来源：市场资讯 11月24日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金偏触底回升式震荡收跌，当周围绕着美联储对于12月降息预期升温 于下降等抉择，以及就业数据等好坏参半中震荡调整，但仍处于5-10周均线上方，暗示后市仍有在再度 走强的前景预期，但短期则偏向继续维持横盘震荡调整波动。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4084.59美元/盎司，连续走出触底回升形态，并于周二录得当周低点 3997.78美元，虽受到买盘支撑，一度转强触及当周高点4132.38美元，但动力未能持稳，而再度走低震 荡调整，于周五收于4064.80美元，周振幅134.6美元，收跌19.79美元，跌幅0.48%。 展望本周周一（11月24日）：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动，早盘延续上周五回升之力，以及 美联储"三把 手"鸽派发言令12月降息预期有所回暖，有所走强，但仍面临阻力压制，和其他众多美联储官员对于12 月降息泼冷水的打压。 另外，美元指数早盘走强反弹，也对其金价多头产生一定限制，整体来看，上周公布的9月非农就业数 据的表现强劲，以及多位美联储官员的不急于降息，削弱了12月降息概率，但同时也可视为利空出尽， 当下利空因素也短暂消失，将会令其金价短期将继续调整为主； ...

张尧浠：美联储降息前景仍在、金价震荡调整待走强 黄金市场上周：国际黄金偏触底回升式震荡收跌，当周围绕着美联储对于12月降息预期升温于下降等抉择，以及就业数据等好坏参半中震荡调整，但仍处 于5-10周均线上方，暗示后市仍有在再度走强的前景预期，但短期则偏向继续维持横盘震荡调整波动。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4084.59美元/盎司，连续走出触底回升形态，并于周二录得当周低点3997.78美元，虽受到买盘支撑，一度转强触及当周高点 4132.38美元，但动力未能持稳，而再度走低震荡调整，于周五收于4064.80美元，周振幅134.6美元，收跌19.79美元，跌幅0.48%。 历史也告诉我们，每一次在降息周期中的回调，最终都成了上车的最好机会。 展望本周周一(11月24日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动，早盘延续上周五回升之力，以及 美联储"三把手"鸽派发言令12月降息预期有所回暖，有所走强，但仍 面临阻力压制，和其他众多美联储官员对于12月降息泼冷水的打压。 另外，美元指数早盘走强反弹，也对其金价多头产生一定限制，整体来看，上周公布的9月非农就业数据的表现强劲，以及多位美联储官员的不急于降 息，削弱了12月降息概率，但 ...

投容大咖啡 all Beach 李德辉 在成长潜力 与合理估值之间寻求平衡 ——访摩根资产管理李德辉 在投资方法上，李德辉始终致力于在成长潜力与合理估值之间寻求最佳平衡点。他通过在不同估值水平 的资产之间进行均衡配置，力争将整体组合估值维持在合理区间，从而争取风险可控。 "当估值处于相对低位时，只要企业盈利能力保持稳定，低估值本身就构成了天然的安全边际。"李德辉 表示。这一理念在实际投资中得到了充分体现——即使在2022年市场大幅波动的环境下，他管理的基金 组合仍将整体估值控制在合理区间，展现出严格的投资纪律。 当然，李德辉对于企业基本面研究也有心得。他坚信，持续的优秀业绩终将在股价中得到体现，"只要 企业能够保持20%以上的盈利增长，市场最终会给予合理的估值认可"。 Choice数据显示，截至11月12日，李德辉管理的摩根慧选成长股票基金、摩根慧见两年持有期混合基 金、摩根智慧互联股票基金、摩根科技前沿混合基金近三年净值涨幅均超40%。 在投资方法上，李德辉始终致力于在成长潜力与合理估值之间寻求最佳平衡点。他通过在不同估值水平 的资产之间进行均衡配置，力争将整体组合估值维持在合理区间，从而争取风险可控。 " ...

