Group 1: Macro Liquidity and Economic Environment - The global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, characterized by "internal and external easing resonance" and a shift from "extraordinary to normal" conditions [2][5][61] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts by 50 basis points, with a resumption of balance sheet expansion in December 2025 to alleviate dollar financing pressures [2][5][61] - Domestic monetary policy is transitioning from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment" to "increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [10][61] Group 2: Currency and Stock Market Dynamics - The weakening of the dollar due to continued Fed rate cuts and deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions is expected to support the appreciation of the RMB, which may rise from 7.0 to 6.8 against the dollar [14][17][61] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to enhance foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, improve market risk appetite, and boost corporate profitability, thereby supporting the A-share market [17][61] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping stock and bond allocation strategies, with a shift towards "fixed income plus" products and increased attractiveness of equity markets [20][21][62] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to guide funds into equity markets, further supporting A-share performance despite potential long-term interest rate rebounds [25][62] Group 4: Capital Market Policy and Structural Changes - The capital market's status is significantly upgraded in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation [4][32][63] - Policies are being implemented to enhance shareholder returns, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and improving the quality of earnings, leading to a more balanced funding ecosystem [45][63] Group 5: Household Savings and Market Impact - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is expected to become a significant marginal increment in the market as a large volume of fixed-term deposits matures in 2026 [3][29][62] - As of November 2025, household deposits in China exceeded 163 trillion yuan, with excess deposits potentially reaching 60 trillion yuan based on historical trends [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the global interest rate cut cycle will enter its second half in 2026, characterized by "synchronized internal and external easing" and a transition from "extraordinary to normal" macro liquidity conditions [1] Group 1: Macro Environment - The US dollar is under pressure, while the appreciation of the Chinese yuan supports a strong performance in A-shares [1] - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping the logic of stock and bond allocation, with the mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect further supporting A-share trends [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for "deposit migration" among residents may become the largest marginal increment for the market [1] - In the post-real estate era, the capital market's status is upgraded to become a core hub for economic development and resource allocation, continuously optimizing the market funding ecosystem [1] - This foundation is set for the high-quality development of the capital market [1]