Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor during the off-peak season, with both domestic and international travel thriving. The high load factor and slight recovery in ticket prices suggest a significant improvement in airline unit revenue. The implementation of "anti-involution" measures and the self-regulatory agreement by the China Air Transport Association is expected to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is likely to reduce costs, contributing to further profit growth for airlines. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors since early 2025, with both domestic and international routes performing well. The off-peak season is not as weak as expected, with high load factors and a slight recovery in ticket prices, indicating a potential significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of self-regulatory measures is expected to mitigate low pricing practices, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability [3][13]. 2. Off-Peak Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices 2.1 Supply and Demand - The capacity growth rate has rebounded, leading to an increase in passenger load factors. In October 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 6.2% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 87.4%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2.2 Ticket Prices - Ticket prices have weakened in December, with the average domestic ticket price at 839 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year. The average ticket price for domestic routes, including fuel, was 709 yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [4][23]. 2.3 Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has slightly increased in December, with the domestic aviation fuel price at 6045 yuan per ton, up 3.9% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0602 yuan per dollar as of December 16, 2025, down 1.78% from the end of 2024 [5][37]. 3. Airline Capacity and Load Factors 3.1 Operational Status - In November, most airlines maintained stable capacity growth, with significant increases in international capacity. The passenger load factors for both domestic and international routes have shown year-on-year improvements, significantly increasing compared to 2019 levels [4][43]. 3.2 Fleet Expansion - In November, Air China and China Southern Airlines each added 7 aircraft, marking the highest net increase among the six major airlines. From January to November, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines saw net increases of 47, 26, and 21 aircraft, respectively [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific maintains an "overweight" rating for Air China (00753), anticipating a turnaround in profitability by Q2 2025, contingent on the sustainable recovery of public and business demand over the next two years [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Air China reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan, a reduction of nearly 1 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - In Q2, the company achieved profitability of 2 million yuan, benefiting from a year-on-year recovery in public and business demand, alongside significant fuel cost reductions [1] Group 2: Capital Financing - Shenzhen Airlines, in which Air China holds a 51% stake, plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing in two phases, with Air China expected to contribute up to 8.16 billion yuan based on its ownership ratio [1] - The first phase of financing will involve a cash injection of 2.082 billion yuan from Air China and 2 billion yuan from new investors [1] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The analysis indicates that Air China's flight network and passenger sources have significantly improved, suggesting an upward shift in profitability [1] - Prior to 2019, Air China had the highest quality flight network and passenger sources in the industry, maintaining a leading profitability position among major airlines [1] - Following the introduction of a dual-airport system in Beijing, Air China strategically retained its operations at the capital airport, capitalizing on market opportunities [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]