港股科技板块"吸金" 多只相关ETF份额持续增长 ◎记者 王彭 进入四季度，港股市场震荡调整。截至11月19日，恒生科技指数10月以来回调逾10%。不过，Choice数 据显示，其间多只港股科技ETF仍获得资金大量涌入，规模持续攀升。 王麦琪 制图 ■投基论道 Choice数据显示，截至11月19日，10月以来多只港股科技ETF持续获得资金净流入。具体来看，华夏恒 生科技指数ETF份额增长93.28亿份，按照0.81元成交均价计算，合计获得75.6亿元资金净流入；华泰柏 瑞恒生科技ETF紧随其后，获得70.77亿元资金净流入。此外，天弘恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、 易方达恒生科技ETF均获超45亿元资金净流入。 该外资公募基金经理认为，这种调整为增量资金提供了布局时机。无论是代表新经济的成长股，还是具 备稳定现金流的红利股，港股市场都展现出更为显著的估值吸引力，形成了明显的"价值洼地"。这一巨 大的性价比优势，正驱动资金流向香港市场。 "公募基金正显著提升其产品的港股仓位，并将部分港股龙头买成核心重仓股。同时，私募等机构投资 者也广泛参与港股投资，港股已成为其增厚收益的重要来源。这股由内地机构主导、持 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，中泰证券（600918）研报称，看好有色板块全面牛市行情。1.工业金属：几个大 矿接连出现意外扰动带来明年全球铜矿增量的显著下修，海外缺电预期下电解铝供应扰动同样频发，需 求端传统需求受益于全球大的降息周期有望复苏，新能源需求虽增速下滑但占比持续上升，AI带来的 电力需求同样有望提供增量，工业金属将迎来宏观+基本面共振的时刻，看好铜铝商品价格持续上涨。 股票维度虽股价基本都在新高位置，但更多因为商品价格的上涨以及公司成长性的兑现，估值仍处于中 性偏低水平。2.能源金属：随着储能需求预期的持续上调，明年碳酸锂供需格局从原先的过剩预期大幅 改善，行业见底预期下权益端表现值得期待；刚果金实施出口禁令后钴价大幅上涨，且明年供应约束情 况下供需偏紧，价格仍有看涨预期；3.贵金属：海外货币超发及财政纪律性持续减弱的背景下美元信用 体系的重塑已经成为趋势，金价长牛逻辑仍然没有改变。股票端的表现显著落后于持续新高的金价，当 前股票估值水平处于历史低位，迎来较好布局时刻。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][17]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a significant increase, with a 3.70% rise over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.72 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The energy metals sector has experienced a notable increase of 8.72%, while precious metals have seen a decline of 9.37% [19][22]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have contributed to the upward trend in metal prices [51][67]. Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 79.55% year-to-date, leading the market performance among all sectors [13][19]. - The industrial metals segment is benefiting from a global easing cycle, with copper and aluminum prices gradually recovering [68]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown volatility, influenced by changes in investor sentiment and central bank purchasing trends [37][67]. Price Analysis - Key prices as of October 30, 2025: - LME Copper: $10,930/ton - LME Aluminum: $2,870/ton - LME Lead: $2,022/ton - LME Zinc: $3,044.50/ton - LME Nickel: $15,250/ton - LME Tin: $35,720/ton [26][68]. - For precious metals: - COMEX Gold: $4,038.30/oz (up $145.7 since early October) - COMEX Silver: $48.73/oz (up $1.31 since early October) [37][67]. Sector Performance - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the industry: - Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [70]. - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) in the small metals sector [68][70]. - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium carbonate, is highlighted for its potential growth due to advancements in energy storage and solid-state battery technologies [69].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing factors such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policy, stable corporate earnings, and valuation advantages in certain markets [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a rebound due to its low valuation and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Gold - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold's strength remains intact, driven by demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and inflation [5][6]. - Short-term technical pressures may affect gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global uncertainties that bolster safe-haven demand [6][7]. - The gold sector is viewed as a strong investment choice due to multiple converging factors, including concerns over global trade policies and a weakening dollar, which enhances gold's investment appeal [6][7]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to economic growth during the inflation cycle [7]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is expected to support coal prices, making it a sector worth monitoring [7]. Group 4: Balanced Strategy - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [8]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of diversifying across global markets to reduce single-market risks while focusing on structural opportunities in equity markets [8][9]. - The proposed allocation includes a core focus on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, with satellite investments in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [9].

