Group 1 - The stock price of COSCO Shipping Holdings is reported at 15.40 yuan, down 0.10 yuan from the previous trading day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 15.29 yuan to 15.45 yuan and a total trading volume of 1.192 billion yuan [1] - COSCO Shipping Holdings operates in the shipping and port industry, focusing on container shipping and terminal operations, providing global maritime logistics services, and is a leading player in China's shipping sector with a network covering major global trade routes [1] - The company has completed a stock buyback of 2.146 billion yuan this year, ranking among the top in the A-share market for buyback scale, placing it in the top three according to the disclosed statistics of listed company buybacks [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the main capital outflow was 37.242 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 322 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The shipping industry is experiencing a downturn in demand during the traditional peak season of July, with insufficient cargo supply affecting both European and American routes [1] - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped to 1592.59 points on July 25, marking a 3.3% decrease and a 28.91% decline from the peak on June 6 [1] - Freight rates for shipping from Shanghai to the West Coast and East Coast of the U.S. have decreased significantly, with rates falling by 63.13% and 51.31% respectively from their recent highs [1] Group 2 - The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reported a 3.3% week-on-week decline, averaging $2517 per FEU, continuing a six-week downward trend [2] - Shipping companies are beginning to reduce capacity in an effort to stabilize freight rates, with the number of blank sailings expected to increase by 59% during weeks 30 to 34 [2] - BIMCO has revised its growth rate expectations for North American imports, predicting a modest annual growth rate of only 1.6% for 2025-2026, the lowest among global regions [2]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a supply-driven cycle, with technology fostering new platforms [1] - The shipping and aviation sectors are seeing efficiency declines rather than capacity shortages, influenced by geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions [2] - The logistics sector is shifting from growth to price-driven profitability, with a potential transition from trade to manufacturing [4] - New energy vehicles and autonomous driving are expected to lower transportation costs and create new platforms for ride-hailing and instant delivery services [5] Summary by Sections 1. Shipping and Aviation - The shipping cycle since 2020 has been characterized by a decline in operational efficiency rather than a shortage of capacity [2] - Future aviation cycles may also be driven by decreased aircraft turnover efficiency [2] 2. Ports and Highways - With demand growth slowing, the focus is shifting from new capacity expansion to the integration of existing capacities, which will determine profitability [3] - Mergers and acquisitions in the highway sector are expected to enhance return on equity (ROE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios [3] 3. Express Logistics - The growth rate of express delivery volumes is slowing, with single-package pricing becoming the main driver of profitability [4] - Future price competition may ease, and the transition from trade to manufacturing could influence profit growth [4] 4. Transportation Platforms - The emergence of new energy vehicles and autonomous driving technologies is expected to create significant cost savings and new business models in transportation [5] 5. Shipping Market Dynamics - Shipping rates are influenced by supply-demand cycles, with operational efficiency being a key factor [6][8] - Port congestion and rerouting of vessels have led to significant increases in shipping rates [10][11] 6. Oil Shipping - Oil tanker earnings are also subject to supply-demand dynamics, with operational efficiency impacting daily earnings [12][14] 7. Air Transportation - The aviation sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics by 2025, with demand gradually recovering post-pandemic [27][29] - The growth in the number of aircraft is projected to remain low, impacting operational efficiency [31][32] 8. Infrastructure Development - The growth rate of freight demand across highways, railways, and ports is expected to trend downward, affecting capacity expansion [39][41] - The integration of existing highway assets is becoming more prevalent as new construction slows [42][46] 9. Market Opportunities - The express delivery sector is witnessing a slowdown in volume growth, but revenue is still increasing due to rising e-commerce penetration [61][63] - Price competition in the express delivery market may ease, presenting investment opportunities [64][66] 10. Supply Chain Dynamics - The profitability of large commodity supply chain companies is closely tied to fluctuations in commodity prices [67][70] - The shift from trade to manufacturing in the supply chain sector is becoming more pronounced [71][73] 11. New Energy and Autonomous Transportation - The adoption of new energy vehicles is expected to significantly reduce transportation costs, while autonomous driving technologies are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency [77][79] - The rapid increase in the penetration of smart driving technologies is projected to reshape the transportation landscape [80][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Container shipping: The peak of the shipping season may be postponed, and the spot freight rate center may continue to rise. The trading strategy suggests a sideways trend for the single - side operation, with a focus on buying EC2512 at low prices, and a rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. - Dry bulk shipping: The large - vessel market is expected to be weak in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to have a slightly stronger and fluctuating freight rate [17]. - Oil shipping: The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on the freight rate needs to be monitored [21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the EC2508 contract closed at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The final delivery settlement price of the EC2506 contract was 1919.34 points. The SCFI European line reported $2030/TEU on June 27, up 10.6% week - on - week [2][4]. - The spot freight rate center has gradually recovered, with different quotes from major shipping companies. Some shipping companies have raised their freight rates for the second half of July [5]. - In terms of demand, July is the peak shipping season, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from July to September has increased compared to the previous schedule, and the market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Sideways. Consider a long - position strategy for EC2512 at low prices [6]. - Arbitrage: Rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [8]. Industry News - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU and the US are conducting trade negotiations on tariffs [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - The Baltic Dry Index dropped to 1489 points on Monday, the lowest since June 4. The Capesize ship freight index fell to 2111 points, the lowest since May 29, while the Panamax ship freight index rose to 1500 points, the highest since March 31 [13]. - As of June 30, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 4.54% week - on - week, while that from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 3.52% week - on - week. As of June 27, the freight rates of some coal and grain routes of Panamax ships had different changes [13][14]. - From June 23 to June 29, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [15][16]. Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 18.8 million tons. Guinea's bauxite exports in the first quarter increased by 39% year - on - year [18]. Oil Shipping Market Analysis - On June 30, the BDTI was 984, down 1.80% week - on - week and 12.22% year - on - year; the BCTI was 586, down 4.40% week - on - week and 28.54% year - on - year. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [21]. Industry News - The average price of crude oil in this cycle first rose and then fell, and the prices of gasoline and diesel may continue to decline. It is expected that oil prices will rise in the third quarter and be under pressure in the fourth quarter. As of June 30, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 17.54% week - on - week [22][23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the container shipping market, some shipping companies followed MSK to lower spot quotes, and the EC disk remained volatile and weak under pessimistic expectations. The latest SCFIS European line quote was in line with expectations. The spot freight rate has gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has led to concerns about a market inflection point. In the short term, the market sentiment is expected to be weak. The extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line, but the height of freight rates in the long - term is not optimistic. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July. The volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a five - day losing streak, driven by the rise in Panamax ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index declined, while the Supramax bulk carrier freight index increased. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [11][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Contract EC2506 closed at 1,885.3, down 0.15% with a trading volume of 783.0 hands (down 33.53%) and an open interest of 2,491.0 hands (down 10.27%) [2]. - Contract EC2508 closed at 1,740.2, down 1.79% with a trading volume of 50,789.0 hands (down 29.08%) and an open interest of 43,528.0 hands (down 2.82%) [2]. - Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. Month - to - Month Structure - The spread between EC06 - EC08 was 145, up 29; the spread between EC06 - EC10 was 593, up 9, etc. [2]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European line (weekly) was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week and down 59.35% year - on - year. SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week and down 48.74% year - on - year [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index (Daily) - BDI was 1681.00, up 0.42% day - on - day and down 15.82% year - on - year; BHSI was 628, unchanged day - on - day and down 16.60% year - on - year [11]. - Other indices also had corresponding changes [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Daily) - The freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.18 per ton, up 3.14% day - on - day; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $8.92 per ton, down 2.75% day - on - day [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Weekly) - The freight rate of the Capesize bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $22.95 per ton, down 16.09% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Panamax coal route from Samarinda, Indonesia to Ennore, India was $10.50 per ton, up 5.00% week - on - week [11]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [11]. Shipment Data - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3506.7 million tons, up 154.0 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3060.9 million tons, up 218.8 million tons week - on - week [13]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in June will reach 1437 million tons. In May, China imported 1211 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 37.5%, and 163 million tons from the US, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% [13]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has affected market sentiment. The extension of the tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July, and the volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be cautious and wait and see, paying attention to trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For arbitrage, the 6 - 8 reverse spread should be exited when it is high as EC06 approaches delivery, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be rolled [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize ship market in Australia was quiet with slightly lower freight rates, while the Atlantic market had more cargo and slightly higher freight rates. The Panamax ship market had more coal cargoes in July, and freight rates increased slightly. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. Industry News - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures to pressure the US [6]. - Powell said the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait and see before considering interest rate adjustments [7]. - Before the negotiation deadline, an EU official warned that the EU must issue a "credible threat" to retaliate in the trade war initiated by Trump [7]. - Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the cease - fire agreement but would not face consequences, and he no longer hoped for a regime change in Iran [8]. - Qatar's Prime Minister said that indirect talks between Hamas and Israel will be held in the next two days to reach a cease - fire agreement [8]. - The Israeli military chief of staff said the focus will return to Gaza to retrieve hostages and destroy Hamas' rule [8]. - Netanyahu refused Trump's request to completely cancel the strike on Iran [9]. - Netanyahu said Israel will take action with the same force if someone tries to resume the nuclear project [9]. - On June 24th, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a radar facility near Tehran, and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [9][16]. - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1257.2 million tons, up 31.0 million tons week - on - week [15]. - In May 2025, China imported 1247.7 million tons of coal from Indonesia, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.5% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].