Summary of the Conference Call on Aviation Power Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Aviation Power**, a company involved in the military aviation sector, particularly in engine manufacturing and maintenance. The discussion highlights the **military trade** industry and its growth potential, especially in the context of military aircraft deliveries and engine aftermarket services. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position and Valuation**: Aviation Power holds a position equivalent to aircraft manufacturers in military trade, possessing pricing power and negotiation capabilities. The company is currently undervalued and is considered a potential investment opportunity [2][3]. 2. **Growth in Military Aircraft Deliveries**: The increase in military aircraft deliveries is expected to drive demand for engine replacements and maintenance. This trend is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of maintenance and refurbishment needs [2][6]. 3. **Aftermarket Business Potential**: The aftermarket for aviation engines is characterized by high-value consumables with short maintenance intervals. The total market size for the domestic aviation engine aftermarket is projected to reach between **400 billion to 600 billion** by the end of 2024 [2][8][10]. 4. **Positive Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers**: The engine maintenance business significantly benefits aircraft manufacturers, as they hold pricing power in the maintenance segment. The profit margins from maintenance services are higher than those from new aircraft sales, which is expected to enhance the profitability of engine manufacturers [2][11]. 5. **New Aircraft Models**: The new **J-35 series** of fighter jets from AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, including variants designed for export, is expected to provide strong growth momentum. The certainty of production ramp-up for these models is high, with significant export potential [2][5][15]. 6. **Investment Thesis for Aviation Power**: The investment rationale for Aviation Power includes its independent status in military trade, increasing share of aftermarket business, and potential breakthroughs in domestic engine production capabilities [3][7]. 7. **Future Market Dynamics**: The next 20 years are expected to see a significant increase in aviation engine-related transactions and revenue, driven by the high-value consumable nature of engines and the growing demand for maintenance services [8][9]. 8. **Challenges and Opportunities for Domestic Engine Companies**: Domestic engine manufacturer **Daheng Power** faces challenges such as rising R&D and financial costs, but its gross margin remains stable. If margins improve, it could lead to significant stock price catalysts [12]. 9. **Importance of Control Systems**: Control systems are critical components in aviation engines, with domestic systems showing strong pricing power. The maintenance share of control systems is projected to grow from **8% in 2021 to 16% in 2024**, indicating rapid growth in this segment [13]. 10. **Beneficial Segments in the Aviation Engine Market**: Other segments benefiting from the aviation engine market include blades, coatings, and fasteners, with specific companies identified for their strong market positions in these areas [14]. Additional Insights - The J-35 fighter jet is positioned to enhance China's military trade competitiveness, breaking the trend of export models being less advanced than domestic ones. This positions AVIC Shenyang for significant growth in orders and revenue [15][20]. - The disparity in orders between the U.S. F-22 and F-35 is attributed to factors such as development costs, pricing strategies, and production capabilities, which may inform future strategies for Chinese military aircraft [17][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the military trade equipment sector, particularly focusing on aircraft engines as high-value consumables, which are expected to see increased demand due to long-term maintenance and replacement needs [10][15]. - The potential for domestic aircraft, such as the C919, to penetrate Southeast Asian markets is emphasized, with countries like Malaysia and Pakistan showing interest in adopting these aircraft [38][41]. - The report discusses the strategic positioning of companies like Huayin Technology in stealth materials and the anticipated growth in the ceramic-based composite materials sector [84][86]. Summary by Sections Military Trade Equipment - Aircraft engines hold a primary position in military trade, with their export share decreasing from 3.6% (2014-2018) to 2.0% (2019-2023) [14]. - The demand for maintenance and replacement of aircraft engines is driven by the long service life of military aircraft, which often exceeds the lifespan of the engines themselves [15][18]. C919 Aircraft - The C919 is expected to gain traction in Southeast Asia, with significant interest from Malaysian and Pakistani airlines [41][47]. - The global demand for commercial aircraft remains robust, with Airbus and Boeing having backlogs that exceed their annual delivery rates, indicating a favorable market for the C919 [47][55]. - The C919's production capacity is projected to increase significantly, with plans to reach 200 aircraft per year by 2029 [54][76]. Stealth Materials - Stealth technology is becoming a standard feature in advanced military aircraft, significantly enhancing their operational capabilities [86]. - The report identifies Huayin Technology as a key player in the stealth materials market, focusing on the development of ceramic-based composites [84][86]. Maintenance and Aftermarket - The military aircraft engine aftermarket is projected to exceed 428.7 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual market value of 21.44 billion yuan [25][28]. - Companies involved in the maintenance and aftermarket services for aircraft engines are expected to see substantial revenue growth as the market expands [28][31]. Supply Chain and Domestic Production - The report outlines the potential for increased domestic production and supply chain development for the C919, with a focus on enhancing the localization rate of components [77][80]. - The growth of domestic suppliers is anticipated to benefit from the increasing demand for locally produced aircraft and components [80][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the aerospace and defense sector, including 航发动力, 图南股份, 华秦科技, 航亚科技, 航材股份, and 应流股份 [10]. Core Insights - The aerospace engine market is expected to experience significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a substantial aftermarket potential exceeding 400 billion yuan over the next 20 years, driven by the high-value consumable nature of military engines [2][6][7]. - The maintenance market for military aerospace engines is projected to account for over 50% of the total lifecycle cost, indicating a strong demand for repair and maintenance services [6][25]. - The report highlights that the aftermarket for aerospace engines is approximately four times larger than the new engine market, with a significant portion of costs attributed to materials and maintenance [7][60]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The military aerospace engine's consumable nature necessitates multiple repairs throughout its lifecycle, with the lifespan of military aircraft often exceeding that of their engines [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the increasing frequency of engine replacements due to operational demands and technological advancements [21]. Aftermarket Potential - The future aftermarket space for military aerospace engines is estimated at approximately 428.74 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual market value of 21.44 billion yuan [7][57]. - The breakdown of the aftermarket includes approximately 5% for spare engines, 22% for engine repairs, and 51% for spare parts [60]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for maintenance and repair services will enhance the revenue and profitability of engine manufacturers, particularly as domestic production rates increase [8][14]. - The control systems segment of aerospace engines is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the maintenance and replacement market [8][16]. Company Performance - The report notes that key companies like 航发动力 have shown robust revenue growth in their aerospace engine and derivative product segments, with projected growth rates of 19% to 22% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [39][40].