Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [9] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - Polysilicon: The new energy consumption index has a long - term positive impact but limited short - term influence. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of 0.85% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 287184 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49872 lots, a decrease of 33 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The prices in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang rose. The 97 - silicon price was slightly adjusted upward. The willingness of northern silicon enterprises to sell was positive, and their quotes were more advantageous than those of spot - futures traders. The increase in spot trading was less than that of the futures market [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC was stable. After two weeks of low - level operation, downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories, supported by pre - sold orders, were more willing to increase prices to stimulate orders and repair profit margins [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 opened high and closed low, with wide - range fluctuations. It opened at 55600 yuan/ton and closed at 53670 yuan/ton, a 0.51% change from the previous trading day. The position was 127779 lots, and the trading volume was 316394 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (with a 3.79% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a - 1.78% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31200.00 tons (a 3.31% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a 0.73% change) [6][7]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component Markets**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components were relatively stable [7]. - **Policy Impact**: The new energy consumption standard for polysilicon was more stringent. In the long run, it could control production capacity, but in the short term, the impact on supply might be limited as it was only a draft for comments [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price followed the futures price and increased slightly. The current fundamentals had little change. The futures market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there were policies for capacity withdrawal. If so, the futures price might rise [3]. Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals were average. The new energy consumption index had a long - term positive impact. The futures market was affected by policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. Participants should pay attention to risk management, follow the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to buy on dips [9].