2月28日，瑞银首席股票策略师调低了对美股的展望，理由是美元走弱风险加大、股市估值过高，以及 华盛顿政策动荡带来的不确定性日益上升。 瑞银全球股票策略主管Andrew Garthwaite将美国股票在全球股票投资组合中的评级下调至"基 准"（benchmark）。他认为，过去多年推动美股持续跑赢全球市场的因素正在逐渐消退。 Garthwaite指出，美元风险是核心担忧。根据该行的预测，欧元兑美元将在第一季度末升至1.22，并认 为美元面临"结构性的、非对称的下行风险"。 年初至今，MSCI世界（除美国）指数已累涨约8%，日经225指数累涨17%，Stoxx欧洲600指数涨7%。 标普500指数几乎原地踏步，凸显资金 正明显从美股轮动撤离。 与此同时，投资者担忧人工智能投资热潮的潜在风险及美国国内持续的通胀压力，令美股周五再度承 压。 该行称，美国股息加回购构成的"股东回报收益率"如今只有欧洲的一半左右。Garthwaite写道："回购收 益率已不再突出，它曾是资金流向、EPS增长和市值提升的重要驱动力。" 不过，这位策略师并未完全转向看空。Garthwaite表示，在市场处于潜在泡沫的早期阶段时，美国经济 和 ...

Core Insights - The stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 index up about 16% this year, despite concerns over economic conditions and tariff policies [3][7] - A Federal Reserve study indicates that tariffs are likely to raise unemployment and slow GDP growth in the near term, which could lead to a significant market downturn [4][9] Economic Conditions - Consumer confidence is declining, and the U.S. unemployment rate has reached its highest level in years, indicating a weakening economy [3] - The stock market and the U.S. economy are not always aligned, as evidenced by the current strong stock values amidst deteriorating economic conditions [5] Market Valuation - The S&P 500 is trading at over 23 times forward earnings, marking one of its highest valuations in decades, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [5][7] - Overvaluation of stocks typically signals that the market may be overdue for a correction, especially in light of negative economic indicators [6][8]

Group 1 - The probability of the S&P 500 index declining by 30% or more at some point in 2026 is estimated to be 8-10% based on options market pricing [1] - Historical data shows that the average interval between significant declines of 30% or more in the S&P 500 index is 12.7 years since World War II, slightly reduced to 11.8 years since 1982 [1] - Market downturns tend to cluster, with significant declines occurring in short succession followed by long periods of stability [1] Group 2 - The "misery index," which combines unemployment and year-over-year inflation rates, rose from 5.5 to 16 between 1966 and 1982, indicating a period of frequent market downturns [2] - Currently, the misery index has increased from 5.2 in 2019 to 7.4, suggesting a potential shift towards more frequent economic recessions [2] Group 3 - The gig economy is acting as a "safety valve" for unemployed workers, explaining why unemployment has not led to a surge in unemployment insurance claims [3] - The number of self-employed workers surged from 9.7 million in September to 10.3 million in November, with the proportion of workers holding multiple jobs rising to 5.7%, the highest level since the 2008-09 recession [3] Group 4 - Despite a weakening economy, the stock market remains overvalued by most measures, with proprietary liquidity indices indicating downward pressure on the market [4] - There is skepticism regarding the widely held belief that economic growth will be stronger with higher inflation by 2026, as such clear forecasts rarely materialize as expected [4] - Current economic pressures, high stock market valuations, and the rising misery index suggest that the pricing of downside risk insurance (i.e., put options) may still be undervalued [4]