Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that by 2026, the world will face a transformative "tsunami" rather than fleeting "windfalls," indicating a fundamental restructuring of underlying logic and permanent changes in the landscape of opportunities [2]. Group 1: Predictions and Trends - Renowned expert Ren Zeping will present "Top 10 Annual Predictions for 2026" during a four-hour event, aiming to distill complex phenomena into clear underlying logic and highlight unseen turning points [4]. - The article raises questions about the true drivers of the "confidence bull market" during a global interest rate reduction cycle and why the current era is seen as the starting point of an upward wave for the next decade [5]. - It discusses the notion that AI is not merely a trend but a "tsunami," with indicators of explosive growth in super applications [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The potential of AI as a super assistant for humans is explored, along with the implications of robots entering households and the resulting exponential leap in productivity [5]. - The article posits that advancements in autonomous driving could resolve traffic congestion, while AI doctors may help humanity surpass longevity limits [5]. - It highlights China's competitive edge in the AI race, leveraging its large market and supply chain advantages to catch up with global leaders [5]. Group 3: Societal Implications - The article addresses the challenges posed by the awakening of consciousness and employment disruptions, emphasizing the need to uphold the principle of "technology for good" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that by 2026, the world will face a transformative "tsunami" rather than fleeting "windfalls," indicating a fundamental restructuring of underlying logic and permanent changes in the landscape of opportunities [2]. Group 1: Future Predictions - Ren Zeping will present "Ten Major Predictions for 2026" during a four-hour lecture, aiming to distill complex phenomena into underlying logic and highlight unseen turning points [4]. - The discussion will cover the global interest rate cut cycle and identify the true drivers of the "confidence bull market" [5]. - It will explore why AI is not just a trend but a tsunami, marking the explosion of super applications [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The potential of AI as a super assistant and the impact of robots entering households will be discussed, focusing on how productivity can achieve exponential leaps [5]. - The implications of autonomous driving in alleviating congestion and the role of AI doctors in extending human lifespan will be examined [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - China is positioned to leverage its large market and supply chain advantages to excel in the AI competition [5]. - The article raises concerns about the awakening of consciousness and employment impacts, emphasizing the need to uphold the principle of "technology for good" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that by 2026, the world will face a transformative "tsunami" rather than fleeting "windfalls," indicating a fundamental restructuring of underlying logic and permanent changes in the landscape of opportunities [2]. Group 1: Future Predictions - Ren Zeping will present "Ten Major Predictions for 2026" during a four-hour lecture, aiming to distill complex phenomena into underlying logic and highlight unseen turning points [4]. - The discussion will cover the global interest rate reduction cycle and identify the true drivers of the "confidence bull market" [5]. - It will explore why AI is not just a temporary trend but a "tsunami," marking a significant shift in applications and productivity [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The potential of AI as a super assistant and the impact of robots entering households will be discussed, focusing on how productivity can achieve exponential growth [5]. - The implications of autonomous driving in alleviating congestion and the role of AI doctors in extending human lifespan will be examined [5]. - China's advantages in market scale and supply chain benefits will be analyzed in the context of the AI competition [5]. Group 3: Societal Implications - The article addresses concerns about job displacement due to technological advancements and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a "technology for good" principle [5]. - It highlights the need for individuals to adapt to the accelerating changes in the world, with some learning to harness these advancements while others fear being replaced [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of viewing the A-share market within a global context, highlighting three key factors that will create systemic opportunities for A-shares: external demand growth, increased global pricing power, and capital inflows from foreign exchange settlements [3][5]. Investment Themes - The core investment themes for A-shares in 2026 are identified as: 1. Commodities 2. Export chains related to electrical equipment 3. Recovery in consumer spending [4][7]. Global Market Dynamics - The article outlines three major variables affecting the global market: 1. The transition of AI from an industrial investment focus to a macroeconomic variable, with a shift in demand from computing power to physical resources like electricity and storage [5][6]. 2. The prolonged global interest rate cut cycle, influenced by structural changes brought about by AI, which is expected to create opportunities in financial assets and commodities [6]. 3. The industrial resonance in emerging markets, where resource-rich countries will require more electricity and physical assets to support their development [6]. Commodity Market Outlook - Commodities are highlighted as the most critical investment direction for the year, with a clear opportunity for resonance driven by AI's demand for physical resources and global monetary policy easing [7][8]. - The article suggests that the demand for resources will be driven by global economic recovery, with a shift in focus from China to a more global perspective on resource needs [13]. AI Industry Perspective - The AI industry is not expected to collapse or bubble but will experience valuation adjustments as the focus shifts from application layers to physical resource demands [11][12]. - The article argues that the current market dynamics reflect a transition where opportunities are moving towards sectors related to electricity and resources rather than just AI applications [11]. Consumer Spending Recovery - The article notes that consumer spending in China is entering a recovery phase, with signals indicating a potential bottoming out, driven by increased foreign exchange settlement volumes [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - For ordinary investors, the