今年以来，白银价格大幅上涨，主要受到三大核心因素驱动：一是全球白银市场长期存在供应缺口，显 性库存持续下降至危险水平；二是美国关税政策引发市场对实物供应的担忧，加剧库存转移与挤仓压 力；三是美联储进入降息周期，提升市场流动性及风险偏好，强化了白银的金融属性。 值得注意的是，明年年初彭博商品指数和标普高盛商品指数调参可能会带来被动管理资金的抛压，预计 分别占黄金和白银总持仓的2.6%和8.6%。虽然绝对规模上黄金卖盘（约50亿美元）大于白银卖盘（约 40亿美元），但是相较黄金的市场体量而言，白银市场体量相对偏低，受调参的影响预计会大于黄金。 中期来看，白银的价格锚依然是黄金。在全球依然处于降息周期以及逆全球化暗流涌动的宏观背景下， 贵金属板块整体上行趋势有望延续。在此周期中，白银的价格波动幅度通常大于黄金，往往具备更高的 配置收益潜力，这也意味着白银可能面临比黄金更大的短期回撤风险。因此，中期有意参与白银市场的 交易者需要有更强的风险承受能力和仓位管理意识。 长期来看，除投资需求外，白银的工业需求为价格提供了坚实的基本面支撑。光伏、新能源汽车、AI 算力服务器及5G通信等领域的用银量保持强劲增长，其中光伏产业的 ...

2025.12.24 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国内钯 金期货主力合约涨停。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约价格最 高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别创出新高 675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪铜期货主力合约最 高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期大涨。 顾冯达也称，全球降息周期开启及美元指数整体走弱，全球流动性相对宽松之下，中美在科技、经贸领 域竞争激发资金涌入贵金属及有色金属等战略性资源品布局避险，尤其是在AI、电力、新能源、高端 装备制造等带来的新兴需求崛起，以及全球经贸遭遇美国贸易战的逆流冲击之下，国内也启动"反内 卷"政策规范行业竞争，战略资源品出口管制强化资源战略价值。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘政 治、产业周期 ...

年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国内钯 金期货主力合约涨停。 贵金属及有色金属在供应侧刚性限制、需求弹性刺激之下集体创出历史新高。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约价格最 高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别创出新高 675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪铜期货主力合约最 高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期大涨。 12月24日，伦敦金现货价格突破4500美元/盎司，截至发稿（下同）最高冲至4525.83美元/盎司，国内沪 金期货主力合约2602也创出历史新高1022.88元/克，最终以1014.68元/克收盘，涨幅为0.63%。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘政 治、产业周期的扰动，资金逐利共同推动的。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达也称，2025年金属板块的强势 表现源于宏观金融政策与供需结构性变化形成利多共振 ...

Group 1 - Global precious metal prices have seen significant fluctuations this year, with gold and silver reaching historical highs, and palladium and platinum futures recently experiencing substantial increases [1] - As of December 22, global precious metals collectively rose, with London gold reaching $4420.47 per ounce, up over 68% year-to-date, and London silver hitting $69.45 per ounce, up nearly 140% year-to-date [2] - Domestic precious metals also surged, with palladium and platinum futures hitting daily limits, silver futures up 6.06% year-to-date, and gold futures surpassing 1000 yuan per gram, up 62.3% year-to-date [2] Group 2 - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to abundant liquidity and strong supply constraints, with metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium benefiting from these conditions [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3, with investment demand surging 47% year-on-year, accounting for 55% of total demand [4] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with a reported addition of 30,000 ounces in November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases [4] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched platinum and palladium futures on November 27, filling a gap in domestic derivatives, with prices for both metals rising sharply post-launch [5] - A report from Huachuang Securities suggests that the weakening of the dollar credit system and global central bank gold purchases will support long-term gold demand, with silver prices benefiting from supply-demand gaps [6] - In the A-share market, precious metal concept stocks have seen an average increase of 97.03% year-to-date, with several stocks, including Zhaojin Gold, rising over 100% [6] Group 4 - Zhaojin Gold has seen a cumulative increase of 247.61% this year, attributed to ongoing investments in its mining operations, which are expected to boost gold production in the coming years [7] - Despite the significant price increases, valuations of precious metal stocks are relatively high, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 33.12, although some stocks remain below 30 [7] - Zijin Mining has the lowest P/E ratio in the industry at 18.99, with strong performance in revenue and net profit growth, alongside ongoing expansion projects [7]

