端午假期日益临近，机票进入预订高峰。据航旅纵横大数据显示，截至5月27日，端午假期国内航线机 票预订量超293万张。国际航线机票预订量超62万张，比去年同期增长约19%，中短途热门航线机票预 订量同比增长近1倍。 近期，航空股频频活跃。富途牛牛显示，自4月8日起，港股航空概念指数累计涨幅已超30%，跑赢大 盘。 5月28日，在港股普跌走势中，航空股表现依旧强势。其中，中国东方航空股份（00670.HK）涨3.4%， 中国国航（00753.HK）涨2.05%，中国南方航空股份（01055.HK）涨2.56%，美兰空港（00357.HK）涨 1.36%。 今日A股航空板块虽稍逊港股同业，仍逆势走强彰显韧性。吉祥航空（603885.SH）涨1.71%，中国国航 （601111.SH）、南方航空（600029.SH）、中国东航（600115.SH）分别上涨0.87%、0.65%、0.5%。 近期，航空股反复活跃，或与市场预期向好有关。 然而，从业绩层面看，今年一季度，多家航空公司利润大幅缩水甚至亏损。业内人士分析，春节后出行 需求季节性回落，叠加以价换量;竞争，导致票价承压下行，航司陷入旺丁不旺财;的困境。 不过，高 ...

Group 1 - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.64, closing at $60.89 per barrel, a decrease of 1.04% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery dropped by $0.65, closing at $64.09 per barrel, a decline of 1.0% [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the international benchmark for crude oil, Brent, and the North American pricing benchmark, WTI, will be more subdued and persistently weak compared to the current low point in 2025-2026 [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicts that tariffs may further suppress the growth rate of supply in China's civil aviation industry, estimating an average annual growth rate of approximately 3.1% for passenger capacity (available seat kilometers) from 2025 to 2028, compared to 15.4% from 2009 to 2019 [1] - The average annual growth rate for passenger aircraft in the industry is expected to be only 2.8% during the same period [1] - The significant drop in oil prices since 2025 is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, providing a solid foundation for the initiation of an aviation cycle, with potential for substantial profit elasticity for airlines if the cycle turns upward [1] Group 3 - Leading companies in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (600029), Air China (601111), Capital Airport (00694), and China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The average annual growth rate of China's civil aviation passenger supply (available seat kilometers, ASK) is expected to be around 3.1% from 2025 to 2028, significantly lower than the 15.4% growth rate from 2009 to 2019, indicating a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [1][12][64]. Supply Growth Factors - The introduction of tariffs may further suppress the growth rate of China's civil aviation supply. Although the tariff rate has significantly decreased compared to April 2025, it still impacts the willingness of Chinese airlines to introduce new Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a longer recovery cycle for aircraft manufacturers' production capacity [3][6]. - As of April 2025, Chinese airlines have nearly 600 aircraft orders from Boeing and Airbus, with most deliveries concentrated between 2025 and 2027. However, there is a high uncertainty regarding delivery timelines, with an expected 25% of aircraft deliveries being delayed in the next three years [3][13][20]. - The impact of leased aircraft on China's aviation supply is expected to gradually diminish, as major airlines have substantial aircraft orders and are less inclined to expand their fleets through leasing due to rising leasing costs [3][43]. Aircraft Retirement Trends - The volume of aircraft retirements remains at a peak level, with the industry entering a phase of high aircraft retirements due to aging fleets and concentrated lease expirations. The retirement rate is projected to stabilize around 2.5% in the coming years [4][51]. - Factors affecting aviation supply include aircraft utilization rates, which are expected to gradually improve, and a trend of decreasing average seat numbers per aircraft due to the increasing proportion of smaller aircraft [4][59]. Tariff Impacts - The tariffs imposed on U.S. imports have increased the costs for Chinese airlines to acquire Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for new aircraft and delays in orders [6][30]. - The global supply chain for aircraft manufacturing remains tight, with tariffs exacerbating the situation by increasing the costs of imported components, thereby extending the aircraft maintenance cycles [8][7]. Production Capacity and Delivery Issues - The production capacity of Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC is affected by global supply chain constraints and tariffs, leading to slower recovery in production capacity and delivery timelines [7][20]. - The delivery peak for Airbus aircraft is expected in 2026, while Boeing's delivery peak is anticipated in 2027, with significant uncertainty surrounding the delivery schedules due to production capacity issues [21][34]. Market Dynamics - The average annual growth rate of the passenger fleet is projected to be 2.8% from 2025 to 2028, a significant decrease from pre-2020 levels, driven by rationalized aircraft acquisitions and the peak retirement phase in the aviation market [61][64]. - The demand for domestic aircraft, particularly the C919, is expected to grow, but actual delivery timelines may be extended due to production capacity constraints and tariff impacts [35][38].