article advises focusing on professional funds or leading companies in the commodities sector, as they are likely to capture market opportunities without the risk of missing out [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market and commodity market experienced a surge followed by a decline, with significant emotional amplification observed. The resource sector became the main focus of the market, leading to increased trading volume, but a subsequent profit-taking wave caused a sharp drop in precious and base metals, impacting the equity market as well [1][8][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with resource sectors like non-ferrous metals and gold taking over as the short-term market leaders. However, the market is cautioned against high-level risks due to the lack of performance support in low-performing sectors like liquor and real estate [2][12][11] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending a focus on sectors that have undergone sufficient corrections, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and communications for the offensive side, while defensive opportunities may be found in dividend-paying sectors like banks [4][13] Group 2 - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, driven by expectations of increased liquidity and a shift of funds seeking safety from the equity market's volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the short term, although long-term challenges remain due to competition for capital from the commodity and equity markets [5][36] - The commodity market is under pressure after a period of rapid growth, with significant corrections observed in precious metals and other commodities. The report warns of potential volatility in the short term but notes that long-term demand for gold and industrial metals remains strong due to technological advancements [6][45][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dual innovation narrative in the equity market, as it is expected to drive future growth amid ongoing liquidity support and a global easing cycle [12][11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold and silver markets has been triggered by the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to significant price corrections after reaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Event Catalysts - The immediate cause of the gold price drop was Trump's nomination of the hawkish candidate, Waller, for the Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about tighter monetary policy and led to a sell-off in gold [4]. - The market's reaction was exacerbated by fears of a government shutdown, increasing liquidity concerns and risk aversion among investors [4]. - The underlying market structure was already fragile, with gold prices having surged to nearly $5,600 per ounce, and implied volatility reaching over 46%, indicating a high sensitivity to negative news [4]. Group 2: Short-term Volatility - Gold has entered a high volatility phase, with technical correction pressures, but extreme volatility often leads to concentrated selling pressure, potentially creating a rebound opportunity [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that after extreme volatility peaks, gold prices can experience significant fluctuations without necessarily indicating a trend reversal [6]. - The current market pricing of Waller's policies may be premature, as the feasibility of his hawkish stance amid economic pressures is uncertain [6]. Group 3: Long-term Logic - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by three core pillars: monetary easing, global de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks [7][10]. - The global interest rate cycle is expected to continue, with a projected easing period starting in September 2024, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7]. - Central banks are actively increasing gold reserves, with notable purchases from China and Poland, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [7][10]. Group 4: Investment Direction - Investors are encouraged to utilize gold ETFs and other investment tools to capitalize on market fluctuations and long-term trends [13]. - The gold ETF linked to physical gold is recommended for those seeking lower volatility, while gold stock ETFs may offer higher returns during price increases [13]. - For broader resource exposure, mining ETFs that cover various commodities are suggested, as they may provide strong profit potential amid resource scarcity [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [65] Core Views - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant performance, with a 17.64% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.59 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [16] - The precious metals sector has surged by 50.93%, while industrial metals and minor metals have increased by 18.14% and 14.96%, respectively, indicating a growing divergence within the sector [22] - The report highlights the potential for further price increases in industrial metals due to improving supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing global interest rate cuts [59] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 29, 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry has risen by 32.96% this month, leading all sectors [16] - The precious metals sector has seen a remarkable increase of 75.88% this month, while industrial metals have risen by 32.98% [22] Price Analysis - As of January 29, 2026, key prices include: - LME Copper: $13,705/ton - LME Aluminum: $3,233.50/ton - LME Lead: $2,011/ton - LME Zinc: $3,453/ton - LME Nickel: $18,520/ton - LME Tin: $54,500/ton [28] Precious Metals - As of January 29, 2026, COMEX Gold is priced at $5,410.80/oz, up $1,068.9 since the beginning of January, while COMEX Silver is at $115.79/oz, up $44.81 [38] Energy Metals - As of January 29, 2026, Lithium carbonate futures are priced at ¥164,800/ton, up ¥43,200 since early January, while Cobalt is at ¥446,100/ton, down ¥16,000 [43] Minor Metals - As of January 29, 2026, the rare earth price index is at 258.08, up 41.06 since early January, with Neodymium Oxide averaging ¥744/kg, up ¥136.5 [45] Company Announcements - Zijin Mining's second phase of the Giant Dragon Copper Mine has commenced production, expected to significantly increase copper output [55] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net profit of ¥369 million to ¥553 million for 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [54]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.30 points, indicating a positive market sentiment; however, over 3600 stocks declined while only about 1200 stocks rose, reflecting a "divergent" market trend [1][3] - The market is characterized by extreme polarization, where selecting the right sectors can lead to a bull market, while the wrong choices can result in a bear market [4][6] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw significant inflows, with precious metals like gold and silver experiencing substantial gains; gold prices recently surpassed $5200 per ounce, reaching a historical high [3][4] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector rose nearly 6%, while precious metals surged over 10%, with companies like China Gold hitting their fourth consecutive trading limit [3][4] - In contrast, technology stocks faced severe differentiation, with many high-flying stocks in AI and space photovoltaics seeing capital flight, while only a few semiconductor stocks remained resilient [3][9] Capital Flow Analysis - On January 28, major institutional funds experienced a net outflow of 35.475 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflows, primarily from the electric equipment, pharmaceutical, and electronics sectors [6] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metal sector attracted 10.