2025年12月的最后几天，一张名为《扼喉》的海报迅速在互联网上传播开来。画面上，中国海警的执法人员正在通过直升机下滑，登上一艘满载美制武器的 货轮。这艘船正是大家熟知的长荣海运。这一消息一发布，岛内的舆论瞬间爆炸，国际社会也为之震动。 2025年12月30日上午，中国海警官方账号发布了 一张海报，立刻引发了广泛关注。海报的主角是一艘标有EVERGREEN字样的长荣货轮，大家很快就认出来了。而令所有人惊讶的是，货轮甲板上整齐地摆 放着一排排的美制海马斯高机动火箭炮系统。 海报上的两个字——扼喉——传达的信息非常直接清晰：如果敢运输这些违禁物资，我们就会进行检查，一旦查到，绝不放行。这张海报发布后，评论区瞬 间热议纷纷。大家纷纷表示：这才是大国的风范！该收拾长荣了，干得漂亮！以后谁还敢做这种事，得好好掂量一下自己的分量！ 更让人愤怒的是，长荣海运的利润中有一大部分来自中国大陆市场。根据公开财报显示，2021年，长荣海运净利润突破了2000亿新台币，业内分析认为其中 超过一半的利润来自大陆航线。上海港、天津港、深圳港、宁波港，这些大港口几乎都能看到长荣的船只。可他们在赚钱的同时，却在国际场合上搞一些让 人恶心的小 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total net revenues were reported at $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase from $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $29.7 million, compared to $27.6 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to $38.8 million from $36.1 million in Q3 2024 [25] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $4.27 and $4.25, respectively, compared to $3.97 and $3.95 for the same period last year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average time charter equivalent rate for vessels in Q3 2025 was $29,284 per day, compared to $26,446 per day in Q3 2024 [30] - Daily operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $7,246 per vessel per day, slightly down from $7,249 in Q3 2024 [31] - The cash flow break-even level for Q3 2025 was $13,073 per vessel per day, compared to $13,629 in Q3 2024 [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declined to its lowest level in nearly two years by late September 2025, but saw a 30% uptick in October and early November [10] - The global fleet expanded by 6% year-to-date, with idle capacity remaining practically nonexistent [11] - New building prices remained stable, with Korean and Japanese yards gradually increasing prices relative to Chinese yards [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a $20 million share repurchase plan, having repurchased 466,000 shares for approximately $10.5 million [4] - The company has extended charters for several vessels, indicating a strategy focused on securing long-term contracts [5][6] - The company is exploring additional vessel orders while maintaining a cautious approach to leverage, targeting around 50% [73] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains mixed, with time charter rates holding firm despite a decline in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index [18] - Concerns over oversupply and increased competition among carriers could pressure rates from 2027 onwards [48] - Management expressed confidence in the fleet's cash flow generation potential, with a break-even level well below current earnings [38] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 5% [4] - The total outstanding bank debt as of September 30, 2025, was about $224 million, with a cost of debt around 5.9% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for scheduled off-hire days for Q4 and 2026 - Management indicated minimal dry dockings expected, with likely off-hire for Q4 being almost zero [44][45] Question: Impact of container ship ordering on supply and rates - Management acknowledged that increased ordering could pressure rates from 2027, but noted strong coverage for 2027 with 52% locked in [48] Question: Willingness to book long-term contracts - Management explained that charters are eager to secure tonnage due to an aging fleet and increasing trade demands [62] Question: Remaining commitments for new builds - Management confirmed that approximately $200 million remains to be paid for new builds, with payments structured around delivery timelines [67] Question: Strategy on selling older assets - Management stated a conservative approach to scrapping older vessels if market conditions decline significantly [83][85]

马士基CEO柯文胜否认集装箱市场下行时会立即启动裁员。他于周四集团第三季度财报发布会上表示， 第三季度货运量增长但集装箱运费率下跌，集装箱市场预计将迎来下行，马士基将通过处置部分船舶应 对这一局面。 马士基在中期报告中指出，截至第三季度末，全球集装箱船队规模较去年同期增长7.6%。尽管马士基 预计2025年全年货运量将增长约4%（高于该公司此前预期），但柯文胜预测，船队规模增长迟早会超 过货运量增长。 "我们知道会有更多船舶交付，而且由于交付速度较快，这些新增船舶终将超过市场的所有增长幅 度，"这位CEO补充道，"当船舶数量达到这一水平，就会开始对运价形成压力。" 柯文胜表示，一旦出现这种情况，马士基已准备好控制成本，且首要举措将涉及该公司约750艘集装箱 船的船队。在航运公司可能被迫亏损运营的时期，马士基有四大举措可调整，以削减成本并维持运价稳 定。 1、让部分船舶停航待命，等待市场好转，这既能降低运营成本，也能减少市场运力。 "我们正努力保持良好运营状态，"柯文胜表示，"而当下行周期来临时——航运业总会在某个节点遭遇 下行……——关键在于具备极强的适应能力。"马士基在季度报告中明确了这家丹麦航运集团为集装 ...