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the optimistic outlook for Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector, amidst a global trend of investment diversification and a consensus on the value of gold as a hedge [2][16]. Group 1: Market Performance and Economic Insights - The A-share market's strong performance is attributed to a decline in risk premiums rather than improvements in corporate earnings, indicating improved market expectations [4]. - The current bull market is believed to have entered its second phase, driven by fundamental improvements in technology sectors, with a focus on value sectors like real estate and consumer goods [7][9]. - The global economic outlook suggests a slowdown in GDP growth from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, with inflation rates expected to remain stable, providing central banks with policy flexibility [12]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investment in Chinese assets is expected to increase, particularly in high-tech sectors such as AI, automation, and biotechnology, as global investors recognize the potential for growth [10][22]. - A diversified approach to global stock markets is recommended, with a preference for U.S. stocks due to their scale and quality, while being cautious of trade uncertainties that could impact market stability [19]. - The consensus among economists is to increase allocations in gold as a strategic asset, with expectations of at least a 5% price increase due to historical performance during rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [17][18]. Group 3: Regional Market Analysis - In the U.S. market, there is a preference for high-quality and cyclical stocks, while in Japan, companies benefiting from domestic inflation and governance reforms are favored [19][20]. - European markets face growth challenges, with a projected GDP growth of only 1% in 2025, suggesting a focus on resilient sectors like defense and banking [20]. - Emerging markets are viewed favorably for domestic-oriented companies and financial stocks, while exporters and semiconductor hardware firms are advised against [21].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade tensions on the stock market, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Hong Kong markets [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Impact**: The government shutdown is expected to reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% weekly, with potential implications for employment rates due to Trump's layoff strategy [2][5]. - **Trade Tensions**: Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which could increase inflation risks in the U.S. and hinder further interest rate cuts [2][3]. - **Market Reactions**: Recent data shows developed markets fell by 0.9%, while emerging markets rose by 3%. The Dow Jones dropped nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively [2]. - **Hong Kong Market Outlook**: The Hong Kong market is expected to trend upwards in the medium to long term, supported by global easing cycles, the potential of tech leaders, and advantages in China's AI development [2][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **AI Bubble Concerns**: There is a growing discussion about the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, with the IMF warning of potential risks of a market correction [7][8]. - **Upcoming Events**: Key upcoming events include the release of U.S. CPI data, Oracle's AI World conference, and the court ruling on the legality of U.S. tariffs, which could significantly influence market trends [7][12]. - **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: Foreign investment in Chinese assets has weakened in the short term, but positive economic signals from the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session could attract renewed interest [10]. Future Market Predictions - **U.S. Market**: Short-term volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to strong economic fundamentals and potential policy changes [11][12]. - **Hong Kong Market**: The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, driven by easing monetary policies and improving economic fundamentals in the first quarter of the following year [9][12].

Group 1: Market Environment Differences - A-shares tend to drop more when they are more expensive, but they also rebound more significantly afterward, indicating a value-driven market[2] - U.S. stocks exhibit panic selling regardless of valuation, with the most expensive stocks rebounding the most during recovery phases, indicating a high-risk preference[2] - As of October 2, the dynamic P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 were 14.1, 11.7, and 22.2 respectively, up from 12.2, 10.2, and 20.5 in April[11] Group 2: Tariff Environment Differences - The current tariff escalation has exceeded market expectations, but the market's psychological resilience is stronger than in April[3] - In April, there was less than a 15% probability that tariffs would be reduced, while now the market perceives a higher likelihood of a TACO deal[3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Environment Differences - The foreign trade environment in China is significantly better than in April, aided by a global interest rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve[4] - The global manufacturing PMI has rebounded since April, indicating improved expectations for industrial production cycles[4] Group 4: Macro Environment Differences - Both China and the U.S. face short-term macroeconomic pressures, but mid-term conditions are expected to improve compared to April[5] - In China, the shift from precautionary savings to normal deposits indicates a recovery in the private sector economy, with M1 growth continuing to rise[5] Group 5: Exchange Rate Environment Differences - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with increased flexibility viewed as beneficial for macroeconomic control[7] - For the USD, the risk of further depreciation is limited due to a high level of hedging by overseas investors and a neutral skew in options volatility[7]