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment focus [6] - Northbound capital, often referred to as "smart money," recorded a net inflow of 12.5 billion yuan, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment between domestic and foreign investors [6] Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence market dynamics, with investors closely monitoring any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments [6][7] - The first hour of trading post-meeting will be critical, with attention on trading volume and northbound capital movements as indicators of market sentiment [7] - The short-term support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is around 4130 points, with 4170 points serving as a psychological barrier; failure to maintain these levels could lead to further declines [7] Investment Strategy - In the current chaotic market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding impulsive trading based on market fluctuations [9] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, reducing exposure during rebounds and maintaining a level of patience to wait for more favorable opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market remains robust in 2026, with a notable rise in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil and gas, contrasting with the extreme growth style of 2025. These sectors are expected to be the most prominent during the current spring rally [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 28, the non-ferrous and oil and gas sectors led the market, with the non-ferrous ETF (Huatai-PB) rising by 3.72% and the oil and gas ETF (Huatai-PB) increasing by 3.24%, both reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous ETF tracks an index with a "gold and copper content" of 46%, making it a leader among similar indices [3]. Group 2: Global and Domestic Factors - The current spring rally in cyclical sectors is driven by multiple factors, including global macroeconomic conditions, expectations of A-share profit recovery, and capital inflows anticipating a recovery [2]. - From a global perspective, the expansion of dollar credit and frequent geopolitical conflicts have enhanced the monetary and safe-haven attributes of commodities, initiating a super cycle for commodities [2][3]. - Domestically, the market is expected to gradually shift towards high-performing companies, with improved corporate earnings anticipated to support the A-share market in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in fund allocation towards cyclical industries, with a 2.1 percentage point rise in the holding ratio of global-priced non-ferrous metals to 8.0%, reaching a historical high [3]. - The non-ferrous sector benefits from multiple favorable factors, including monetary easing, supply-side rigidity, and new demand drivers [3][15]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector includes all metals except ferrous metals, with gold, copper, and lithium being key components. The current rally is primarily driven by gold and copper [3][5]. - The copper market is expected to experience a significant supply-demand gap, with projections indicating a growing deficit over the next five years, enhancing the long-term outlook for copper prices [13][14]. Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector Dynamics - The oil and gas sector is supported by seasonal recovery, geopolitical premiums, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with oil prices reaching their highest levels since October of the previous year [16][19]. - The sector's high dividend yield, with the oil and gas ETF showing a 3.63% yield, significantly exceeds the Shanghai Composite Index's yield of 2.57% [19][24]. - The oil and gas sector is characterized by a focus on upstream and downstream industries, ensuring a concentrated investment in companies with quality reserves and stable dividend capabilities [21][22].

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue its oscillating adjustment in the short term, with major indices experiencing collective declines [2][3][11] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a significant drop in trading volume, as the total transaction amount in the two markets has shrunk to approximately 2.7 trillion [3][12] - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of performance expectations versus fundamental verification, particularly as the end of January approaches, which will see a peak in annual report forecasts [3][12] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has shown continued strength, driven by rising gold and silver futures, with five key factors contributing to this trend: the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, strong demand for gold from global central banks, a weakening dollar, and rising inflation concerns [9] - The report advises caution against chasing prices in the precious metals market after significant increases, suggesting short-term trading opportunities with stop-loss measures [9] Real Estate - The real estate sector has become active due to a series of supportive policies from central and local governments aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [10] - The report anticipates that ongoing policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics will boost the sector, with a focus on high-quality companies with land reserve advantages and those returning to stable growth [10] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive medium-term outlook for the market, citing a global interest rate cut cycle entering its second half and a favorable macro liquidity environment [3][12] - It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the short term, waiting for signs of market stabilization before adjusting strategies, while also identifying long-term investment opportunities in sectors with strong policy support and performance certainty [3][12]