转自：中国经营网 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一鸣在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，人民币对美元汇率走强是国内外 多重因素共振的结果。 "国内方面，经济基本面稳健，前10个月银行结售汇顺差809亿美元，出口韧性带来持续结汇需求，构成 汇率走强的内在基础；海外方面，美元指数年内跌幅超8%，美联储自9月以来两次降息且12月降息预期 升温，为'美松中稳'的货币政策格局提供关键支撑。"郭一鸣解释说。 在美联储降息方面，近日多位美联储官员的表态进一步强化了政策宽松预期。旧金山联储总裁戴利明确 支持降息，认为就业市场突然恶化比通胀反弹更需警惕；同时，理事沃勒亦表示疲软的劳动力市场数据 为12月降息提供支撑；此外，理事米兰更呼吁大幅降息以尽快将利率降至中性水平。 芝商所美联储观察工具也显示，交易员对12月FOMC会议降息25个基点的概率已攀升至80%以上。 展望未来，郭一鸣认为，短期内人民币将维持偏强态势，但以稳为主，年底前快速破7可能性较低；中 短期"美松中稳"格局将持续支撑升值，中长期受益于跨境支付体系完善、去美元化加速等因素影响，人 民币系统性低估有望逐步修正，2026年或有望升破7.0关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, indicating a potential long-term appreciation trend for the RMB [1][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - On September 17, the offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0964 against the USD, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.1163, marking a 65 basis point increase from the previous trading day, the highest since November 6 of last year [1][2]. - The RMB has experienced two rounds of appreciation since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US in April, with the first round starting on May 10 and the second round from late August to the present [1]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising domestic asset values [3]. - The strengthening of the RMB is also influenced by a decline in the US dollar index due to signals from the Federal Reserve and improved domestic stock market performance, leading to increased foreign capital inflow [3]. - A growing global preference for Chinese equity assets has catalyzed the RMB's appreciation, with foreign capital net buying A-shares for the first time in months, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB is entering a long-term appreciation cycle, with Deutsche Bank forecasting the exchange rate to reach 7.0 by the end of 2025 [4]. - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate is expected to be characterized by "steady appreciation" and "two-way fluctuations" [3].