1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate in the container shipping market remains weak, with a divergence expected in the second half of October. Traders are advised to take a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract and a short - position approach for the EC2510 contract [4][6]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, while the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term [17]. - The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market showing a preference for Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is on a rapid decline, but the decline rate is expected to slow in the second half of October. There is an expectation of rate hikes in the first half of October after the holiday. The EC2512 closed at 1623.4 points on September 23, down 1.84% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1052/TEU on September 19, down 8.84% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [4]. - Some shipping companies have started to adjust their October freight rates. The demand for peak - season cargo has declined from its peak, and the loading rate of mainstream shipping companies has dropped. The weekly average capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in October and an increase in September and November compared to the previous week. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56% [5]. - Trading strategies include taking profit on short positions of EC2510 at low prices, taking a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract, conducting a reverse spread operation for the 10 - 12 spread at low prices, and entering a long - position for the 2 - 4 spread at low prices [6][7]. Industry News - The Fed's Bostic and Musalem believe there is limited room for further interest rate cuts, and if inflation risks increase, they will not support further cuts [7]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's consumer confidence index in September is - 14.9, better than expected [8]. - As of the end of August 2025, there are 534 container ship orders that can use alternative fuels, accounting for 53% of the total number of ordered ships and 77% of the total capacity (TEU) [8]. - Shenzhen Maritime Department has implemented a management measure of "only departure, no entry" for large container liners since 2:00 on September 22 [8]. - Shanghai Port Energy will provide biomass methanol fueling services for CMA CGM's methanol - powered ships during their berthing and cargo handling at Shanghai Port [8]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation continues, with Israel intensifying its actions in the Gaza Strip, and multiple countries recognizing the State of Palestine [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped slightly on Monday, with almost all types of ship freight indices falling. The BDI decreased by 31 points or 1.41% to 2172 points. The Capesize ship freight index dropped by 72 points or 2.1% to 3365 points, and the Panamax ship freight index dropped by 23 points or 1.3% to 1822 points [13]. - On September 22, the freight rate for the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.85/ton, up 0.30% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.78/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month. As of September 19, the weekly freight rate for the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $13.00/ton, up 7.44% week - on - week [14]. - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, a decrease of 2.483 million tons month - on - month. Brazil's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in September are expected to increase [15]. - Guinea's Nimba Mining SA has a strengthening expectation of resuming production, which may bring incremental transportation demand to the large - vessel Atlantic market [16]. - The large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, and the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term due to weakening transportation demand [17]. Industry News - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, their derivatives, corn, and wheat from September 22 to October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion [18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for the added value of the steel industry [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On September 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1128, down 1.31% month - on - month and up 30.40% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 620, up 0.32% month - on - month and up 6.53% year - on - year. The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market preferring Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. Industry News - Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October [22]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day in July to 9.201 million barrels per day [22]. - Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change its energy relationship with India [22]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of shipping indices such as SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BPI, BCI, BSI, BDTI, BCTI, as well as the basis of EC10 and EC12 contracts, and the long - term average earnings and TCE of three major types of crude oil tankers [25][34][43]

Group 1 - The shipping industry is experiencing a downturn in demand during the traditional peak season of July, with insufficient cargo supply affecting both European and American routes [1] - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped to 1592.59 points on July 25, marking a 3.3% decrease and a 28.91% decline from the peak on June 6 [1] - Freight rates for shipping from Shanghai to the West Coast and East Coast of the U.S. have decreased significantly, with rates falling by 63.13% and 51.31% respectively from their recent highs [1] Group 2 - The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reported a 3.3% week-on-week decline, averaging $2517 per FEU, continuing a six-week downward trend [2] - Shipping companies are beginning to reduce capacity in an effort to stabilize freight rates, with the number of blank sailings expected to increase by 59% during weeks 30 to 34 [2] - BIMCO has revised its growth rate expectations for North American imports, predicting a modest annual growth rate of only 1.6% for 2025-2026, the lowest among global regions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market's EC盘面 maintains an overall volatile trend, with spot freight rates remaining relatively firm. The market is still speculating on the timing of the freight rate peak and the subsequent decline rate. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and geopolitical dynamics [4][5]. - The dry - bulk shipping market shows that large - vessel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to be strongly volatile. The tense situation in the Red Sea may increase shipping costs [15][19]. - In the tanker shipping market, short - term freight rate increases are mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums. The impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On July 10, EC2508 closed at 2022.5 points, up 0.5% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2258.04 points on July 10, up 6.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% month - on - month [2][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs attention. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 284,900/289,500/298,700 TEU respectively, and the capacity in August and September has increased slightly compared to the previous schedule. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1 and announced new tariffs on multiple countries [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be volatile, focusing on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. Industry News - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors. He also issued trade letters to multiple countries on the 9th, announcing tariff rates on various countries' products [8]. - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US before August 1. The EU is ready to take counter - measures, with the first phase to take effect on July 14 [9]. - HD Korea Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering received contracts for 4 container ships worth approximately $610 million, and Navios Maritime Partners will sign a series of new container shipbuilding orders with HJ Shipbuilding worth about $460 million [9]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Israel and Hamas are in cease - fire negotiations, and Trump said there is a high possibility of resolving the Gaza issue this week [10][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1423 points, down 0.6%, the Capesize Index (BCI) fell 5.5% to 1654 points, the Panamax Index (BPI) rose 3.3% to 1621 points, and the Handysize Index (BSI) rose 2.3% to 1151 points [14][15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On July 9, the freight rate for the Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) route was $18.43/ton, down 0.11% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) route was $7.32/ton, down 2.66% month - on - month. As of July 4, the weekly freight rates for some routes showed different changes [15][16]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362,700 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, Brazil shipped 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, compared with 13.9596 million tons in July last year [17]. - **News**: The situation in the Red Sea is tense, with two bulk carriers attacked and sunk, which may increase the Red Sea detour ratio and shipping costs. Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils from July 6, 2025 [17][18]. Industry News - In June 2025, Vietnam's coal imports were 6.4568 million tons, up 1.44% year - on - year and down 10.38% month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative coal imports were 38.0258 million tons, up 13.75% year - on - year [20]. - Trump issued tariff letters to 8 countries on July 9, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50% [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rates**: On July 9, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 932, down 0.32% month - on - month and 12.41% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 537, up 0.56% month - on - month and down 36.75% year - on - year. The BDTI has declined recently, and the upward driving force of freight rates mainly comes from geopolitical conflict premiums [22][23]. Industry News - As of the week of July 9, Singapore's middle distillate inventory decreased by 149,000 barrels, light distillate inventory decreased by 368,000 barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels [24]. - In early July, the shipping prices of gasoline and diesel were supported but not significantly boosted. The new shipping orders of gasoline and diesel decreased or remained flat. The prices of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and diesel showed a downward trend [24]. - OPEC restricted five major news agencies from participating in the oil industry conference, raising concerns about the transparency of the global energy market [24][25].