随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损不断加深，存栏去化有望进一步深化，原奶产量随之实现下降。进口方面，国内大包粉仍有价格优 势，2026年进口量预计不会有显著增加。需求端看，乳制品产量已呈现边际改善，行业深加工产能即将 释放，出口大包粉及活牛的探索已逐渐落地，有望促进供需缺口进一步收窄。该行预计2026年奶价有望 实现企稳回升，届时上游牧场公司将直接受益。 全产业链龙头优势显著，肉奶价格共振有望贡献可观业绩弹性 开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国内牧场龙头，规模 优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保持增长。公司扩产 完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业绩弹性。该行预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国 内牧场龙头，规模优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保 持增长。公司扩产完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业 绩弹性。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、27.68亿元，EPS分别为-0.02、0.33、0.66 元，当前股价对应2026-2027年PE为13.1、6.5倍。 开源证券主要观点如下： 公司业绩弹性主要来自于原奶价格和肉牛价格的上涨，假设其他因素不变，经测算中性假设若行业奶价 上涨3.5%，公司毛利润实现增量4.6亿元，同时成母牛估值有望提升;若肉牛价格上涨10%，淘牛亏损将 收窄1.1亿元。 随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].