海外策略-2026 年港股&美股展望 20251217 摘要 发达市场在 2024-2025 年领涨，经济韧性强于新兴市场，预计 2026 年全球降息周期后半程，发达市场仍可能跑赢，美国、日本、韩国在半 导体周期中具吸引力。 美国经济虽消费边际走弱，但企业和地产投资有增量空间，小盘企业盈 利改善，预计美国经济可能从软着陆走向扩张，对美国经济持乐观态度。 中国经济物价是关键，预计明年中期 PPI 收窄，经济增长预期保持在 4.5%左右，政府政策指引将在明年下半年体现，对中国物价回升持中性 乐观态度。 中美科技发展形成共振，对全球科技产业产生深远影响。多数预测认为 美元将走弱，但因美国经济韧性较强且降息已被充分定价，美元不会大 幅走弱。 预计日本维持宽松货币政策，日元汇率大概率在 140-160 区间震荡。欧 洲经济预期不如美国，欧元未必一直走强，美元也不一定会大幅走弱。 港股 2025 年表现不错，但目前盘整，预计明年上半年美联储降息将提 升流动性，中美关系缓和及国内政策协同发力将支持港股上行。 美股 2026 年预计上涨 12%-13%，经济复苏和企业盈利增长是主要推 动因素，上半年关注科技板块，下半年看好顺 ...

Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Q&A 明年（2026 年）石化和化工行业的整体景气度如何？ 石化化工核心推荐方向更新 20251207 摘要 化工行业明年预计进入供需再平衡阶段，受益于全球降息周期催生的化 工品需求和海外部分产能退出，新兴需求领域如储能电池材料和生物航 空燃料将显著增长，带动相关材料复苏。 原油价格明年预计在 55~65 美元区间窄幅波动，利好下游油头化工、 炼化、炼油环节利润修复。海外裂解价差维持高位，副产物如硫磺、石 油焦利润水平较高，为国内炼厂提供利润附加值。 钾肥市场 2026 年大合同价格坚挺，国内库存较低，海外供应端价格上 涨。亚钾国际小东部矿区 100 万吨产能投放，预示明年量增长确定性强， 看好未来两年钾肥市场景气度。 MDI 价格近期上涨，受亨斯曼荷兰装置意外停车和国内企业检修计划影 响，供给端出现扰动，预计 12 月和 1 月 MDI 价格继续上涨。关注万华 化学、上海亨斯迈、重庆巴斯夫等企业动态。 磷矿石供给刚性且需求增加，资源稀缺性支撑高位运行。锂电产业链开 工率提升，六氟磷酸锂价格上涨。重点推荐川恒股份、云天化以及兴发 集团等企业。 近期 MDI 价格出现上涨，主要由于亨斯曼荷兰装置意外停车导致欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global interest rate cut cycle has begun, coupled with the surge in AI investment driving physical demand, leading to a significant increase in market funds' allocation towards strategic resources [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 2, the Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) has seen a year-to-date increase of 78.06% [1] - In the past 60 days, the ETF has attracted over 3.4 billion yuan in investments, with its latest scale reaching 6.167 billion yuan [1] - The scale of the ETF has grown nearly 17 times this year, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2: Sector Composition - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, with the top three sectors being copper (31.06%), aluminum (22.44%), and rare earths (16.13%), collectively accounting for nearly 70% [1] - This ETF ranks first among all nonferrous metal indices tracked by ETFs in the market, making it the preferred tool for investors looking to allocate to core strategic resources [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for 英科再生 Company Overview - 英科再生 focuses on the recycling of plastic waste, preparation of recycled particles, and downstream product processing, forming a complete business structure through a full industry chain layout [4][2]. Industry and Market Position - The global recycled plastic market is projected to reach over $50 billion by 2024, with a low penetration rate of recycled materials at about 10% of the overall plastic market [13]. - The company has established a strong presence in overseas markets, with 89% of its revenue coming from international sales, primarily in Europe and the United States [11][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, the company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching approximately 2.3 billion yuan in net profit [6][2]. - The gross margin has experienced fluctuations due to raw material price volatility and depreciation of new bases, but is expected to stabilize and improve with the optimization of the business structure [6][9]. Key Business Segments - The main revenue-generating segments are finished frames (41% of total revenue) and decorative building materials (37% of total revenue), with the latter growing over 38% in the first half of the year [7][9]. - The decorative building materials segment is anticipated to become the largest business area, with a stable gross margin of 28%-32% [9][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting its focus in the recycled particle business towards exports to enhance profitability, while the environmental equipment segment serves as a strategic layout to stabilize upstream waste sources [10][2]. - The management team is stable, with the founder holding 40.65% of the shares, and a stock incentive plan has been introduced to bind key employees [12][2]. Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in the finished frame business and high growth in decorative building materials due to expansion in the European and American markets [3][8]. - Projections indicate revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 15.3%, and 16.2% from 2025 to 2027, with net profits expected to reach 300 million, 360 million, and 430 million yuan respectively [20][2]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a global production capacity advantage, with manufacturing bases in Vietnam and Malaysia, which are expected to enhance overall profitability [17][2]. - Strong R&D capabilities and a diverse product matrix allow the company to meet customized demands, particularly in the DIY market in Europe and the U.S. [14][16]. Governance and Management - The company emphasizes innovation and talent development, with a long-term growth expectation of around 15% CAGR from 2025 to 2029 [19][2]. Conclusion - Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth with a robust business model, strategic international expansion, and a focus on high-margin products, leading to a positive investment outlook [20][2].