the short - fiber inventory has slightly accumulated. The 1.4D equity inventory is 10.4 days, and the physical inventory is 22.4 days. The demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PTA, and go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [11] Bottle Chips (PR) Upstream View Summary - The "anti - involution" policy may lead to cost increases, but has little impact on the supply of bottle chips due to the relatively small number of old - generation devices [12][17] Valuation and Profit - The current processing fee is 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is moderately low and below the break - even line of most factories. It is expected to rise slowly as the spot supply tightens [13] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: After the production cut, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production - cut level until late August or the end of August. The total production capacity involved in the production cut by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons, and it has been fully implemented. The current operating rate is 79% [12] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream industries remains high, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices. After the full implementation of the production cut, the bottle - chip inventory is expected to decline slightly from July to August. The factory inventory this week is about 18 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [12] Strategy - **Unilateral**: There is pressure in the trend - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [14] Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has decreased, and this week it is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee of bottle chips has remained stable this week, at around 380 - 400 yuan/ton. The export profit is oscillating weakly, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [54] Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is 17.6 days (CCF data). The estimated social inventory at the end of June, July, and August is 3.07 million tons, 3 million tons, and 2.83 million tons respectively [59] Device Changes - The production cut is expected to last until late August or the end of August. For example, Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down 600,000 - ton production capacity for maintenance from July 5th for about one and a half months, and Yisheng Hainan has gradually shut down 1.25 - million - ton production capacity for maintenance since July 1st [65] Demand - **Downstream industries**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate has changed little. The operating rate of beverage enterprises has increased to 95 - 100%, the average operating rate of edible - oil enterprises is around 70 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet - material industries in East China is around 60 - 80% and 40 - 60% in South China [69] - **Consumption situation**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage - category commodity retail sales is 0.6%. The consumption of beverages and edible oils is generally weak, which is related to the high base last year and the crowding - out effect of optional consumption on essential consumption [75] Export Situation - In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices is 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 3.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. Short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam and the impact of the Turkish SASA's production on local exports [88] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, the supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and inventory will start to accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions include that the production cut may last until the end of August, and new capacity will be put into operation in September. Demand assumptions include that downstream demand is estimated to increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and export demand is expected to recover in August [100][102]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 上游观点汇总 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 03 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 | 供应 | 工厂新增减产不多，加工费高于成本叠加实物库存不高使得工厂减产意愿普遍不强。本周工厂平均开工率90.6%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工94.7%， | | --- | --- | | | 未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反内卷措施对上游可能的影响。"反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽 | | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 02 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 CONTENTS 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 01 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 | 供应 | 工厂新增减产不多，加工费高于成本叠加实物库存不高使得工厂减产意愿普遍不强。本周工厂平均开工率90.6%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工94.7%， | | --- | --- | | | 未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反内卷措施对上游可能的影响。"反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽 | | ...