Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market shows resilience with June excavator sales increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The export market remains strong, with excavator exports up by 19% year-on-year in June, supported by improving global investment sentiment [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing high demand, and domestic non-excavator segments are showing signs of recovery, enhancing profit certainty for manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, with domestic sales at 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase. Cumulative domestic excavator sales for the first half of 2025 were 65,637 units, up 22.9% year-on-year. Loader sales in June were 12,014 units, with domestic sales at 6,015 units, increasing by 14% year-on-year. The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector can achieve considerable growth throughout the year due to factors such as improved funding availability and ongoing replacement demand [1] Overseas Market - In June 2025, excavator exports totaled 10,668 units, a 19% year-on-year increase, while loader exports reached 5,999 units, up 9%. For the first half of 2025, cumulative excavator exports were 54,883 units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. Despite some downward pressure in regions like Europe and Russia, demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America remains strong. The anticipated reduction in tariff uncertainties is expected to boost market recovery [2] Profitability and Market Conditions - The report indicates that over 80% of profits for engineering machinery manufacturers come from overseas markets, with significant contributions from regions like Indonesia, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. The first half of 2025 saw a recovery in overseas demand, supporting manufacturer profits. Additionally, the domestic non-excavator segment is expected to recover, with profit margins projected to improve from 15% to 20% in 2025, reducing previous profit drag [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with 2-3 years of growth potential remaining. The overseas emerging market expansion is progressing well, maintaining high demand levels. Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, a leading comprehensive manufacturer, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to a stronger US dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - As of the latest report, spot gold has dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly decline of nearly 4%, marking the worst week since November of the previous year [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a reduction of approximately 58 basis points in interest rates by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, down from a peak expectation of 120 basis points during the height of panic in April [2][3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing global monetary easing, with central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, having already cut rates multiple times [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape, including developments in the US-Iran agreement and Russia-Ukraine talks, is expected to influence gold prices significantly in the coming week [3][6] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may experience a second bottom test, with key support levels identified around $3152 and $3140, while resistance is noted at $3210-3212 [4][6] Group 3 - The article outlines specific trading strategies for gold, recommending short positions around $3230-3235 and long positions on pullbacks to $3165-3170, with defined stop-loss levels [7][8] - It highlights the importance of managing positions effectively, especially for traders who may find themselves in losing positions, suggesting that timely analysis and adjustments are crucial for recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with prices reaching a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22, followed by a drop to $3123 per ounce on May 15, and a subsequent rebound, indicating a volatile market environment [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to the unexpected reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S., which has decreased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - Despite the recent drop of approximately 8% from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, gold prices have still increased by 20% since the beginning of the year, suggesting that the current decline is a normal adjustment rather than a cause for panic [3][4]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, has also contributed to the reduction in gold prices, as such conflicts typically drive up demand for gold [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent signals of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as indications from Iran regarding its nuclear program, have further diminished the demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [6][7]. - The ongoing geopolitical landscape, including conflicts in the Middle East, continues to influence gold prices, with the potential for future volatility depending on developments in these regions [7]. Economic Indicators - The direction of U.S. economic data and growth expectations will significantly impact gold prices, with improved economic indicators potentially leading to a decrease in gold demand [8]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, particularly regarding potential rate cuts, will also play a crucial role in shaping gold market dynamics [8][9]. Future Projections - Analysts have differing views on future gold prices, with some predicting a decline to as low as $2700 per ounce by the end of the year, while others maintain a bullish outlook, suggesting that gold could reach between $3100 and $3300 per ounce by 2025 [9][10]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency credit risks remains intact, with expectations of increased buying in the physical gold market following recent price declines [7][10].