Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liao Chenyue [1] - Investment Advisory License Number: Z0022951 [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Review - The stock index showed strong performance today. The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.95%. [2] - The trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 84.374 billion yuan. [2] - Among stock index futures, IC rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume. [2] Group 3: Important Information - Chinese President had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both" and highlighting the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis. [3] - Waller, a Fed governor and a leading candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly worried about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December. Daly, the former San Francisco Fed President who usually followed Powell, also supports a December rate cut due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market. [3] - Japan plans to deploy offensive weapons on the south - western islands near Taiwan. China's Foreign Ministry responded that this move is extremely dangerous and requires high - level vigilance. [3] Group 4: Core View - Fed officials' dovish remarks last night increased the probability of a December rate cut to over 80%, supporting the repair of the stock index valuation. The positive signals from the China - US call also restored market risk appetite, leading to a higher - opening and higher - closing stock index today. [4] - However, the Sino - Japanese issue remains unresolved. Although the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, it was still below 2 trillion yuan, and the collective deepening of the discount of stock index futures indicates cautious market sentiment. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and gradually fill the previous gap. Future trends depend on external changes. If Sino - Japanese relations ease and the US PCE price index meets or is lower than market expectations, the stock index may continue to strengthen; otherwise, it is expected to continue to fluctuate after a phased rebound. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. [4] Group 6: Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.66 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.85 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.8933 | 4.3866 | 13.4717 | 21.3192 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 0.4758 | - 0.0889 | 0.2797 | - 1.0643 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4574 | 8.8482 | 25.8131 | 36.7936 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 0.3977 | - 0.0977 | 0.5282 | - 0.9256 | [4] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.87 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.53 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.33 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1812.147 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | 84.374 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill and the end of the 43 - day shutdown of the US government boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong performance of stock indices with increased trading volume today. However, the report believes that the rally driven solely by sentiment may not be sustainable. The decline in the volume - weighted average basis of IF, IH, and IC contracts, along with the deepening basis discount of the current and next - quarter contracts and the decrease in open interest of IM, indicate that the overall willingness of long - position holders to exit the market has increased, suggesting that market sentiment has not fully improved. - Attention should be paid to the domestic economic data to be released tomorrow. If the data is positive, it will strengthen the economic recovery logic, boost profit expectations, and drive the stock indices to transition from "shaking the bottom" to "valuation repair." If there are no obvious highlights and the weak recovery trend continues, the stock indices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Today, stock indices closed higher across the board. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 1.21%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 969.28 billion yuan. Stock index futures rose with shrinking volume [2]. Important Information - China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated that efforts should be made to prevent sharp market fluctuations. - Donald Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the shutdown of the US government [3]. Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market Observation** - The intraday price changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 1.06%, 0.81%, 1.71%, and 1.67% respectively. - The trading volumes were 111,869, 52,891, 132,224, and 214,803 lots respectively, with a decrease of 8,821, 1,184, 13,405, and 29,092 lots respectively compared to the previous day. - The open interests were 259,502, 96,315, 243,710, and 356,165 lots respectively, with a decrease of 13,919, 1,167, 19,353, and 20,677 lots respectively compared to the previous day [5]. - **Spot Market Observation** - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%. - The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 2.95. - The trading volume of the two markets was 20,419.62 billion yuan, with a rebound of 969.28 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report holds a positive view on the stock index. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to be volatile and strong, and in the medium - term, it is expected to rise. The overall reference view is also a rise. The main reasons include positive investor sentiment, policy support, and the inflow of incremental funds [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "volatile and strong", and the overall reference view is "rise". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, all stock indexes rose significantly, with a gain of over 2%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5788 trillion yuan, an increase of 87.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for multiple consecutive days, indicating positive investor sentiment [5]. - **Policy Support**: Policy expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure from the supply and demand sides, promote a moderate recovery of the price index, and help repair corporate profits, driving a positive cycle [5]. - **Funding Aspect**: The current funding situation is loose, and the yield of fixed - income assets is low. There is a strong demand for wealth management funds to transfer to high - yield assets, which will bring continuous incremental funds to the stock market. The significant year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July reflects this trend [5].