Euroseas Ltd. Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Euroseas Ltd. operates in the container shipping industry, focusing on the feeder segment with a fleet of 22 vessels, including 15 feeder container ships and 7 intermediate-sized container ships, totaling over 67,000 TEU capacity [2][3] - The company has four vessels under construction, each with a capacity of 4,300 TEU, scheduled for delivery in late 2027 and early 2028 [3] Industry Context - The container shipping market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past 20 years, influenced by events such as China's WTO entry, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to unprecedented shipping rates [9][10] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the situation in the Red Sea, have further impacted shipping dynamics, creating additional demand for feeder services [10][11] Fleet and Operational Strategy - Euroseas is modernizing its fleet through a new building program and retrofitting older vessels to improve fuel efficiency, achieving fuel savings of approximately 25% [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of the feeder sector, which plays a critical role in distributing containers from major hubs to final destinations [7][15] Financial Performance - Euroseas reported $114 million in net revenue and an EBITDA of $76 million in the first half of the year, with average charter rates of $28,500 per day [18] - The company has 100% fleet employment for 2025 and 70% for 2026, with contracted rates exceeding $30,000 per day [17][18] - A dividend of $0.70 per quarter has been established, translating to a 5% annualized yield [19] Market Outlook and Challenges - The company faces uncertainties related to tariffs, the resolution of the Red Sea situation, and environmental regulations that may impact the shipping industry [11][12] - The supply of container ships is high, with a significant number of vessels under construction, which could affect future rates and demand [12][13] Investment Thesis - Euroseas believes that the feeder segment will experience different supply dynamics compared to the overall container ship market, with a low order book and a high percentage of older vessels likely to be removed from service [14][15] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with low leverage, a market value of the fleet significantly above debt levels, and a net asset value estimated at $80 per share, compared to a recent trading price of around $56 [20][21] Conclusion - Euroseas presents a compelling investment opportunity in the container shipping market, particularly in the feeder segment, with strong earnings visibility, a solid dividend yield, and potential for stock price appreciation [30]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing resilience and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping rates for the US routes, while European routes have declined. The SCFI index shows a week-on-week change of +17.0% for US routes and -11.2% for European routes [2] - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a strong recent increase in freight rates, with the BDI index up by 7.0% week-on-week, indicating potential demand improvements [2] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船), and China Merchants Jinling (招商南油) are highlighted as key players to watch due to their potential for growth and dividend yields [1] - High-dividend private enterprises like Seaspan (海丰国际) and Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流) are recommended for their short-term and long-term value propositions, particularly during the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The small container ship supply in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply over the next three years, while the proportion of older ships (over 25 years) is at 11.2% [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average capacity of vessels in the Asian region is concentrated in larger global operators, with the top ten companies holding about 70% of the capacity share, indicating a high chartering ratio [3] - The deployment of vessels in Asia is primarily focused on larger ships (3,000 TEU and above), which creates a competitive landscape with companies like Seaspan focusing on smaller vessels for regional routes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping demand from China to the U.S. is currently weak, with freight rates plummeting to their lowest levels in over a year and a half, primarily due to reduced shipping volumes and the impact of high U.S. tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - Container shipping freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $1,759 per 40-foot container as of August 15, down from a peak of $5,606 in early June [3]. - The freight rates have fallen below pre-agreement levels, reaching lows not seen since December 2021, indicating a significant decline in demand [3][6]. - The shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast have also decreased to their lowest levels since the end of 2023 [3]. Group 2: Shipping Volume and Demand - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has decreased by 25% year-on-year in the first week of August, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand [3][4]. - The U.S. National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 20% year-on-year decline in container imports for September, with expectations of continued decreases through the end of the year, projecting a 5.6% reduction for the entire year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite a temporary increase in shipping volume in July, the overall demand remains below last year's levels, with a reported 8% decrease in year-on-year shipping volume from China to the U.S. [9]. Group 3: Regional Shipping Dynamics - Southeast Asia has seen a 34% increase in shipping volume to the U.S., with significant growth from countries like Vietnam (34%), India (31%), and Malaysia (70%), indicating a shift in sourcing from China to other regions [10]. - The overall shipping volume from Asia to the U.S. increased by 1% in July, driven by a recovery in Chinese exports and active Southeast Asian exports [9]. - The return of vessels previously allocated to U.S. routes has led to a normalization of supply, causing freight rates on European and South American routes to decline as well [8].

