布利茨指出，零工经济已成为失业工人的一个"安全阀"，这有助于解释为何失业并未转化为失业保险申 请数量的激增。布利茨指出："例如，开优步的收入高于失业保险金，没有领取的时间限制，而且只要 高端就业岗位保持稳定——这在很大程度上得益于稳定或上升的股票价值——这种收入就会持续下 去。" 11月份，非公司形式的自雇工人数量从9月份的970万激增至1030万，而同时拥有多份工作的劳动者占总 就业人数的比例从5.4%上升至5.7%，均为2008-09年经济衰退以来的最高水平。 股市估值仍过高 TS Lombard经济学家史蒂文.布利茨(Steven Blitz)的一项最新分析显示，期权市场目前预估，标普500指 数在2026年某个时点下跌30%或以上的概率为8-10%。 通过观察标普500指数2026年12月到期的看跌期权，布利茨发现其定价与历史平均水平高度吻合。自二 战以来，标普500指数出现30%或以上跌幅(峰值到峰值衡量)的平均间隔为12.7年。自1982年以来，这一 平均间隔略微缩短至11.8年。布利茨在研究报告中写道："8%的概率对应着历史平均频率(每12.5年发生 一次暴跌)，10%的概率则意味着十分之一的几 ...

Group 1 - The recent comments by Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference have sparked market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks close to historical highs [1] - Investors are discussing effective ways to protect returns ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, employment and inflation data, and the Fed's interest rate decision [1] - There is a notable absence of buying call options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), which is typically a common hedging tool for investors [1] Group 2 - In the current market environment, vanilla put options or put spreads on the S&P 500 index are considered more reliable hedging tools, with a steep volatility skew helping to lower the cost of put spreads [2] - JPMorgan strategists have suggested a binary trading strategy betting on a decline of over 5% in the S&P 500 index by year-end, alongside a 0.2% rise in 10-year Treasury yields [2] - The high cost of VIX call options compared to S&P 500 put options is attributed to the rising volatility of VIX options relative to the low actual volatility of the S&P 500 [2] Group 3 - The steepness of the VIX futures term structure leads to higher holding costs, making call options less reliable and harder to realize profits [3] - Recent fund flows have shifted towards bullish funds, with over $2.5 billion flowing into leveraged VIX ETPs since April, while over $1 billion has exited inverse VIX funds [3] - The daily rebalancing of these products exacerbates the steepness of the term structure by selling short-term VIX futures and buying long-term contracts [3] Group 4 - Leveraged VIX ETPs may amplify volatility, as they buy futures during volatility spikes and sell during declines, potentially leading to significant futures sell-offs during market downturns [4] - Historical performance shows that S&P 500 put options outperformed VIX call options during low volatility sell-offs, indicating a preference for simpler hedging strategies [4] Group 5 - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is a key event before the September Fed meeting, with options markets indicating a potential 5.8% volatility post-report, consistent with the average volatility over the past eight quarters [5] - Nvidia is considered a crucial stock in the market, and any failure to validate the current AI-driven bull market could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that global fund managers are rapidly moving into risk assets, with cash allocations dropping below 4%, indicating a potential market overheating situation [1][2] - The "bubble trio" indicators tracked by Hartnett's team have all signaled red, with cash holdings at 3.9%, 93% of fund managers betting on a "soft landing," and an over-allocation in stocks by 20% [2][4] - The current market conditions are reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, with significant investor enthusiasm for tech stocks, which Hartnett refers to as a "famous contrarian indicator" [4][2] Group 2 - XBIT decentralized exchange is gaining attention as a new hedge for institutional investors against market overheating, utilizing a non-custodial trading model that allows users to maintain control of their assets [5][6] - The platform has seen a 230% increase in daily trading volume since July, with stablecoin trading pairs making up 47% of transactions, indicating a shift towards stable assets during Fed policy uncertainty [5][8] - XBIT's decentralized architecture offers three key advantages: non-custodial trading, censorship resistance, and low-cost hedging options, making it an attractive choice for investors [6][8] Group 3 - Despite 83% of institutional clients being bullish on U.S. stocks, 17% have started allocating to non-dollar assets like gold and Bitcoin through decentralized platforms [8][11] - The volatility index for XBIT has risen to 45.8, suggesting that professional investors are actively purchasing put options, indicating a cautious outlook for the market [9] - HSBC's report indicates that ongoing White House interference with Fed decisions is undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency, leading to increased trading volumes in other currencies on the XBIT platform [11]

Group 1 - Financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Castle Securities, are advising clients to purchase inexpensive hedging tools to protect against potential losses in the U.S. stock market [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has surged 28% since its low on April 8, and the "fear index" has reached its lowest level since February, making the cost of hedging against market declines very low [1][3] - Goldman Sachs noted that if clients feel anxious, the market is making hedging operations very easy to execute [1] Group 2 - The market faces several potential adverse events, including the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and unresolved trade agreements with major partners like Mexico and Canada [3] - The non-farm payroll report for July is expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's policy in the coming months, alongside important earnings reports from major tech companies [3] - Bank of America suggested that it is time to buy volatility, as the VIX index typically reaches its lowest point in July [3] Group 3 - There is a belief that the current upward trend in the market will continue, supported by retail investors [5] - If the Federal Reserve finds that tariffs do not drive inflation or hinder economic growth, a rate cut in September could further boost the stock market [5] - Institutional investors' long positions are nearing highs, and they may soon slow down their buying pace [5] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to engage in hedging operations set to expire in September to mitigate risks from significant events [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically the worst-performing month for the U.S. stock market [5]