Core Viewpoint - 德翔海运 is experiencing a significant stock price increase, attributed to strong mid-year earnings expectations and favorable market conditions [1] Company Summary - 德翔海运's stock rose over 12% during trading, currently up 7.03% at HKD 9.9, with a trading volume of HKD 195 million [1] - The company anticipates a mid-year profit of between USD 180 million to USD 200 million, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 220% to 255% [1] - The increase in profit is primarily driven by a rise in average freight rates and an increase in the number of vessels rented at higher rates, leading to increased charter income [1] Industry Summary - The formation of the 双子星联盟 is transforming shipping routes from pendulum-style to radial-style, increasing demand for smaller vessels [1] - The theoretical addition of 40 small container ships (2,000 TEU) to a weekly European route highlights the shift towards smaller vessels for efficiency [1] - The exemption of non-Chinese shipowners from the US 301 investigation for vessels under 4,000 TEU underscores the potential benefits of smaller ships amid market disruptions [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of $1.6645 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $630 million, up 79.7% [8]. - The increase in both volume and price contributed to the positive results, with a cargo volume of 1.83 million TEU, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, and an average revenue per container of $776 per TEU, a 22.77% increase [8]. - The company has a high dividend yield of 11.5%, with a dividend of HKD 1.30 per share and a payout ratio of approximately 73% [8]. - The demand for shipping services in Southeast Asia remains strong, with a 13% increase in exports from China to ASEAN countries in the first half of the year [8]. - The supply side is constrained by limited new orders for smaller container ships, with only 5.4% of the fleet having orders, and an aging fleet pushing for capacity exit [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: $2.429 billion - 2024: $3.058 billion - 2025E: $3.182 billion - 2026E: $2.962 billion - 2027E: $2.942 billion [7][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: $531 million - 2024: $1.028 billion - 2025E: $1.130 billion - 2026E: $859 million - 2027E: $790 million [7][12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 8.2 for 2025, which is below its historical range of 10-20 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a projected net profit of approximately $180-200 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 220%-225% compared to $56 million in the same period of 2024 [9] - The increase in performance is attributed to the rise in freight rates due to market conditions and the contribution of new capacity delivered in 2024 [9] - The report highlights strong freight performance in Southeast Asia, with significant year-on-year growth in freight rates and volumes [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections (in million USD): - 2023: 875 - 2024: 1,340 - 2025E: 1,351 - 2026E: 1,299 - 2027E: 1,539 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: -64% - 2024: 53% - 2025E: 0.8% - 2026E: -4% - 2027E: 19% [8] - Net profit projections (in million USD): - 2023: 21 - 2024: 366 - 2025E: 378 - 2026E: 334 - 2027E: 449 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -98% - 2024: 1,667% - 2025E: 3% - 2026E: -12% - 2027E: 34% [8] - The company maintains a low PE ratio of 4.8, significantly below comparable companies, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the Asian shipping industry, particularly the container shipping market, which is experiencing increased attention from the market participants [1] - The Asian shipping market is characterized as having a balanced supply and demand, with trends of industrial chain transfer and trade fragmentation potentially increasing trade demand [1] Key Insights on Demand - The Asian shipping lane is the second-largest segment in the international container shipping industry, accounting for approximately 31% of global trade volume in 2024 [2] - The growth rate of container shipping volume from 2001 to 2024 is projected at 6.85%, significantly higher than other routes [2] - Key factors driving the rapid growth of the Asian container market include: - High population base and consumption potential in the region - Ongoing industrialization in emerging economies, particularly ASEAN countries - RCEP's zero-tariff policies and other facilitative conditions enhancing regional trade [2] Supply Side Analysis - The new capacity in the Asian market is primarily composed of container ships under 3000 TEU, with an order backlog of only 3.6%, significantly lower than the industry average of 28.55% [3] - The proportion of ships over 20 years old is 24%, exceeding the industry average of 11% [3] - Clarkson's forecast indicates a capacity growth rate of 0.59% and -2.97% for ships under 3000 TEU over the next two years [3] Impact of Tariffs and Trade Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has led to significant adjustments in the import-export structure between China and the U.S., with a decline in China's share and an increase in ASEAN's share [4] - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have resulted in a substantial reduction of tariffs for a 90-day period, potentially leading to a surge in shipments from Asia to the U.S. [4] - The 301 tariff law may encourage shipowners to use smaller vessels, promoting trade fragmentation and sustaining high regional market demand [5] Company Comparisons - **HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine)** has the largest total capacity among competitors, ranking 15th globally, with a capacity 60% higher than that of Yang Ming and over double that of ZIM [6] - **Yang Ming** has the highest cumulative growth rate in self-owned capacity at 223%, while HMM's total capacity growth has been achieved mainly through leasing [6] - As of the end of 2024, HMM has the highest proportion of available capacity at 91%, followed by Yang Ming at 79% and ZIM at 52% [7] Financial Performance and Metrics - HMM's revenue structure shows a high proportion of income from Southeast Asia, while ZIM has a higher share from Northeast Asia [9] - HMM's gross and net profit margins are more stable compared to Yang Ming, with margins reaching 47-48% [11] - HMM has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 70% over the past five years, with a maximum of 94% [12] Investment Recommendations - The Asian shipping market is viewed as a high-quality segment within the container shipping industry, with balanced supply and demand dynamics [13] - Companies such as ZIM, HMM, and Yang Ming are expected to benefit from the sustained high market conditions [13] - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in tariffs, and increased competition [13]